Category Archives: Risk and risk management

Satyajit Das: “EMH Funeral Oration”

By Satyajit Das, a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives John Cassidy (2009) How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities Like Mark Anthony with Julius Caesar, many have now come to bury the Efficient Market Hypothesis (“EMH”) rather than praise it. Amusingly, […]

Bair offers her own solution on bank compensation

By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Following up on Yves’ earlier piece on the Obama Administration’s banker windfall compensation tax scheme, I want to talk about a competing plan by Sheila Bair. While the first plan seems designed for political purposes in an election year, this plan is geared more toward the longer-term and systemic […]

Tom Adams: “TCW and Gundlach – Missing the Real Dirty Laundry”

By Thomas Adams, at Paykin Krieg and Adams, LLP, and a former managing director at Ambac and FGIC. The ugly mess at TCW over chief investment officer Jeff Gundlach’s recent departure, has prompted a number of headlines lately. I was surprised to learn that Gundlach had a number of dirty secrets, and not just the […]

More on Goldman Shorts: McClatchy Weighs In

McClatchy has a breathless piece up on CDOs and other “exotic” transactions that Goldman did in the Caymans (hat tip reader John D). The problem is that the author got his hands on some very solid information (prospectuses of 40 deals) but the story itself is a bit of muddle. While it has some helpful […]

Will Continued Stealth Bailout of Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects?

The Treasury Department, as reported by Bloomberg, and commented on by Rolfe Winkler and Huffington Post (among others) noted, considerably increased its Freddie and Fannie safety net, by removing all limits on the amounts on offer (an increase from a ceiling of $400 billion) and simultaneously allowing the two GSEs to increase their balance sheets […]

Guest Post: Princeton Economist and Computer Scientists Show that Derivatives Are Inherently Vulnerable to Fraud

By Washington’s Blog. As I have previously noted, credit default swaps are destabilizing for the economy. See this. And the models used to evaluate financial instruments – such as the Gaussian copula formula for CDOs – are inherently flawed. Now, Princeton University economists and computer scientists have demonstrated that financial derivatives are also inherently vulnerable […]

Bernanke Stonewalls and Prevaricates in Response to Questions by Sen. Bunning

Senator Jim Bunning gave a long, detailed, specific, and very good list of questions to Fed chair Ben Bernanke, and Bunning has posted the resulting Q&A on his website. I find this a pretty remarkable document. While a certain amount of bureaucratic jousting is to be expected (ie, there is a level of artful dodging […]

Volcker: Little Evidence Financial Innovation Has Helped Economy

Tall Paul is my hero. I would go further than he did in a speech in Sussex. The case can made that financial innovation of the OTC derivatives variety, which has mushroomed from 1992 onward, has been at best a wealth transfer device from the real economy to the financial economy, and has probably exacted […]

Will big banks now free of TARP’s shackles reach for yield?

By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. When I read Yves Smith’s recent comments on Bank of America’s repayment of its TARP funds, I couldn’t help but think of a post I wrote six months ago called "Asymmetric information and corporate governance in bank bailouts." The gist is of the post is about the same as […]

More on the Miller-Moore Amendment and Unintended Consequences

Yesterday, I went after two targets in one post. The primary one was Andrew Ross Sorkin, who despite the considerable reporting and storytelling skills he demonstrated in Too Big Too Fail, seemed unable to keep a heavy-handed pro-Fed posture out of an article yesterday on the Paul-Grayson-DeMint bill, which more popularly goes by monickers like […]

Guest Post: Senator Dodd has Introduced a Sweeping Financial Reform Bill. Please Help Me Figure Out If Its Good or Bad, and What Its Missing

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. A source on the Hill sent me the following summary of Senator Dodd’s proposed financial reform bill. My source notes: The summary leaves out Sections 1201-1204, which contain serious changes to the Federal Reserve bank structures, transparency elements, and restrictions on 13(3). Comments and observations are always welcome. Dodd […]

Einhorn: First, Let’s Kill All the Credit Default Swaps

David Einhorn, who enjoys his considerable reputation for hard-fought battles against firms with shaky finances and dubious accounting (Allied Capital and Lehman), has taken aim at a new and equally deserving target: credit default swaps. In an interesting bit of synchronicity, Einhorn’s comments in a letter to investors overlap to a considerable degree with a […]

Bullish data, recoveries, crashes and the psychology of forecasting redux

By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns If you have been wondering whether a statistical recovery is at hand, today’s ISM manufacturing report should be the clincher. The report was definitely bullish with the ISM index rising to 55.7 and sub-components supporting the understanding that the manufacturing sector is expanding. This is quite a contrast to […]

Guest Post: Galbraith Says Administration’s Sole Goal is to Restore System of 5 or 10 Years Ago, But Confidence Won’t be Restored Unless Fraud Which Caused the Crash is Investigated

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As I have repeatedly written, the largest U.S. banks have repeatedly gone bankrupt due to wild speculation which was blessed by the Fed, and then the government covered up their bankruptcy. Indeed, the New York Times writes today about one of the too big to fails: Over the past […]