[This Iran war post will be short because I had tech issues that required attention, plus in this overly dynamic situation, a lot could change quickly. This post should be complete by 7:30 AM EDT]
As readers likely know, Israel is doing its best to sabotage the US-Iran “deal” and has scored an initial success, with the talks scheduled to start in Switzerland postponed and no new date set. Israel intensified attacks in Lebanon and then mounted more fierce strikes immediately after yet another ceasefire was announced. Axios is again peddling more fake news, claiming that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is going to Switzerland for negotiations when no such thing is happening.
However, it seems the “deal” was destined not to get off the ground quickly as the US had no doubt hoped, because oil cliff. Iran is holding the US fast to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) language which as Iran parses it, sets other preconditions for talks beyond getting Israel out of the business of incorporating Lebanon into Greater Israel.
Finally, arguably the key issue. the status of the Strait of Hormuz given the negotiation dustup, remains unclear. Even if Trump musters up the will to come down on Israel, which the US can do, it seems likely to hold up the negotiation timetable by at least a couple of weeks as the cage match plays out. That brings the oil cliff even closer. As Robert Pape stressed, Iran’s negotiation power increases as the squeeze becomes imminent or even kicks in. The cost of having the Strait of Hormuz closed or throttled will become manifest, and lead to howls to Do Something.
Iran could elect to play a bit nicely by letting the ships bottled up the Gulf out, which will provide some additional supply and push out the arrival date of the energy cliff by an estimated week to ten days. But there is a huge furor in Iran over the official acceptance of the deal and then the US’ continuing failure to check Israel in Lebanon:
Many inside Iran are furious about the situation unfolding in Lebanon.
Experts, MPs, and ordinary people are calling on the SNSC members who approved the MoU (incl. Pezeshkian, Araghchi, Ghalibaf, and others) to respond to the breach of the MoU, namely the attacks on Lebanon. https://t.co/ssZuFESY82
— Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) June 19, 2026
The Supreme Leader also added to the controversy by effectively saying on Twitter that he was not keen about the pact but agreed because the Supreme National Security Council backed it.
Iran is also imposing an insurance regime, free for the first 60 days, which can be assumed to justify higher charges than could be defended as environment fees. Mind you, I cannot imagine anyone would assign monetary value to these policies, save as a guarantee that Iran will not fire on them. Insurance is a right to sue the insurer to get paid in the event of a claim. Think anyone is going to want to pursue litigation in Iran?
Now to uppack some of these issues, first to the continued negotiation impasse:
BREAKING: Iran rejects Axios new claim that FM Araghchi is traveling to Switzerland Saturday for negotiations, saying no meeting or negotiations will take place and no delegation will attend now or in the future unless Article 13 of the MOU is fully implemented first, per Tasnim.…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 20, 2026
There is no update on negotiations on Tasnim; PressTV instead has Pakistan’s interior minister travels to Tehran to discuss Iran-US negotiations, meaning the intermediaries are trying to get the talks back on track.
The hopium, it burns. From the top of Aljazeera’s live feed:
But see the summary:
- Pakistan and Qatar – mediators – are holding a series of meetings in Switzerland, Iran and Egypt and “the wheels of diplomacy” appear to be “back in motion” after a period of delay to the technical talks that were set to begin on Friday, according to Al Jazeera’s team on the ground.
- Iran’s deputy foreign minister has told Al Jazeera Tehran is “ready to move forward” on diplomacy with Washington, but the United States must ensure Israel abides by the terms of the deal to end the war.
Reader Johnnyme provided a summary of the Israel attacks that started a mere 5 minutes after the announcement of the latest Lebanon ceasefire:
Southern Lebanon hit by at least 12 Israeli strikes since ceasefire
At least 12 Israeli air strikes and ongoing artillery shelling have been reported in southern Lebanon since a ceasefire was reported to have taken effect at 4pm local time today (13:00 GMT).
Local time air strikes (UTC+3):
16:00 – Air strike on Kfar Reman
16:05 – Air strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa
16:10 – Air strike on Kfar Sir
16:14 – Second air strike on Kfar Sir
16:17 – Air strike on the Nabatieh–Zibdin–Choukin area
16:20 – Second air strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa
16:25 – Third air strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa
16:25 – Air strike on Jabal al-Rafie
16:36 – Air strike on al-Rayhan
16:41 – Air strike on Adshit
16:41 – Air strike on Masir Habboush
16:45 – Third air strike on Kfar SirIn addition, continuous artillery shelling has been reported in Nabatieh and the surrounding areas since 16:48 local time.
And the savagery continues. A few of many sightings on Twitter:
Multiple Israeli airstrikes in south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley over the past hour have left at least 11 people dead and over a dozen wounded.
According to preliminary figures, an intense airstrike targeting the town of Qanarit, located in the district of Sidon (Saida) killed… pic.twitter.com/VtiL6raO6V
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) June 20, 2026
Iran is also telling the US in no uncertain terms that if it does not leash and collar Israel soon, it will. From DropSite News in Iran Warned Trump: If You Do Not End War on Lebanon, We May Strike Israel Without Warning:
If President Donald Trump does not force Israel to halt its escalating attacks on Lebanon, Iran told mediators it is prepared to suspend the agreement signed this week and launch retaliatory strikes against Israel, a senior Iranian official told Drop Site.
“Regarding Lebanon, we have warned both the mediators and the American side that if the regime fails to comply with the existing agreement, Iran will respond with substantial military measures without prior public notice,” said the Iranian official, who is not authorized to speak publicly. “Should the United States intervene, conditions particularly those related to the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly revert to a wartime environment.”
Forgive me for posting this entire tweet but the analysis from Shaiel Ben-Ephraim is valuable:
Israel’s Lebanon campaign is becoming one of the greatest strategic blunders in its history. It is rebuilding Hezbollah’s prestige, wrecking ties with Washington, and spending elite officers on a line with no purpose. Here is how:
1) Senior officers know the current fighting serves no useful aim. The IDF holds a line ten kilometers inside Lebanon that does not even control fire over northern Israeli towns. The army tells the cabinet “you decide, we execute,” with no real debate on objectives.
2) The cost is rising fast. Lt. Col. Dor Ben-Simhon, commander of the 52nd Armored Battalion, and three of his tank crew were killed near the Ali Taher ridge. He was the fourth commander of that battalion since the war began. His three predecessors were all wounded.
3) It is rebuilding Hezbollah’s prestige and influence. Iran understands the trap Israel set for itself and is spurring Hezbollah on. A group that was battered now gets to stand firm against the IDF, link Lebanon to the Gulf, and extract concessions from Washington through Israel. Israel is handing it a comeback story.
4) It is wrecking the US relationship. Trump keeps imposing ceasefires because he fears Israel will sabotage his Iran track. Vance was blunt: Israel should stay quiet and accept terms because its dependence on the US is nearly total. He hinted at consequences, possibly even arms limits.
5) The political story is collapsing. Netanyahu cannot sell success when the Iran campaign ended without its promised achievements and soldiers keep falling in Lebanon. The polls are starting to show it.
6) The leadership is unserious. One minister called for killing a thousand Lebanese per IDF casualty. Another mourned Ben-Simhon and got his first name wrong. Not one government representative came to the battalion commander’s funeral. Bennett did.
7) It is weakening the Lebanese government. The Aoun-Salam government staked its credibility on disarming Hezbollah through the Lebanese army, a plan that was popular outside Hezbollah’s base. Continued Israeli strikes hand Hezbollah its strongest argument: it will not give up its weapons while Israel keeps bombing. Every strike undercuts the one government actually trying to disarm it.
Bottom line: Israel set out to restore deterrence and secure the north. Instead it is restoring Hezbollah’s standing, draining its friendship with Washington, and dying on a line with no purpose. Worst of all worlds. This could end with Hezbollah back in [charge]
John Mearsheimer repeatedly and forcefully maintains that Trump will come down on Israel because he must shut the war down to save the economy. While this seems inevitable, will he suffer interim TACOs?
More on the obstacles to getting the discussions going: Iran is insisting that the US perform on its MOU commitments before it gets out of bed. From The Cradle:
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, confirmed today that the meeting scheduled to take place in Switzerland has been postponed to a later date.
Baghaei said that, under Article 13 of the memorandum of understanding, negotiations on a final agreement can only begin once Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 are implemented and continue to be upheld.
Article 1 calls for the immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Articles 4 and 5 outline the reciprocal lifting of US and Iranian restrictions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Article 10 commits the United States to immediately issuing waivers for Iranian oil exports and related services, while Article 11 requires Washington to make Iran’s frozen and restricted funds and assets fully available for use.
He added that consultations through mediators are ongoing and that Iran will announce a new date for the talks once the necessary conditions for negotiations have been met.
Iran insisting on Articles 4 and 5 suggests Iran will do its part to “open” the Strait of Hormuz. However, the delay in starting the negotiations and Iran requiring insurance (more on that below) may deter more ship operators. A lower flow than otherwise might be expected again works to Iran’s benefit.
In somewhat more encouraging news, Larry Johnson, in a talk with Mohammed Marandi and Nima, cited some signs of the US pulling equipment out of the theater. This did not seem large scale even if a step in the right direction. Again recall that Richard Pape stressed that de-escalation was not real until the US started moving out men and materiel:
In that discussion, Professor Marandi described the status of the Strait of Hormuz as not open or closed, with the result that traffic was still moving through but at a low level. Consistent with Marandi’s view
Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours.@WindwardAI counts 26 tankers.
It is evident that IRGC continues to throttle traffic flow.
Maybe I was optimistic in assuming 30-40. Let's see.
Source: @MarineTraffic pic.twitter.com/qXXXHGX8Iv
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) June 19, 2026
But even though some accounts are cheering that the Strait has just seen more ship transits than April, Iranian vessels dominate:
‼️🚨🇮🇷 Non-stop movement of Iranian oil tankers from the Strait of Hormuz
Iran is mainly active in the Strait of Hormuz and will likely remain so until an agreement is reached. pic.twitter.com/CcUHZNFmgb
— Visioner (@visionergeo) June 20, 2026
And since Iran is getting as many of its own tankers out as possible, which go to China and thus won’t help the energy squeeze in the US.
Contrary to US wishes, Iran is insisting transiting vessels use its channel, on the north side of the Strait of Hormuz. Recall that the US push for de-mining was to reopen the old navigation channel, more or less in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz (assuming that Iran actually did mine it as opposed to relying on ship operator fears to do the hard work):
⚡️BREAKING: Iran's State TV announced that ships must follow the Sea Lane defined by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz
"If ships do not use the defined Sea lane, they may hit a mine, get into maritime accidents or come under an attack" pic.twitter.com/1uJVI45ILE
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) June 20, 2026
Lloyd’s List in Iran imposes mandatory insurance on ships transiting Strait of Hormuz, with fees likely to follow (hat tip Ann) describes the new Iran insurance scheme, which I am sure will have heads exploding in the US. The coverage also requires vessels to use the northern route:
- Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority is imposing mandatory, Iran‑approved insurance for all ships using the Strait of Hormuz — free for 60 days, but with fees likely afterward
- The move challenges a US-Iran agreement guaranteeing toll‑free passage
- Iran demands vessels use its preferred northern route, with threats of penalties for non‑compliance
- Shipowners, MEG states and IMO warn the policy could destabilise transit norms, while US officials emphasise keeping the strait open as negotiations continue on a long‑term framework
Again, this highlights a point we have made repeatedly: what the Iran and the US consider to be “open” are in different universes. From the article proper:
Despite a growing number of vessels now using a US‑protected southern corridor near the Oman coast, Iran insists that “passage is permitted only via the designated route near Larak Island”, referring to its preferred northern channel.
Enforce penalties for non‑compliance
“Any deviation… is strictly prohibited and will be treated as a violation,” the PGSA warns.
The authority says it is now the sole body responsible for processing transit applications and issuing permits, adding that it may “enforce penalties, revoke passage permissions, or take further legal action” for non‑compliance.
Lloyd’s List has requested comment from the PGSA.
Initial responses from several tanker owners using the southern route suggest that few believe the Iranian terms will provide a sustainable framework for vessels transits.
“It’s madness. This whole situation is a mess,” said one major tanker owner with ships currently exiting the strait…
Shipping companies, MEG allies, and oil majors have repeatedly warned that any transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz are unacceptable. IMO secretary‑general Arsenio Dominguez, who is working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism consistent with international law, has cautioned that allowing such charges would set a dangerous precedent for other strategic waterways. He confirmed receipt of the PGSA document and said discussions are ongoing.
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Hormuz “will be toll free during the first 60 days and thereafter”. Asked Thursday whether Washington would intervene to prevent future fees, vice-president JD Vance reiterated that the US believes “international waterways should be free of tolls”, but stressed that keeping the strait open is the overriding priority.
“The MOU contemplates that the Omanis, the Iranians, and the Gulf coast coalition together will figure out a proper security framework for the straits in the future,” Vance said, adding that the goal is to ensure the waterway is never again used as a chokepoint for the global economy.
Perhaps I am being unfair, but “unacceptable” regularly means “I am absolutely furious about a situation I cannot change.” Again remember that Iran is not a signatory to UNCLOS, which provides for “innocent passage” while Iran has long advocated “transit passage” rules, which allow for states bordering critical navigation channels to impose some restrictions.
Done for today! See you either tomorrow or Monday!
Sleepwalking into disaster.
What part of “it will soon be too late” do these Western geniuses not understand?
Time for a ‘Crazyman Cocktail?’
Maybe they are filled with Disneyland fantasies-
‘When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
If your heart is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star
As dreamers do
Fate is kind
She brings to those who love
The sweet fulfillment of
Their secret longing
Like a bolt out of the blue
Fate steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a star
Your dreams come true’
But then reality has a habit of slapping people like this up the side of their heads.
>But then reality has a habit of slapping people like this up the side of their heads.
I am reminded of the qoute, I think attributed to Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
Whatever the US/Isreal plan was, Iran took the hit, responded with a left jab and a vicious right hook is coming with the oil cliff.
No plan survives first contact
Bold to assume there was a plan beyond “this will be just like Venezuela”.
> But then reality has a habit of slapping people like this up the side of their heads.
It may be that our ‘elites’ do not care about the oil cliff and will continue hitting their head on the wall with token diplomacy while the world economy goes down the drain.
But why would you care about the world economy when the bailouts and bailins will come to you anyway…
I was a Tinkerbell fan, I thought Jiminy Cricket a bit shallow!
Leaving the whole wide West for a moment, and just focusing on the European Union, the conspiracy theorist in me feels that they intend to not-let-a-good-crisis-go-to-waste, and use those “turbulences” to implement those well-documented god-awful policies : digital ID, digital €, and maybe a smidge of war on Russia (why not?).
The idea being that they (would) think they can ride this tiger.
Riding a tiger is no real problem. It is when you try to get off and the tiger can then turn on you that things get hazardous to your health.
aka holding a tiger by the tail. / ;)
Catherine Austin Fitts shares some of those ideas, if not about Iran directly then with using a financial crisis however created to bring about digital ids, digital money, digital control, etc.
when i first ran across her, more than 20 years ago, i thought…well maybe,lol…but she seems a bit crazy.
i have been forced by subsequent events to amend this assessment.
only problem i still have with her is this idea that there’s a Plan,lol.
let alone some cabal of men in wingback chairs in walnut paneled rooms capable of formulating and then sticking to such a plan…and over decades, too.
like our Aurelian, i see little evidence of this…
“They”(and theres obviously many competing factions within that term) may think that they’re in control, but they are just as siloed and befuddled by their ideology/religion/unexamined assumptions as the majority of the bewildered herd that they presume to rule.
Sleepwalking indeed….was a time when Europe sleep-walked over 40-50 days in the Summer of 1914 into war.
The war would be over in a few weeks and and the boys would all be home by Christmas…. they said.
They were right in thinking that the boys would all be home by Christmas. Unfortunately it was Christmas 1918. And it was only those who had survived.
They also found they had a huge population of maiden aunts – ladies of marriageable age who would never find a husband.
And of course they had to keep the factories going. Mass immigration from Commonwealth countries (West Indies, India, Africa) sorted that problem out…
re: They also found they had a huge population of maiden aunts – ladies of marriageable age who would never find a husband.
It became know as “the lost generation” for a reason. Sacrificed on the alter of old-think, pride and hubris.
I recommend Barbara Tuchman’s book “The Proud Tower:A Portrait of the World Before the War 1890 1914 ”
It’s amazing how little has changed in Western elite thinking.
I recommend your local library or a local book shop. Listing this Amazon link for isbn ordering data from your local bookshop only.
https://www.amazon.com/Proud-Tower-Portrait-Before-1890-1914/dp/0345405013
Parts of the US “leadership” truly believe that the USA will be better off than the rest of the world if we do allow for an oil shortage. They don’t care if millions die from famine. Its either this or incompetence.
Parts of the US “leadership” are fools. Full stop.
And adding with some heat (apologies) : if anyone wants to “at” me with charges of antisem or anti-patriotism (yes, I’m going there), then well just fu. Mom was a DAR. Greatgrandmom was a survivor of the US Civil War.
If anybody wants to accuse me of something nefarious wrt my dear support of the US Constitution then go ahead…. Bring it! I will delight in knocking you out of the park.
s/ What? Antisem? You hate seeds? /s
Stay safe.
Oh yes, absolutely they are. And they have zero care for the people they serve, heck they probably think their MAGA supporters are fools.
Now the US Political Class must decide who they represent. Do they represent 9 million societal-suicide Zionists whose agents pervert the US political system with hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes (campaign contributions), or do they represent the best interests of 300+ million US citizens who want peace and prosperity.
Rarely in US politics is there such a stark,defining choice. Hopefully voters are paying attention.
“Hopefully voters are paying attention.”
Why, is there a non-zionist wing of the uniparty? You can vote for the kind pedos or you can vote for the nasty pedos, that’s the choice you get in the World’s Greatest Democracy™.
Yep. It’s TINA all the way down.
either america is a democracy and a plurality of americans don’t actually care about peace and prosperity, or it’s an authoritarian regime in which case what is voting going to do?
America was never a democracy. It was set up as a representational democracy, which is not the same thing.
The only choices our elections provide us are which group the next set of ins will get to crap all over; will it be the rednecks or the trannies or the evangelicals or the woke or cis-het white males or non-whites or gun owners or immigrants or “liberal communists” or (the rare one everybody can agree on) homeless people? Neither party has a popular program that it’s showed any seriousness about implementing, just more privatizing-deregulating-billionaire-enriching-stock-pumping economic policy—and the claim that they’ll make “those people” eat crow, “those people” being the ones their partisan media portray as causing all your troubles. Zionists are never among “those people”, since they own both parties and the media.
It seems the only reason the US has survived as long as it has is because in times of great crisis someone with sufficient vision has risen to the occasion and unified public opinion to affect a solution. Neither party has identified anyone to fix the current situation. I always thought Vance would be worse then Trump because he is smarter. But it may well fall to him in the near future when 47 is finally 86ed one way or another. Could he do it?
“Could he do it?”
I doubt it, but some of the comments of Abraham Lincoln by his contemporaries were truly vitriolic. One would think Lincoln was a not particularly smart baboon.
Is one choice: Ro Khanna.
• Refuses AIPAC money.
• Advocates for a billionaire tax
• Supports medicare for all
• Advocates with Massie for release of Epstein files.
• Asks how can banks borrow from Fed at Fed at 3% and charge credit card fees of 30%
• Has conducted a town hall every month he has been in office, nearing 100 town halls.
• Listens, takes all questions, no filters.
• Opposed Iran War
• Opposed §224 of the National Defense Authorization Act to join US military with Israel’s for all R&D, weapons procurement, and drone technology.
Holds these progressive positions, yet
• represents a district that is the corporate headquarters of 3 of the top 7 companies, Apple, Google, Nvidia, with all the rest (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla) having a significant presence.
• represents a district has cities that have a larger GDP than Israel’s.
• represents the second most wealthy district of the 435.
• represents a district that has a median household income of four of $197,000 and a housing average of $1,700,000.
Yet he is, and his progressive views are, overwhelmingly popular in his district.
Check Ro out.
Possibly more powerful factions exist than voters to end this war. That is, is it really voters’ key interests vs AIPAC-backed politicians, or is it Israeli right-winguts versus capital? Stocks don’t go up if gas hits $10 per gallon.
The “US Political Class” represents the people who pay for their campaigns, their Think Tanks, their NGOs, and their comfy retirements.
I’m pretty sure that only a minority of those donors hold Israel as their highest priority, but they are well organized, tightly focused, and willing & able to spend gobs of money. Also – unlike, say, the Gun Lobby – their direct opposition has $0 (and is organized by college students…).
Until other concentrations of capital realize that their priorities are endangered by blind US support for Israel, voters here will be stuck choosing between Red and Blue AIPAC candidates. I suppose there’s some reason to hope that the obvious stupidity of this damn war will draw more attention to the damage that our dedication to Israel causes to the USA…
Well, they sure don’t represent 300+million US citizens.
So by process of elimination …
Done for today! If you were an early arrival, please refresh this page and re-skim.
Big thanks for all your effort, Yves.
We’re having success in getting people to read NC’s coverage, both your articles and the excellent comments they bring. The prospect of not flailing in midair alongside a Times-informed Wiley Coyote is appealing.
Oh, thanks for sending the posts around to potentially sympathetic readers!
Israel has lost and so has the Hegemon, I suspect the Zionists to react irrationally, after all GOD PROMISED THEM VICTORY.
Oh Boy.
Denial followed by Rage.
Stupidity reigns.
It’s going to be a lively Summer.
It has been said by many many people that the USA and more specifically Trump are not agreement capable. Nothing has changed and nothing will. The United States of Israel will do what the real President Netenyahu wants them too. I think the plan was to sign this memorandum to open the straits and not fulfill the terms then when Iran closes the straits again try to blame them for the worldwide economic disaster that is coming our way. I was really hoping they would make this work for all of our sakes but apparently not.
According to axios, jd Vance is benched and kushner and witkoff are enroute to Switzerland.
Guess the negotiations are bound to fail.
What could Witkoff possibly say to the Iranians. Last time they met, Witkoff ran to Trump and made up a bs story how the Iranians told him they had enough material to make eleven nukes. The Iranians should record every single conversation to make sure that this does not happen again.
We need terminology adequate to a situation in which negotiations are resumed after one side’s team has been assassinated by the other side, and resumption only occurs because the assassins failed, while at the same time in no way acknowledging their offense. It’s a marvel how little attention that fundamental infraction receives. It would be absurd to fault Iranian conduct, though you wonder why they don’t at least begin each contact with a J’accuse! addressed both to USrael and the world audience.
The Iranians should not waste time talking to those flacks. It gives them a dignity, or the appearance of dignity, they do not deserve.
That story was fake news as we pointed out at the top.
They may have been the ones tasked to go from the US but it appears Iran decided to send its team only after the Strait was closed again, as in after it had made a very strong statement about its position.
Pakistani and Qatar negotiators had gone ahead. A big guy in the Pakistan foreign ministry visited Iran yesterday.
Vance says he will go soon. I think Vance has his hands full now trying to ‘splain the deal in the US:
Ravid now says Vance flying to Switzerland to be there tomorrow:
“he believes the ceasefire will hold between Iran and the United States”
nothing about a ceasefire between Israel and anyone
In my socialist/mixed economy degrowth utopia, all of the most prominent members of Trumpworld* will be given a, uh, choice, the better option in which will be to host a truly humiliating reality TV show, at the state’s pleasure. Witkoff and Kushner will have a Gordon Ramsay/Tabatha Coffey-styled one, where they attempt to help struggling small business owners. It.could be called Steve and Jared’ll Fix It, as it will probably not have enough UK viewership for this title to be problematic. It will basically be an unironic version of Nathan For You.
*The various Democrat dynasties and their hangers-on, who are not Comedy Gold, will simply have their assets confiscated.
It has been said by many many people that the USA and more specifically Trump are not agreement capable. Nothing has changed and nothing will.
I slightly disagree–the US (and Israel) has been agreement incapable **thus far** because neither country believes that it has to pay a significant price for breaking its agreements.
Iran and Russia (and perhaps China in the future) are increasingly demonstrating that the US will need to pay a price, and that the price will escalate over time. And as Pavlov showed, even the stupidest dog will eventually learn after subject to enough painful stimuli. It’s just a matter of time.
Problem with your line of thinking is that agency does not reside in a country, say US or Israel, but on its leadership and their influencers. These can be inclined to make the country pay a price if it suits them and as long as they personally believe is beneficial to their own interests which may not necessarily align with those of the country they lead.
Sometimes, not even a slap in the face is enough to change the course of action of such individuals. Yves Smith has stated a few or even several times there is a destructive aim behind this conflict and I agree with that wholeheartedly. I remember arguing with a commenter (not here at NC) when he reasoned by the end of March that we were only 3 weeks in the conflict and soon everything would follow its natural course and oil flows restored. He hadn’t realised how destructive was, and still is, the posture of the parts involved.
Regarding that Drop Site report that “Iran is also telling the US in no uncertain terms that if it does not leash and collar Israel soon, it will.” I have no detailed knowledge of how this works, but my understanding is that the US was crucial in providing air defense protection for Israel in the most active phase of the war. I realize this is unlikely, but what would happen if the US threatened to withhold this support? I assume that Israel would be more vulnerable to an Iranian missile/drone barrage. Perhaps if it continues its assault on Lebanon we could suggest that Israel “go it alone” against Iran and see what happens.
Again, I know this is not likely, but one can dream.
Getting Hormuz open and letting Israel get pounded sounds like a wonderful outcome we all can enjoy!!!
Might even boost trump’s approval rating. You can almost see him flipping the script on israel for the midterms, “No other president had the courage to stand up to Bibi and israel like I did!!!”
I know, I know…I’ll keep dreaming!!!
Trump is being boxed in and he knows it. Either he throws Israel under the bus – especially Netanyahu – or else he becomes known as the President that caused the Second Great Depression complete with Trumpvilles. And he will be still there having to deal with it all.
I keep coming back to what I think is the only way out of this situation. Very simplistic, but it offers diverse, if unpredictable paths out of the box Trump is now in. Either Trump or Nuttyahoo will have to depart, one way or another. “It was all HIS fault” will be the medicine administered to each society. Not a cure, but at least the patient can be stabilized at a lower level (of delusion?).
No, if the current arrangement finishes due to Netanyahoo being deposed one way or another, then there will be some embittered religious/military nutter with the goods who drops a bucket on Trump by way of the Epstein files,on behalf of Bibi. As in, if I go you go with me.
The only way this wouldn’t happen is if Trump goes out the door at the same time. That’s the way these things generally work. Messy.
I’ve been giving this much thought, not that it matters. My speculative TED talk:
If ethnic cleansing continues in Lebanon, Iran will inevitably strike. It’s in Iran’s military interest in to hit hard and hit strategically, which means hitting irreplaceable US assets on the ground- radars, KC-135 and KC-46 tankers, AWACS, etc.
If the US is serious about a negotiated settlement, removing those assets (if possible) is key to showing how serious this administration is taking to the process and also to preserve these irreplaceable assets from a surprise attack. Once those assets are out of the hot zone, not firing back against an Iranian attack becomes a strategic option for the US. That would give Iran assurance that the US might be agreement capable after all and give Israel notice that they are on their own. If there are actual direct communications between Iran and US, and there doesn’t appear to be any, the US could inform Iran that the US will tolerate strikes to stop Israel without response if no US assets are targeted etc., which technically would preserve the ceasefire between Iran and US.
Of course the US is being led by blithering idiots who follow mission-from-God warmongers in Israel around like puppies so none of the above will happen. But there’s is a way- removing critical assets and holding fire- for Trump to walk away from this fight.
Agreed, Trump can’t do much to change congress’s funding of Israel, but as commander in chief he could easily cause all the US support aircraft in and around Israel to be in Lakenheath or Ramstein tomorrow morning and their crews then home for the fourth of July celebrations. Meanwhile, Schrodinger’s straight can be both open and closed.
Professor Marandi described the status of the Strait of Hormuz as not open or closed
Caused me to think: ‘Schrödinger’s strait’
A web search for that shows I’m not the only one, Chazz included.
It appears that Trump chose capitulation over escalation by agreeing to the MoU (which is not a treaty and expires).
The reasons may be multiple. The oil cliff looms, the u.s. appears to be running low on costly missiles and surveillance devices (ground radar, awacs planes, etc), and the option of a ground war would be highly costly in blood as well as treasure, and lead to a very long quagmire slog with fairly certain results (failure for u.s.). Nuclear bombing would not be effective unless on such a scale as to render all of West Asia uninhabitable. In sum, while politically painful to declare victory and walk away Trump will continue to make the argument to Israel, and the billionaire backers of both MAGA and Israel, that the cost of a Great Depression level economic disaster would be worse than the option Trump is trying to take. In private he can make the claim that it was Israel’s plan and he went along with rolling the dice. Regime change in Iran failed, even after decapitation.
I don’t give the Trump regime credit for much, but as the song goes, “you got to know when to fold’em, know when to walk away…”
Robert Pape, not Richard
Will fix, I keep doing that.
Looking at maritime traffic and there are tankers moving through the strait. More than has been apparent for a long time. For now.
Not true, or at least no longer true:
See also:
The rise of AIS ‘trolling’ in the Strait of Hormuz
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/the-rise-of-ais-trolling-in-the-strait-of-hormuz?linkId=957649831
Mostly Iranian tankers, now that there’s no US blockade. Iran has no interest in blockading itself.
Correct, and as I pointed out above, going to China….which has been helping the world oil situation by 1. Being in more of a weak condition than most realize and 2. Drawing on its reserves rather than buying (much? any?) from the international markets. So this won’t alleviate the demand/supply situation much ex China. Getting the bottled-up tankers in the Gulf out will, albeit only on a short-lived basis.
smartest take yet on Brent
RySci 🛢
@The_RySci
·
17h
This is not correct. What’s being observed here in the PMPU category is almost entirely hedging related. What’s driving the increased net length is commercial hedgers reducing crude shorts as inventory is reduced and refineries (users) hedging inputs cost (long crude). You can see the level of producer hedging in the significant swap net short positions. Yes, there is some speculative positioning imbedded in the PMPU category due to trading houses speculative paper positions being included here but increased volatility means traders VaR limits reduced max position size. MM remains the category to watch to understand marginal trade flows. Today’s Brent CoT report shows a perfect example of stretched short MM positioning as a potential fade signal.
Quote
Beyond-Charting 📈
@Beyond_Charting
·
20h
#oil According to the COT report, large commercial/producers remain long at historically high levels. Folks, this is the smart money. I find it humorous reading how Fintwit posters believe they understand the market better. I will follow money over conjecture any day.
If I’m understanding correctly, PMPU is hedging long crude on the expectations of future crude input cost increases, markets are bearish, once physical realities kick in, these shorts will have to cover?
Feels like the calm before the storm where PMPU can lock in low input costs before shit really hits the fan
IANAL and all that, be we were always taught that “transit passage” was less restrictive than “innocent passage”, at least as far as “warships” were concerned. Since I was on active duty when UNCLOS went into effect, understanding the requirements was considered a big deal, notwithstanding that the US did not ratify it due to the Seabed Authority provisions.
Maybe the reference is to Art 45 which applies to transit passage reverting to innocent passage in certain situations.
I had listened to a discussion on DropSite. and the transit v. innocent point Iran had been concerned about was with respect to commercial ships. not warships.
They said that Iran had long favored the older more restrictive form, which I thought was transit passage, that their record was consistent that for decades, and that was why they did not sign UNCLOS, as in it was more permissive, as in the state has fewer rights. But
Strait is officially closed again. Reported in Middle East Spectator and I cross-checked with the official Pars Today channel.
Seat belts? We don’t need no stinking seat belts…
—–
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/33783
{And if they break their oaths after their treaty and defame your religion, then fight the leaders of disbelief, for indeed, there are no oaths sacred to them; so that they might cease} — Qur’an 9:12
‘In view of America’s blatant breach of promise and breach of contract regarding the failure to implement Paragraph 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding to end the war.
And in response to the continuous violations of the ceasefire by the Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the merciless killing and displacement of hundreds of thousands of the oppressed people of this land, and failure of the Israeli occupation forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon:
We announce that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to all vessels.
It is noted that this first step is a response to the enemy’s breach of promise, and if the aggression continues, further steps will be planned and taken to force the enemy to fulfill its obligations.’
Just picked up by The Hill (and sent in their e-mail alert) so word is getting out in US channels.
This is what I’m referring to in my comment above about the strange lack of reference to the February assassinations. The Iranians nail the current breach, but don’t refer to the more fundamental breach of promise to maintain a civilized negotiation relationship that occurred then, and which the current breach must strongly resonate with. It’s a bloody shirt that begs waving.
It is also the case that Israel initiated the conflict and participated in a depcapitation strike killing the Iranian religious, political and military leadership.
This was a premeditated act of war.
An unresolved state of war therefore exists between the parties Israel and Iran. Israel is unable to expempt itself from this fact. You cannot launch the Whermacht against Russia and the next day claim to be innocent and uninvolved.
Iran has legitimate grounds to target Israel and and use any and all means necessary to compel Israel to cease all military agression.
I am intellectually toying with a hypothesis that Iran has concluded that its must completely remove the US from the region (not just militarily) and wipe Israel off of the map. In this case, given its position and the power of its opponents, Iran needs to slowly squeeze like a python instead of the Western-preferred shock and awe tactics.
I think my hypothesis is maybe only 10% likely, but I am testing Iran’s actions (including its extreme patience) through this lens over time and seeing if it holds. If correct, Iran doesn’t want a long-term deal and will continually ratchet its negotiating demands over time to be too humiliating for Israel/US to accept but reasonable enough to justify given Israeli/American actions.
If correct (again, I am still leaning against it), then Israel is playing a very stupid game by seeing how far it can push without being attacked before it reduces tensions on its side–sort of the equivalent of seeing how many times you can play Russian Roulette before losing, I guess.
Either way, one of the craziest outcomes of all of the events since 2021 is that Israeli messaging and propaganda is so absolutely shit awful that it is almost inconceivable that it managed to get the West on its side for literally decades before this. I don’t even mean this rhetorically–it is really something that other states/propagandists/PR groups need to study and understand, because they need to ensure that they will not make the same mistakes in the future.
And again from the Shady Lady (NYT):
Mideast Live Updates: Iranian Forces Say They Closed Strait of Hormuz
‘One minister called for killing a thousand Lebanese per IDF casualty.’
That would be Ben-Gvir. Who else? Funny thing though-
‘Social media platform X has declined to remove a post by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir calling for the destruction of Lebanon, despite its rules prohibiting threats and incitement targeting people on the basis of ethnicity, national origin or religion.’
https://www.rt.com/news/641898-israeli-minister-x-burn-lebanon/
So why is Elon Musk giving this guy a free pass then? Trying to stay good with the Israeli government?
And trying to stay good with the US govt, and Congress, as much of his “wealth” and power is dependent on US govt. contracts. Also, like the other oligarchs, they benefit from US foreign policy.
Almost forgot: The Supreme Oligarch’s views on race: It would not be a stretch to say that he is in complete agreement with US/Israeli policy and mass murder of Palestinians and Lebanese. (He doesn’t give a fk about them at all, they are not really human beings and he is the Master of the Universe).
His companies are involved in helping with the War on Russia as well. It is becoming more difficult to determine where policy begins, since the US govt. and military is becoming more and more privatized.
0700 PDT
‘Why should we surrender?’: Hezbollah chief says group capable of victory
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-899943
Not to pick on you, Ann…
Even if they’re there not capable of victory, why surrender? They are being ethnically cleansed. I unfortunately got to to have a taste of this in MSP last winter. Surrender isn’t an option even if the situation requires subtle resistance instead of direct combat.
Being a Cynical Conspirationalist, I consider the past years’ “Street Theatre” starring ICE to be a test run for national implementation.
I used to ‘joke’ about converting the closed Bigg Boxx stores in the now moribund malls into FEMA Re-education Centres. That idea is starting to stop being purely a ‘joke.’ The infrastructure, personnel and legal framework to implement that policy is in place. One particularly DOGE like idea is to have the Camp “Inmates” do the conversions of the previously empty commercial spaces. All hail the return of the County Farm.
The first sign of “The End of Democratic Days” will probably be a ‘False Flag’ attack on the Homeland(TM). Then the declaration of a “State of Emergency.”
Stay safe. Stack deep.
Always appreciate you picking up the second shift of links on this topic each day :)
Regarding the Jerusalem Post… There was a great discussion on Breaking Points Friday episode where an Israeli journalist, Noga Tarnopolsky, was given a lot of time to explain the media environment in Israel at the moment. She said that JPost used to be a respected outlet but now it is a righty conference board type of website. Not to be respected much. Then again, Fox News on Saturday gives at least 2 hours of programing to Axios, so I’m sure we’re not ones to brag in the US.
Highly recommend listening to the entire conversation they had on Breaking Points. It gave a very different perspective on Israeli society today. One important thing that I got from listening to it was my interpretation of the polls regarding the actions against Lebanon, Iran, Gaza, etc. From the outside, it looks like a huge majority of Israelis agree with what Netanyahu is doing. But if you read the actual questions you see that they are misleading and worded to support a pre-existing conclusion, and then they get twisted further when presented to English speakers. So while a lot of people in Israel may agree with Netanyahu on some things, it is not the majority I had been despairing over.
The other interesting detail is that this journalist suggested the typical Israeli on the street lives in a very selective information bubble. The consequences of what is happening now are an incredible shock because so many have been isolated from reality for a long time. Which gives a different perspective to what I’m seeing in news articles and online. Perhaps Raspberry Jam can opine if those statements are reasonable or not. Until I hear otherwise, it gives me hope that we can work through this mess because the population of Israelis who support the current war and other atrocities is smaller than I had assumed.
One thing I think should be noted that I haven’t seen mention, albeit it could be nothing or it could be everything, is that Ashura is this week, June 25. At the beginning of the conflict, professor Marandi warned that the US and Israel better hope the conflict doesn’t reach Ashura.
The time when the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad stood up for justice and truth against a tyrant, and was martyred in brutal fashion. Standing up for truth and justice no matter the odds and no matter the consequences is essentially what Ashura is all about.
Given the overlap of themes, and that the Iranian government has already been using the occasion for political purposes, why wouldn’t they, I would not be the least bit surprised if Iran did something big for Ashura. No idea what, but things like this:
Make me think something is coming this week.
On and on. A ditty popped into my head Courtesy Curtis Mayfield and Stephen Bishop:
On and on
I just keep on trying
And I smile
When I feel like dying
On and on, on and on, on and on
I am stunned so many in the world seem to be actively betting on -for or against- this perpetual irresolvable quagmire.
“we” sure are a strange critter.
Trump has some strong allegiances from the most nihilistic and jaded. Ploymarket Futures!
To Arms, Two Arms!
Aliens on earth, or just humans? You Bet!
More reserved than I’d be; if my entire family was assassinated by Israel during a meeting discussing negotiations with America that ostensibly addresses Israel’s concerns about nuclear proliferation, I’d keep shooting until I ran out of missiles at Israel.
I hear that. And Iran would likely only have to use half of their arsenal to totally flatten Israel. But would Israel use their nuclear weapons against Iran?
Would it matter if they did?
I’m more concerned about Israel using their nukes against the US or Europe in retaliation for not defending them enough.
Of course it would matter, many thousands of innocent Iranians would be killed, and radiation clouds know no boundaries. Look at a map. Think about it for a minute.
You really think the Izzies would kill the Golden Goose? That makes no sense.
Religious fanatics do not think like the rest of us. Their “logic” is not that of a sane world.
The Supreme Leader also added to the controversy by effectively saying on Twitter that he was not keen about the pact but agreed because the Supreme National Security Council backed it.,
IMO, this is likely just posturing from a guy who is not yet established and who has two strong factions that are almost diametrically opposed to each other on key issues.
Having said that, it is unlikely that any head of state would say such things if they expected the deal to be implemented in its current form without a lot of hiccups. However, I am personally treating it like noise at the moment.
And speaking of noise, I was eagerly anticipating to see what Europe was going to do to unnecessarily screw itself. It seems like France is taking the lead on screwing this one up, but maybe the UK will manage to surprise on the upside with even greater incompetence soon.
Looks like the two real-estate grifter ghouls are going to Switzerland. The Idiot Emperor insists on these slimeballs, I guess that’s the best a corrupt, incompetent buffoon can do. AJ says Vance will also go in a couple days time.
As many observers have commented and asked: “why would the Iranians even agree to talk to the Zionist agents posing as ‘negotiators’?”
Will the Iranians be in the same room with them?
Macro Alpha
@MacroAlphaHQ
·
1h
🚨 I automatically fade 99% of FinTwit’s geopolitical panic, but an actual hard closure of Hormuz forces me to tip my hat.
21 MILLION barrels of daily oil flow just got zeroed out.
You have to respect a physical catalyst that instantly deletes 20% of global liquid supply.
Every systematic pod that spent the quarter shorting energy vol is about to get carried out in a body bag.
It looks like Iran will NEVER get the money that the US has grabbed. the following article from the Guardian makes clear that instead of freeing the money FIRST, it will only be freed after a total Iranian surrender of defeat over the uranium enrichment. that means never. Once the US grabs money (as in Russia’s $300 billion in Brussels), it will never give it back:
Lockridge Okoth “Trump to Return Iran’s Frozen Money to Protect the Dollar,” Yahoo, June 17, 2026. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-return-iran-frozen-money-195551788.html. Trump pointed out that “We are not putting up money,” since it was Iran’s to begin with, but said that he was holding onto it as a lever to impose UI.S. demands to limit Iran’s freedom of action, saying that he would release the funds “Only if they are doing things right.”
I agree, we’ll believe the US when the money shows up in Iranian accounts. We won’t hold our breath.
And now the Unhinged Emperor changed his mind yet again.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/06/19/trump-says-iran-is-finished-after-cancelled-negotiations—as-israeli-attacks-threaten-deal/
Iran is “finished” and will get no money. This (and many other things) does not inspire confidence in the emperor’s cognitive ability or mental health.
No, Iran is very clear the US must perform first. See the post.
So if this is the US position, the Strait stays closed and the war is back on.
Maybe I misunderstood but I don’t think anyone suggested that it was Iran’s move, only the quoted bit from the pres.
I agree: the Strait stays closed, and a restart of the war looks more probable by the minute.
CENTCOM now saying Iran does not control Strait.
Several mou provisions, including release of Iranián funds, US non-intervention in Iranián politics, and the end of the then-young and more limited sanctions, were part of the agreement for release of the hostages. We complied for not much longer than it took to have the hostages back.
Iran from a policy standpoint might want double oil prices, here’s how!
Twills08
@Twills08
We are beginning to see how Iran will utilize their newfound power in the region, and I suspect that oil bulls will be quite happy with the results. I’ve talked about the geopolitics quite a bit, but other than referencing a general rise in oil price, I haven’t spoken on the economic power that they will yield.
Previously, OPEC largely controlled the price of oil as it managed the spigot. Sure, there are a multitude of other factors, but they played the largest role in my opinion.
The UAE and Qatar no longer belong to that organization, and it will likely become a shell of its former self. Now that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, they will have overall say in the flow of that oil, minimally for the next year or until overland pipelines can be completed.
So, with that in mind, what oil price would Iran like to see? I think this is an exceedingly important question for those of us investing in oil, particularly for the near to long-term.
Iran needs Brent to maintain approximately $124-$125 a barrel to balance its budget. This would be the most basic of targets, and I suspect it’s likely their minimum price. Besides budgetary concerns, there is also the obvious interest in placing economic strain on the United States. President Trump, very stupidly imo, announced to the world that the US is at critical levels of oil reserve capacities.
So, if $124-$125 per barrel is their base case, at what price could Iran place economic strain on the United States, while also refraining from collapsing the global economy? It should be heavily noted that China will not want to see widespread economic collapse. They will have no problem with financial strain upon the US system, however.
That target, ladies and gentlemen, is likely $130-$140 per barrel. A spike to 150 to 160 might teeter the global economy over the edge, and they may spike it for a day or two for demonstration purposes; however sustained levels will likely be at the $130 to $140 range.
Without a doubt, they will be capable of influencing prices in the direction of their choosing. Because of our critical SPR levels, they will maintain this ability for the next year. The Permian Basin along with the Alaskan fields will see great expansion over this period. Eventually, their control will wane, but not anytime soon in my opinion. DD and GLTY. NFA as always. There are obviously innumerous factors at play, and things are changing by the minute. I’m making largely predictive statements, and could very well be wrong; however, if things continue in the current fashion, I suspect I will be quite correct.
Iran needs Brent to maintain approximately $124-$125 a barrel to balance its budget.
Interesting, but how do we know that Iran needs $125/bbl to balance budget? I guess if we include the massive costs of rebuilding?
I don’t know what the North Slope fraction spread looks like but I keep a close eye on west coast diesel. Thought there would be a brief reprieve on price but now I wish I had committed more to storage.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_r50_w.htm
PADD5 looks good through 6/12
PADD5 looks good through 6/12
source:https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_r50_w.htm
Iran needs Brent to maintain approximately $124-$125 a barrel to balance its budget. This would be the most basic of targets, and I suspect it’s likely their minimum price.
Three questions:
(1) Why does Iran need to balance its budget? I would have thought that it would want to run deficits while rebuilding.
(2) When someone makes such suggestions, are they factoring in that Iran is now essentially charging transit fees for all barrels going through the straits? Does it make a big difference?
(3) Even if Iran desperately wanted to reduce the price to, say, $100/barrel, can it really do so?
Sorry if these are dumb questions–I know very little about oil markets
No. levels will not be sustained at $130-$140. Maybe some months. You’ll see demand destruction particularly with the dollar so strong v. many currencies.
0928 PDT
Cold war brewing in Syria as Druze, Kurds, and Alawites resist al-Sharaa’s rule
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-899896
As Trump has so consolidated ‘power’ in his own person, in order to ‘decapitate’ US leadership , all Iran has to do is to paralyze Trump’s decision making ability, which, given current images, indicate that he is operating in a mental condition of ‘not enough band width’ to process changing events. Poor baby doesn’t know what to do. John Mearsheimers logical viewpoint is open for debate, if Trump acts illogical. Shaiel Ben-Ephaim arguments open the door to speculate what will be the outcome in Israel, if Israel suffers a ‘strategic’ defeat in Lebanon. If Robert Pape is correct in theorizing that bombing is not a path way to victory, the corallary implies that in a conflict vicrory requires the defeat of the opponents army. A military force whose leadership is in disarray is a lost force. Note: Consider USSR deep battle theory. The US and Israel have been operating on the image of invinicibility. Note: Consider, in the movie “Predator”, ‘Dutch’ states: “If it bleeds, we can kill it.”
I watched the Nima video this morning and guys all held the view that Benji has unique abilities to manipulate US gov folks and that any incoming replacement for Benji will not be as effective.
I think that’s true, but not that Benji was better than the replacement. I think things have changed and even Benji will not fare well from now on because of the work some folks did on digging up which congress critters get money and how much from AIPAC and then effectively presenting the info. Couple that with the horrendous behavior of the Zionists and even the dimmest bulb begins to connect the dots about why the US seemingly ignores the Kill-em-all solution the Israelis rely on.
I think all the above can partly explain the sudden boldness of Trump.
There is something to that.
The thing that boggles me is how people think Netanyahu’s special power is he understands US culture better than others do, speak English with American idioms, etc, BUT the guy who’s the most likely replacement, Benett, is basically an actual American (son of American Jews who settled “back” in Israel) with flawless US accent. Surely, there are other, younger pols in Israel who “understand” US at least as well as Netanyahu does.
I loved Trump’s recent threat that “Iran won’t get anything and we’ll just play out the 60 days.” Que? 60 more days of Hormuz closure? And then? Does he think there’s a ref somewhere who’ll stop play and declare a draw? In what world?
The word “Unacceptable” always takes me back to Reese Witherspoon as Leslie Jones’ Inner White Girl (~3:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhSSLZpl-Vg
1126 PDT
Iran Resumes Kharg Island Oil Loadings After US Blockade Lifted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-20/iran-resumes-kharg-island-oil-loadings-after-us-blockade-lifted
US denies Iran’s claim to have closed Strait of Hormuz over Israeli attacks in Lebanon
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c9wq95g0lx2t
Israel’s Lebanon campaign is becoming one of the greatest strategic blunders in its history. It is rebuilding Hezbollah’s prestige, wrecking ties with Washington, and spending elite officers on a line with no purpose. Here is how:
It was a huge blunder, but it is an outcome of the true “greatest blunders”, which is that in conflict there is what Clausewitz termed a “culmination point”, after which further belligerence weakens even the attacker more than strengthening them.
Michael Collins (IRA) understood this brilliantly, as did Bismarck, Eisenhower, and Bush I. Israel doesn’t seem to get it, though, and will likely end up in the annals of history as a country that went too far, likely brainwashed by its own propaganda that it never needs to compromise. It is already in an ever worsening position and doesn’t seem to have any plan other than to double up on what even an orangutan can see is a disastrous set of policies.
The Strait is closed. I think Iran is very skillfully addressing world opinion of who is at fault here. They let Isr make the first moves knowing Isr cannot help itself. It’s becoming a PR debacle for the West. How long will Isr’s benefactors in the West continue this losing situation in the face of growing economic disaster.
(The price of motor oil in the US is up over 20% from a month ago. Isr seems not to care how bad the West and world is being hurt. T talking up the market can only last for so long.)
Jimmy Dore.
Israel Just BLEW UP Trump’s Peace Agreement! Iran Closes Strait Again!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LluJF9lFbDU
adding: I’m not sure why Michael Hudson’s book title “Killing the Host” comes to mind just now. My connection of the title’s idea to the ME certainly has nothing to do with the contents of Hudson’s book. It’s just that the title seems somehow apt at this moment.
UK imports of Israeli military goods jumped more than 10,000% during Gaza war
They’re adept at creating tools of repression
Trump often seems more showman than President. So we may well ask if the “peace deal” is really just a show. A show that ultimately allows Trump to ‘turn the tables’ such that he can claim that Iran is the belligerent. In this way, Trump might get a bi-partisan declaration of war from Congress and with that stamp-of-approval he would be able to:
1) continue to appease Israel;
2) threaten Iran with severe consequences for ‘bad behavior’ (including nuclear?);
3) win the midterms.
Is this crazy? Well, despite the MOU, I don’t see any real acceptance of defeat. Instead, the Trump Administration and Israeli hardliners seem to be courting Iranian ‘bad behavior’/attack.
= =
Those who are wedded to the conventional view of Trump (well-meaning and anything but ideological!!) might cry: but Trump himself said that he doesn’t want to be another Herbert Hoover!!!
If this were heartfelt, then he should have already reigned-in Israel. But he hasn’t. To any realist, that signals pretense.
And such pretense indicates subterfuge.
Trump is failing physically, those pics from the G7 make it clear.
His mental state is also deteriorating rapidly as his public remarks over the last few Months show.
This is…not good.
Maybe We (The World) will get lucky…
Maybe We (The World) will get lucky…
You think Melania will do a better job?
usually suppressed uncouth, hillperson part of me immediately thinks:” well, if she needs a job….”
i mean, theres hoein to do around here….
(amfortas slinks back into his hollow log)
As a matter of fact I do think Melamine could do a better job than her hubby.
So could my neighbors dog, which was run over and killed two weeks ago.
Now I’m seriously wondering if you really meant a hunk of plastic could do a better job than Trump. (if you did, you are probably right.) ;)
We know very little about Melania (by her design, I believe). But she married Trump, so I wouldn’t hold out high hopes for her judgement.
I immediately thought of the Techbros holding hands around the campfire in the Bohemian Grove singing “We Are the World.”
mario ad larry J:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJZCVDyfH90
just now. bibi orders lebanon ops to stop.
usual caveats apply.
the Archdruid weighs in:
https://x.com/JMGreerWriter/status/2068345124438847987
There is something crazy about an adult magician who casts spells on his spare time having a saner take than people actually getting paid to analyze this stuff mathematically.
One more thing to tell the psychiatrist, I guess….
So, I’ve seen reports that Isr and Hez have a ceasefire, but the Isr troops stay in place. If so how will Iran react and how precise will they be. They hold all the cards and T now knows it. Will he step on Bibi further or not? The cliff is coming either way. Iran can close the straight at will and there is not a damn thing T can do about it.
Schadenfreude for T and Bibi. Let the walls close in.
1811 PDT
Trump vows Iran will not charge Strait of Hormuz tolls, but says US might
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-vows-iran-not-charge-215439350.html
Iran won’t move forward on nuclear talks unless Israel abides by MoU
1855 PDT
Starmer expected to resign on Monday
https://observer.co.uk/news/politics/article/starmer-expected-to-resign-on-monday-and-set-out-orderly-exit
Three Indian-flagged oil tankers clear Strait of Hormuz, minister says
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/three-indian-flagged-oil-tankers-clear-strait-hormuz-minister-says-2026-06-20/
Discussion on what the new world order will look like after the Iran war:
Nima with Pravin Sawhney: Iran Just Played Its FINAL CARD – Israel’s Northern Border Is Finished
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zemANGtMdkc&pp=ygVdTmltYSBQcmF2aW4gU2F3aG5leTogSXJhbiBKdXN0IFBsYXllZCBJdHMgRklOQUwgQ0FSRCDigJMgSXNyYWVsJ3MgTm9ydGhlcm4gQm9yZGVyIElzIEZpbmlzaGVk0gcJCUACo7VqN5tD&ra=m
The way I see the predominant sentiment and cabinet calculations in Israel, they will not stop mayhem in Lebanon without pretty serious sanctions from USA, e.g. stop of all military supplies and another serious sanction that could follow if Israel keeps being the murderous spoiler. For now, we hear “suasion” which will not work. Replacong Huckabee with someone from Quincy Institute (as a temporary ambassador) should be step 1, like yesterday.
Indeed, but now trump(sic) is in a trap, of his own making. His (Cohen) mantra of attack, deny and proclaim victory must now fade to the lattermost. Alas for us, the victory will only be in weathering the storm.