Category Archives: Science and the scientific method

Philip Pilkington: Economics as Machine – The Nature and Folly of the Forecasters

By Philip Pilkington, a writer and research assistant at Kingston University in London. You can follow him on Twitter @pilkingtonphil

Too large a proportion of recent “mathematical” economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols.

– John Maynard Keynes

How the Koch Brothers Manipulate Climate Change Studies

By Joao Peixe. Cross posted from OilPrice

The Koch brothers, Charles and David, are the billionaire owners of Koch Industries, and two of the most obstinate climate change deniers out there.

Cathy O’Neil: Support Naked Capitalism

By Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist and member of the Occupy Wall Street Alternative Banking Group who blogs at mathbabe

Being a quantitative, experiment-minded person, I’ve decided to go about helping Yves Smith raise funds for Naked Capitalism using the scientific approach.

“The Drugs Don’t Work”: How the Medical-Industrial Complex Systematically Suppresses Negative Studies

We’ve written a lot about the scientism of mainstream economics, both here and in ECONNED, and how these trappings have let the discipline continue to have a special seat at the policy table despite ample evidence of its failure. As bad as this is, it pales in comparison to the overt corruption of science at work in the drug arena. Although this issue comes to light from time to time, often in the context of litigation, the lay public is largely ignorant of how systematic and pervasive the efforts are to undermine good research practice in order to foist more, expensive, and sometimes dangerous drugs onto patients.

New Study Finds “Severe Toxic Effects” of Pervasively Used Monsanto Herbicide Roundup and Roundup Ready GM Corn (Updated)

Although I generally refrain from posting on Big Ag and relegate the topic to Links, I have a special interest in Monsanto. Last year, I had wanted to devise a list or ranking of top predatory companies, but could not find a way to make the tally sufficiently objective to be as useful in calling them out as it ought to be. Nevertheless, no matter how many ways I looked at the issue, it was clear that any ranking would put Monsanto as number 1.

Exchange Rates and Modern Trade Theory: An Interview with John Harvey

John Harvey is Professor of Economics at Texas Christian University. He blogs at Forbes and is the author of the book ‘Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises: A Post-Keynesian Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination’

Interview conducted by Philip Pilkington

Philip Pilkington: Your book seeks to outline an alternative theory of what determines exchange rates in our world today.

Philip Pilkington: Divine Mathematics – Neoclassical Economics as Spiritual Meditation

By Philip Pilkington, a writer and journalist based in Dublin, Ireland. You can follow him on Twitter at @pilkingtonphil

The influence that mathematics has had on neoclassical economics is obviously quite profound. However, when looked at in detail it appears that a certain type of modern mathematics was in fact highly suited to the direction many in the economics profession took after the work of Leon Walras – the Frenchman who founded modern neoclassical economics – appeared on the scene. So, it should not be thought that it was simply the formal tools of mathematics that transformed neoclassical economics into the obscurantist doctrine it is today. Instead it should be understood that its obscurantist skeleton was ready and waiting for its mathematical flesh.

Risk is Always With Us

By Sell on News, a global macro analyst. Cross posted from MacroBusiness

A question that has been asked, but not nearly often enough, is why did the complex risk defrayal methods fail so completely during the global financial crisis?

Cathy O’Neil: Data Science – The Problem Isn’t Statisticians, It’s Too Many Poseurs

By Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist who lives in New York City and writes at mathbabe.org

Without naming names, I’d like to characterize problematic pseudo-mathematical behavior that I witness often enough that I’m consistently riled up.

Libor Scandal Apologist Avinash Persaud Displays Inability to Do Math

Nothing like putting your foot in mouth in public and chewing.

Richard Alford: Why Economists Have No Shame – Undue Confidence, False Precision, Risk and Monetary Policy

By Richard Alford, a former New York Fed economist. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side.

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. – Yogi Berra

Economic policymakers, pundits and academics continue to forecast the future course of the economy and predict the effects of possible policy initiatives with an air of scientific certainty. The high degree of confidence expressed in their forecasts, predictions and commentary continues unabated despite:

1. Only a small minority of economists and none of the central banks and treasury/finance ministries anticipated the financial crisis and the recession, and

2. At most only one of the currently competing macroeconomic models (which embody significantly different structures and implications for economic policy) can serve as a sound basis for policy.

The confidence and false precision in these forecasts and policy prescriptions reflect a continuing unwarranted faith in the models.

Insider Report on Big Pharma’s Corrupt Marketing and Phony Science

Francois T pointed to a post at the blog Health Care Renewal that summarizes an important insider report at the British Medical Journal on how much so-called medical research is of dubious validity, and performed to give talking points for marketing rather than to improve the lives of patients.

The reports on the corruption is big Pharma “research” are so rife that this account hardly qualifies as news. For fun, I dug up the notes from a 2004 study in which I interviewed some experts on drug company marketing. The reason? Even then, it was seen as the most effective, and a big financial services client was keen to see what techniques they could adopt from it. Even then, it was clear “research” was seen as key to effective selling. Per one interviewee, on sales reps: