Category Archives: Risk and risk management

So How Exactly Does Buffett Get Information Like This?

Reader Hubert soliders on in the lonely task of continued Lehman spadework. He highlighted this section of FCIC testimony from Warren Buffett:

I think that if Lehman had been less leveraged there would have been less problems in the way of problems. And part of that leverage arose from the use of derivatives. And part of the dislocation that took place afterwards arose from that. And there’s some interesting material if you look at, I don’t exactly what Lehman material I was looking at, but they had a netting arrangement with the Bank of America as I remember and, you know, the day before they went broke and these are very, very, very rough ﬁgures from memory, but as I remember the day before they went broke Bank of America was in a minus position of $600 million or something like that they had deposited which I think J.P. Morgan in relation to Lehman and I think that the day they went broke it reversed to a billion and a half in the other direction and those are big numbers.

Hubert muses:

At Least One Country With Big Banks is Not Afraid of Them

This development, which was cited in last week’s Eurointelligence, has not gotten the attention it warrants:

The Swiss government wants to impose capital requirements on their two internationally active big banks UBS and Credit Suisse that by far exceed what European or American regulators intend to ask their banks to do, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports.

Guest Post: Predicting the Improbable– Evidence from Playing the Lottery

By Claus Bjørn Jørgensen , Sigrid Suetens, and Jean-Robert Tyran. Cross posted from VoxEU.

Japan’s trio of tsunami, earthquake, and nuclear disaster has left the world stunned. As this column points out, even the experts were shocked. But while these events were highly unlikely, they were still possible. This column uses evidence from the Danish lottery to show that people tend to adjust their expectations of future events based on only small pockets of recent experience, often at their cost.

David Apgar: What Was So Unpredictable about Deepwater Horizon?

By David Apgar, the Director of ApgarPartners LLC, a new business that applies assumption-based metrics to the performance evaluation problems of development organizations, individual corporate executives, and emerging-markets investors, and author of Risk Intelligence (Harvard Business School Press 2006) and Relevance: Hitting Your Goals by Knowing What Matters (Jossey-Bass 2008). He blogs at WhatMatters.

It’s tempting to look for a little consolation on the anniversary of the oil spill from BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig in the idea that our worst industrial accidents are unpredictable and not the result of negligence. The only trouble is that the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico was predictable.

The FDIC’s Rosy, Theoretical, Misleading Lehman Resolution Counterfactual (or Why TBTF is Still TBTF)

The FDIC has released a document that purports to show how it could have successfully resolved Lehman Brothers using its new Title II resolution authority granted under Dodd Frank.

All I can say is that this is an interesting piece of creative writing. The Lehman counterfactual rests on a series of assumptions, which as I will discuss shortly, look pretty questionable. The most charitable assessment one can make comes from a famous exchange between two technologists. Trygve Reenskaug says: “In theory, practice is simple.” Alexandre Boily asks: “But, is it simple to practice theory?”.

But some longstanding Administration cheerleaders have jumped on the bandwagon, arguing that “pundits” have asserted “without evidence or analysis” that the resolution authority can’t work. That’s pretty amusing, given that Shiela Bair herself concedes, per the Financial Times, that the resolution authority will not work on a major international bank with retail and investment banking operations:

ETFs as Source of Systemic Risk?

Surprisingly little note has been paid to the discussion of ETFs in three reports issued last week by international regulatory heavyweights, namely, the IMF, the BIS, and the G20 Financial Stability Board.

Make no mistake: the authorities are worried. The BIS report, for instance, has an unflattering comparison on its first page, noting that now ETFs seem to be serving the same function for institutional investors now as structured credit products did in 2002-2003, with dealers pushing the envelope as far as “innovation” is concerned. The Financial Stability Board was more straightforward, flagging its concerns that ETFs could pose a threat to stability in its report title.

The regulators discussed the fact that “ETF” no longer stands for a single product. Most investors probably assume that an ETF is more or less a mutual fund, when in fact Eurobank affiliated groups’ products are typically synthetic (that is, they use derivatives rather than securities. There are even more structural variants, but we’ll stick to these two for the purpose of this post). And too often, the relationship between the ETF and the sponsor is not arm’s length.

Conflicted JP Morgan Next up for a Reputation Hit

Louise Story at the NYT has this: In the summer of 2007, as the first tremors of the coming financial crisis were being felt on Wall Street, top executives of JPMorgan Chase were raising red flags about a troubled investment vehicle called Sigma, which was based in London. But the bank chose not to move […]

INET: Can Sovereignty and Effective International Supervision be Reconciled? The Challenge of Large Complex Financial Institutions

Cross post of an INET conference session on Large Financial Institutions that Paul Volcker described as a “Revival Meeting”…

UK IBC report preview

The IBC, or ICB report is to be published at 7:00 on Monday morning, UK time.

A suspicious sniff at CoCos

Contingent Convertible bonds (“CoCos”) are supposed to address this nonsensical phenomenon: During the financial crisis a number of distressed banks were rescued by the public sector injecting funds in the form of common equity and other forms of Tier 1 capital. While this had the effect of supporting depositors it also meant that Tier 2 capital […]

Amar Bhidé on the Role of Human Judgment

Rob Johnson of INET interviews Amar Bhide, an old McKinsey colleague and author of the book A Call for Judgment. From the introduction to this video:

The Professor of International Business at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy criticizes the tendency in many quarters to rely on mathematical models to inform investment decisions. It’s that overreliance on models that tend to generalize and simplify that helped drive the world into the global financial crash of 2008 and the ensuing Great Recession. Bhidé makes a strong case that human actors need to immerse in the details of individual cases and weigh many different factors to come up with tailored decisions that more closely apply to the complexities of the real world. Bhide also argues that regulators need to take a similarly human-centered approach.

Quelle Surprise! Fed and Treasury Keen to Find As Few Systemically Risky Firms as Possible

We seem to be going back to the world before the crisis in number of respects. The first is that the Financial Times is again running rings around the Wall Street Journal on markets and financial services industry coverage. The crisis forced the Journal to throw a lot of resources on those beats, with the result that it became pretty competitive.

The second is that the authorities seem to be engaged in a weird form of cognitive dissonance. They clearly can’t pretend the crisis didn’t occur; if nothing else, all the extra new studies and rulemaking imposed by Dodd Frank make that impossible. Yet in every manner imaginable, they behave as if no financial markets near death event took place.

The object lesson of the evening is a story in the Financial Times on a battle between the FDIC, which is responsible for resolution of systemically important firms under Dodd Frank versus the Fed and Treasury. The struggle is over how many non-banks are to put on the systemically important watchlist as required by Dodd Frank. No one wants to be on that roster; it leads to the potential to be subject to all sorts of proctological examinations.

Quelle Surprise! Fed Lent Over $110 Billion Against Junk Collateral During Crisis

Former central banker Willem Buiter once remarked that the Federal Reserve’s “unusual and exigent circumstances” clause, which enables it to lend to “any individual, partnership or corporation” if it can’t get the dough from other banks, allows the Fed to lend against a dead dog if it so chooses.

It looks like the US central bank did precisely that.

Josh Rosner: Dodd Frank is a Farce on Too Big to Fail

Note: Josh Rosner, managing director of Graham Fisher & Co., submitted this written testimony for a March 30 panel for the House Oversight Committee that was cancelled. His testimony has been entered into the Congressional Record and will be available on the House Oversight Committee website in the near future. The text appears below..

Has Dodd-Frank Ended Too Big to Fail?

Almost three years have passed since the United States financial system shook, began to seize up, and threatened to bring the global economy crashing down. The seismic event followed a long period of neglect in bank supervision led by lobbyist-influenced legislators, “a chicken in every pot” administrations, and neutered bank examiners.

While the current cultural mythology suggests the underlying causes of the crisis were unobservable and unforeseeable, the reality is quite different. Structural changes in the mortgage finance system and the risks they posed were visible as early as 2001. Even as late as 2007 warnings of the misapplications of ratings in securitized assets such as collateralized debt obligations and the risks these errors posed to investors, to markets, and to the greater economy were either unseen or ignored by regulators who believed financial innovation meant that risk was “less concentrated in the banking system” and “made the economy less vulnerable to shocks that start in the financial system.” Borrowers, these regulators argued, had “a greater variety of credit sources and (had become) less vulnerable to the disruption of any one credit channel.”

In the wake of the crisis, and before either the Congressional Oversight Panel or the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission delivered their final reports on the causes of the crisis, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act. The act claimed to end the era of “too-big-to-fail” institutions and sought to address the fundamental structural weaknesses and conflicts within the financial system. To falsely declare an end to Too Big to Fail without actually accomplishing that end is more damaging to the credibility of U.S. markets than a failure to act at all. The historic understanding that our markets were the most free to fair competition, most well regulated and transparent, has been the underlying basis of our ability to attract foreign capital. It is this view that, in turn, had supported our markets as the deepest, broadest, and most liquid.

In fact, Dodd-Frank reinforces the market perception that a small and elite group of large firms are different from the rest.

OMG, Greenspan Claims Financial Rent Seeking Promotes Prosperity!

I was already mundo unhappy with an Alan Greenspan op-ed in the Financial Times, which takes issue with Dodd Frank for ultimately one and only one disingenuous and boneheaded reason: interfering with the rent seeking of the financial sector is a Bad Idea. It might lead those wonderful financial firms to go overseas! US companies and investors might not be able to get their debt fix as regularly or in an many convenient colors and flavors as they’ve become accustomed to! But the Maestro managed to outdo himself in the category of tarting up the destructive behaviors of our new financial overlords.

What about those regulators? Never never can they keep up with those clever bankers. Greenspan airbrushes out the fact that he is the single person most responsible for the need for massive catch-up. Not only due was he actively hostile to supervision (and if you breed for incompetence, you are certain to get it), but he also gave banks a green light to go hog wild in derivatives land. And on top of that, he allowed banks to develop their own risk models and metrics, which also insured the regulators would not be able to oversee effectively (there would be a completely different attitude and level of understanding if the regulators had adopted the posture that they weren’t going to approve new products unless they understood them and could also model the exposures).

And the most important omission is that the we just had a global economic near-death experience thanks to the recklessness of the financial best and brightest.