Accident or Attack? Explosion at Iran’s Busiest Commercial Port Will Reverberate Beyond Bandar Abbas Either Way 

The fire was still raging Sunday at a segment of Iran’s most important port with helicopters and aircraft dumping water from the air in an attempt to extinguish it. Iran says the cause of the Saturday morning explosion at Shahid Rajaei port will be revealed after an investigation.

Initial speculation has centered around the possibility that flammable materials were mishandled at the storage facility or sabotage. It’s entirely possible it was an accident aided by years of US sanctions that have crippled Iran’s infrastructure and increased risks from aging equipment and poor maintenance.

But the timing is also incredibly coincidental as there have been reports recently that Israel would attack Iran in some form in an effort to derail the talks between Washington and Tehran.

Instead, Israeli and Western media are implicating Chinese missile fuel. The Times of Israel was reportedly the first outlet to make the connection between the blast and sodium perchlorate shipped from China. Some background from Maritime Executive:

In February and March, The Maritime Executive tracked the progress from China of two sanctioned ships owned by Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), MV Golbon and MV Jairan, which then unloaded their cargoes of sodium perchlorate at Bandar Abbas. Sodium perchlorate is processed and fashioned into ammonium perchlorate rocket fuel at the Iranian facilities at Parchin south of Tehran and Khojir. Ammonium perchlorate makes up 70 percent of the standard fuel load of most of Iran’s solid-fueled ballistic missiles, such as medium range Khybar-Shikan and Fattah missiles, and the shorter range Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles.

Other media outlets like the New York Times and Associated Press picked up the China connection and are running with it. According to the Times of Israel, “the fuel was going to be used to replenish Iran’s missile stocks, which had been depleted by its direct attacks on Israel during the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.”

Why it remained sitting in storage at the port remains unexplained. There’s also the fact that the commercial port is just 10 miles west of the Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor, which hosts Iran’s Navy. Why would missile fuel components be stored at the commercial port? They likely wouldn’t be:

Iranian officials have stated that Western claims about missile fuel are fake news. The released footage of the start of the fire confirms that the claims made by Western media are part of malicious psychological warfare. https://t.co/bStJ2zZVTg pic.twitter.com/mRrO1Yzp63

— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) April 27, 2025

In an interview on Sunday with the Islamic Republic News Agency, defense ministry spokesperson Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik said there were no military-related export or import cargoes at Shahid Rajaee Port. Iranian state media “indicated that the explosion likely originated from a fire at a hazardous and chemical materials storage depot, with multiple containers reported to have detonated”.

Israeli officials, for their part, denied playing any role in the blast. Many are nonetheless noting that the blast came as Iranian and US delegations held indirect nuclear talks in Oman and connecting the dots:

There is still no evidence yet as to whether the explosion in Bandar Abbas, Iran, that has left at least 500 people injured, was an accident, or whether it was an act of sabotage, and if the latter, by whom.

But it is happening in a context in which many of us had predicted… pic.twitter.com/94HLw37KAO

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 26, 2025

As of now, despite the talks between Tehran and Washington, the “maximum pressure” encirclement of Iran continues. If it indeed was an act of sabotage it fits with Israeli—and US— attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as their economic warfare and destabilization strategies.

It wasn’t even two weeks ago that the US launched a series of airstrikes on Yemen’s Ras Isa oil port in northwest Hodeidah. The bombings killed at least 80 people and injured hundreds. It also caused ongoing disruptions to the flow of fuel at the only major oil terminal controlled by the Houthis. Israel was also behind a cyberattack that brought activity to a halt at one of the Bandar Abbas port terminals in 2020.

Here is some background on the importance of Shahid Rajaee, from AFP:

The Shahid Rajaee Port is one of Iran’s most crucial maritime hubs, located on the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes. Spanning 2,400 hectares, with extensive warehousing and storage facilities, it is regarded as Iran’s largest and busiest commercial port.

The area has been designated a Special Economic Zone, serving as a key centre of Iran’s import, export and transshipment operations. Local media has reported that the port handles around 50 per cent of Iran’s total trade, and around 85-90 per cent of all container traffic.

Economic Fallout

Iranian officials said that all Bandar Abbas’ oil shipping infrastructure was unaffected by the explosion, but the economy could be harmed elsewhere as the Shahid Rajaei commercial port was affected. It could exacerbate existing problems with the Iranian economy, which include high inflation that is hitting food prices particularly hard and weak economic growth due to sanctions. Shahid Rajaei handles roughly 85 percent of Iran’s non-oil and gas exports and imports, and is connected to Iran’s transnational rail network. Here’s Financial Ports: 

Iran’s customs authority moved swiftly to suspend all imports and exports through the affected port, creating immediate bottlenecks for international shipping routes crucial to Iran’s economy. According to the Port and Maritime Organization of Iran, the port’s container terminals will remain closed until a thorough safety assessment is completed.

Some sections of Shahid Rajaei look to still be operating, however:

“Routine operations at the Shahid Rajaee port are ongoing”

Farzane Sadegh, Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development says routine operations at the Shahid Rajaee port are ongoing, emphasizing that the loading and unloading continue as scheduled. pic.twitter.com/uc1a6J7eED

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 27, 2025

Still, there is expected to be ripple effects from even a partial shutdown:

The Financial Ports platform noted that disruptions at Iranian ports could have a domino effect on shipping patterns across the Middle East and Asia, leading to rerouted cargo and longer delivery times. Shipping insurance premiums are also expected to rise sharply for vessels operating in or near Iranian waters until stability is restored.

The hope in Neocon-Zionist land is that the damage to Bandar Abbas will cause economic difficulties in Iran and help lead to a toppling of the government. Here’s the Middle East Forum reveling in the death and destruction and dreaming of regime change:

Apart from damaging the regime’s military capabilities, Shahid Rajaee Port is a major trade hub, handling 85 percent of the country’s total loading and unloading of goods, including electronics, agricultural products, and pharmaceutical raw materials. It contributes significantly to Iran’s gross domestic product. The explosion has left regime-linked traders and businessmen stunned, and disrupted their import-export trade. These businesspeople now will question the regime’s reliability and ability to create a stable economic sphere for its loyalists. Their frustration could weaken the regime’s economic credibility and encourage many in industry to turn against it.

Dissatisfaction with the regime will increase. Many workers suffered injuries and lost belongings. The frustration could be enough to trigger another round of protests calling for regime change. Even if such protests do not erupt, the explosion near Bandar Abbas will reinforce the perception that the regime is unstable, and its end is near. The Islamic Republic leadership is aware of the danger they now face. Regime outlets are instructing citizens to avoid fueling “rumors” that could “allow the enemies to take advantage of this situation.”

Whether accidental or not, the explosion exposes military, economic, and social weaknesses. The coincidence of talks between Iran and the United States on the same day as this explosion adds to the perception that the regime is doomed. One day before the explosion, President Donald Trump said in a Time interview that Israel will not drag the United States into war with Iran, but the United States will lead the charge if negotiators fail to reach a deal. Considering Trump’s ongoing decisions on Iran policy and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance on ending threats against Israel, Iranians may sense the chaos in Bandar Abbas is a sign for the people of Iran that the time to push for regime change is now.

I’m not sure why the frustration from business people and others would cause them to look longingly at the current Syrian model, but what do I know?

Unsurprisingly, due its prominence in Iranian trade, Shahid Rajee Port also played a prominent role in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)  linking Russia and India.

The INSTC would shorten shipping times between Russia and the Persian Gulf by 40 percent compared to Suez Canal and reduce reliance on Western-dominated maritime lanes, but Iran needs stability, international cooperation, and must fix structural issues at home in order to make it happen.

Russia has invested $1.3 billion to help Iran upgrade the Rasht-Astara railway, which runs over rough terrain and is the segment most holding the INSTC back from heavier usage.

The Eurasian Development Bank forecasts that the INSTC could generate $1.5 billion in transit revenue for Iran by 2030. But that’s if Tehran can succeed in infrastructure upgrades while overcoming sanctions and other destabilization efforts. The explosion at Bandar Abbas is an obvious setback.