[Today’s Iran war post yet again went live before done. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
In Senate testimony on Tuesday, State Department Secretary Marco Rubio set forth US demands to Iran. Despite claims that the two sides were making progress. the Rubio remarks show that the US is not registering the repeated “What about ‘no’ don’t you understand?” that Iran has made in reply. Rubio also replayed tired tropes, such as Iran needs to be forced to come to the table (as if they have not been? And by what means?). From what I could tell, most of the Senators had developed their questions before the meeting. I did not seem much evidence of them incorporating Iran’s new demands, of a ceasefire on all fronts, with that now to include Gaza and the West Bank, was considering closing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Nandab happened, and would not “talk” further.
But of course Trump lied shamelessly yet again said “talks” were still underway:1
Trump needs an editor in additions to other minders. “Continuously” is not possible unless the US and Iran are running 24/7 shifts.
Iran begged to differ with the Trump characterization:
An informed source told Fars that Iran–US message exchanges have stopped for several days, despite Trump saying talks are moving quickly.
The source says Iran’s last message to Washington was about Lebanon.
— Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) June 2, 2026
IRAN SAYS U.S. MESSAGE EXCHANGE HALTED
An Iranian source says there is currently no message exchange with the U.S., contradicting claims of ongoing progress. The source reports talks on an initial understanding have stalled for several days. It also noted Iran’s last…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 2, 2026
Everything that has happened since Iran threw down its new markers confirms the wisdom of its hardline stance. Even though Trump quickly called Netanyahu and we are told by the White-House-stenographer-in-chief Barak Ravid, gave him the mother-of-all-chewings-out, all Netanyahu has done is hold back from bombing Beirut. Operations continue in Southern Lebanon and one assumes Gaza and the West Bank. As we will soon show, Rubio’s testimony plus a new US attack show that the Administration is not budging even though its current position is not tenable. Perhaps Trump can keep saying sweet nothings to Mr. Market and keep energy prices tamped down for weeks longer. But that simple assures that the price break will be more dramatic when inventories finally reach rock bottom. Sadly, given the inability to remove Trump from power any time soon, the odds favor that he will try to keep up the pretense that he can turn the tide even as it rises up to his ears and sinks big sections of the US and global economy.
And these bad outcomes are not just due to Trump having white matter disease but also of having been a lousy negotiator even in his prime. From Eugene Linden in comments:
I can vouch for Mikew0’s analysis that Trump goes into negotiations with no strategy whatsoever. For 15 years I was chief investment strategist for a family of distress investment hedge funds. A few years before I arrived, the main fund bought a good deal of severely discounted debt in Trump’s Jersey casino. The head of the fund and a bunch of other heavyweight distress investors went to a meeting at Trump tower to discuss the future. The president of the Trump organization came in to the room and said something like, “If you don’t accept our terms, we’re going to declare bankruptcy!” The bankruptcy pros looked at each other and then said, “Great, then we own the company.” The president looked no-plussed and left the room. When he came back (clearly after conferring again with Trump) he said, “If you don’t accept our terms, we’re going to keep paying the coupon!” Again, the pros nearly laughed, and said, “Great, then our debt is money good — and by the way, we don’t accept your terms.”
Yes, sports fans, Trump has long been so arrogant that he negotiated over a potential bankruptcy without apparently talking to a bankruptcy lawyer….and persisted even after a “put foot in mouth and chew” incident in an initial round.
First to the sightings of toads hopping from Rubio’s mouth. A new Daniel Davis discussion with Douglas Macgregor helpfully hoisted the core part from Rubio’s opening statement. Keep in mind that Rubio is on deck for a second day in the hot seat on Wednesday:
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Secretary Rubio [from recording in the Senate]: If Iran wants to be able to move its oil again through the Strait, they will have to reopen the straits. If they refuse to do so, then we have other options available to us, but we would prefer to negotiate the opening of this.
Senator Murphy: What do you need from them in order to get the straight reopened? We need the Strait reopened tomorrow.
Rubio: Well, what needs to happen is very simple. We’re not charging a toll. We will help remove the mines that they put in there and they will not fire on ships.
Murphy: But the president says they also need to make commitments on their nuclear program. That’s what I’m asking.
Rubio: That’s the predicate that opens the door to phase two. Phase two is they have to commit to very specific negotiations on disposition of the highly-enriched uranium that still is buried deep in a mountain somewhere. They have to agree on negotiating severe and long-term limitations and or cancellation of enrichment activity in their ..
Murphy: in the second phase of negotiations.
Rubio: Obviously, these are highly technical matters. So, I don’t think you could work those out in 5 days. You that would require a team of experts to meet over a 30 60 90 day period and work out the details. But they have to commit to their willingness to do that. For example, they have to commit to say we will dispose of the enriched uranium. And the question now is what are the mechanisms by which we do so
Murphy: On order to get to that second phase, are you willing to release sanctions or release frozen money that the United States is withholding from Iran?
Rubio: Right now everything that’s been discussed with them is that any sanctions relief, now remember sanctions, ’cause there’s international sanctions, there’s congressional sanctions, there’s executive sanctions. So some we can release and some we cannot.
But any sanctions relief is condition-based which means it has to be in return for the reason why those sanctions were put in place in the first place which is their nuclear program. So yeah look Iran is being sanctioned because they enrich uranium. Iran is being sanctioned because they’ve highlyenriched uranium. Iran is being sanctioned because of their nuclear activities.
Murphy: If they agree to give up those things, there will be sanctions relief associated with their commitment and compliance with those agreements relief just in exchange for reopening the Strait
Rubio: No, that that’s not been discussed. That’s not been offered.
If you have followed what Iran has been saying about its requirements for ending the conflict, the Trump Team continuing to broadcast its fantasies is maddening. Iran has very clearly said it does not trust the US at all and the US must take concrete action first, with Iran pushing hard for that to be the release of some of its frozen assets (the most commonly reported figure is $12 billion). That is the price of entry. No tickie, no laundry.
So Iran is correct to pack its tent and wait until the US gets over its sense of imperial entitlement.
Now it is possible that Iran might entertain a concrete US measure in place of the release of blocked funds, but there is no indication that such an idea has been broached.
Let us continue with the Rubio lunacy for the sake of completeness. On enrichment, Iran has continued to insist on sequencing, that it will not talk about its uranium program at all until Phase 1 negotiations are completed, which means what to do about the Strait of Hormuz, how to end the conflict on all front, and per Iran, the exit (or considerable downsizing) of US military from the region.
If you review what Rubio said above, the US still thinks it can get Iran to make high-level Phase 2 commitments before starting Phase 2. Huh? This is “Sentence first, verdict afterwards.”
And in a further show of cheekiness, Rubio is going well beyond the state of play before Iran pulled the plug, like insisting that get rid of its highly-enriched uranium. Contrast the remarks above with:
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US talks: enriched uranium is not currently on the table
Removing enriched uranium from Iran is not being discussed in the ongoing negotiations, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Sputnik. pic.twitter.com/HbTbxHgLZz
— Sputnik India (@Sputnik_India) May 30, 2026
🚨 BREAKING
🇮🇷 IRAN SAYS ANY “TRANSFER” OR “DISPOSAL” OF ITS ENRICHED URANIUM IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT U.S. DRAFT AGREEMENT
THE COMMENT HIGHLIGHTS THAT THE NUCLEAR ISSUE REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST OBSTACLES IN THE ONGOING TALKS
THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR THE MARKETS pic.twitter.com/tawdo8AIj6
— ardizor 🧙♂️ (@ardizor) June 1, 2026
Iran had seemed willing to be a bit flexible and have it diluted well below weapons-grade level. But it has hardened its position and is not willing to have it leave Iran, as the US still insists.
On top of that, the US has retraded its position, since Rubio’s statements to Congress have official weight. That is yet more proof to Iran that the US is a hopeless bad faith actor.
And as for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has been consistent that it is not giving up its control, although Iran has not done itself favors by saying the Strait has been or will be “open”. What Iran means by “open” is in a different universe from what the US is demanding, which is a return to status quo ante. Iran has been remiss in not clarifying what it means. Admittedly, it been passing legislation, which does not seem to be a speedy process, and some of its procedures will likely depend on what if anything Oman is willing to do. As we will soon discuss, the US has been threatening Oman bigly.
Colonel Macgregor, in the same video segment, sums up the sorry state of affairs:
Host: Doug, haven’t we been here already? How many times can Iran say, “No, we’re not going to do that. No, we’re not going to do that.” And yet they keep circling back like this and he just capitlaized everything that we’re looking at the impossible.
Macgregor: :Well, he’s done an excellent job of once again restating Mr. Netanyahu’s policy positions because that’s essentially what we’ve adopted and that’s what we’re saying. Uh, none of this is original and there is no negotiation.
All we’ve ever done is restate over and over and over again what Mr. Netanyahu says he must have. And whenever there’s a a possibility that there could be some modification that would lead to any kind of breakthrough, Mr. Netanyahu gets on the phone and makes it clear to Donald Trump that that’s unacceptable. And Donald Trump says, “Yes, sir. Roger. Got it.” And goes back to work again to realize Israel’s goals.
There was a good deal of derisive commentary on Twitter about Rubio’s testimony, particularly his bizarre claim that the war was over. A samplings:
If the war on Iran was over, as Rubio testified to under oath today, WHY is the U.S. dropping bombs on Qeshm Island, forcing retaliatory strikes from Iran on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain?
There's no exit strategy.
All they do is LIE.pic.twitter.com/6UND9wg6GA— BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️ (@mmpadellan) June 3, 2026
Marco Rubio says it’s unclear how or when the Strait of Hormuz will open.
— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) June 2, 2026
A fresh statement from Iran, posted in the Aljazeera live feed, underscores that Iran will not bend to US pressure:
Iran will not allow US to overreach in negotiations, senior official warns
Iran will not allow the US to overreach in negotiations or the ceasefire process, a senior Iranian official says.
“The response to every shot and aggression will be a barrage of missiles and drones,” Mohsen Rezaee, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council and former IRGC commander, said in a post on X. “History will not turn back, and the aggressor will be swiftly punished.”
“Neither in negotiations nor in the ceasefire process will we allow America to overreach,” Rezaee added.
That brings us to the kinetic front, which heated up this week and may get hotter. From Bloomberg in US, Iran Exchange Military Strikes to Put Fresh Strains on Ceasefire:
The US and Iran clashed again overnight, with Kuwait and Bahrain caught in the crossfire of one the most serious flare-ups since a ceasefire went into effect in early April…
Shortly after “disabling” an empty oil tanker heading to Iran, the US military said it came under missile and drone attack.
Iran targeted the US’s main naval base in the region, located in Bahrain, and the Ali Al-Salem airbase in Kuwait. At least one person at Kuwait’s civilian airport was killed in a separate strike.
The US said Iran fired several ballistic missiles at its allies Bahrain and Kuwait, with all “failing to hit their intended target,” as well as drones at commercial ships. American forces struck a communications tower on the Iranian island of Qeshm near the strait as part of the skirmishes.
Kuwait said its airport was significantly damaged and it suspended flights for a few hours. A number of people were injured in addition to the person who was killed, it said.
It is painful to read Bloomberg repeating patently bogus US spin. One howler was “The US military said its strikes on Iran were all in self-defense.” This is narrowly accurate although substantively misleading. Pray tell how can shelling an empty and unarmed oil tanker ever be an act of self defense?
And consider this market-stoking falsehood:
The sides have agreed on a rough framework that should extend their truce by two months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though negotiations over the final details are dragging on.
Iran has NOT agreed to anything. Iran’s clear and consistent position has been that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Larry Johnson weighted in on the latest exchange of strikes in Iran and the US Trade More Blows in the Persian Gulf:
The tensions between the US and Iran remain very taut after both sides exchanged of fire late on June 2 (early morning June 3 in the Persian Gulf). It apparently started when a US helicopter tried to stop an Iranian tanker headed for the port of Bandar Abbas. The US helo launched a hellfire missile that reportedly hit the engine room and disabled the tanker. In addition, the US also hit an Iranian communications tower on Qeshm Island.
Iran wasted no time responding… the IRGC released the following statement:
Late last night, the invading US military targeted an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz with a hellfire missile, damaging the engine room.
In response to this aggression and violation of the regulations of the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC targeted an enemy Zionist-American ship, the ‘Panaya’, with missiles.
In a renewed aggression, the American enemy also targeted an IRGC communications on Qeshm Island.
In response to this aggression, its airbase and its helicopter base stationed in one of the countries in the region (Kuwait), as well as the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, were subjected to an attack by missiles and drones of the IRGC Aerospace Force.
We warned previously that in the event of aggression, the response would be different and harsher, and we have acted accordingly. These responses should serve as a lesson.
We reaffirm that undermining the security of the Strait of Hormuz will cost the invading U.S. military a heavy price.’
While CENTCOM claimed that US forces shot down all Iranian missiles, video footage from Kuwait tells a different story, with at least three visible missile impacts on the ground. There is no news of casualties.
This WION segment contains some of the sort of images that Johnson mentioned:
Iran–US ceasefire collapses into direct kinetic exchange. US struck Qeshm Island and Hellfired an oil tanker’s engine room; Iran retaliated with ≥10 ballistic missiles and Shahed drones on US Ali Al-Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, plus the 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain (AMK Mapping overnight summary, Drop Site on the Kuwait strikes). Kuwait International Airport’s Terminal 1 was “heavily damaged,” flights suspended (Kuwait MoD via BRICS, damage confirmation). Bahrain claims it downed 3 missiles (AMK)…..
Iran’s new doctrine: retaliate “at least 1.5x as hard,” immediately. Tit-for-tat is over per an Iranian source (Trita Parsi); the escalation ladder ran Qeshm → Kuwait → Qeshm → Kuwait within hours (Nostra sequence).
Simplicius in US Wallows in “Stalemate” Purgatory of Its Own Making keys off a New York Times article, Trump Hits the Stalemate Phase of His International Interventions, and It Stings. Simplicius provided a tidbit I had missed:
Several days ago Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait after the US struck Iranian radar positions on Qeshm island. Immediately after the strikes came news that a British and US soldier died mysteriously during training “accidents”.
Now to the US putting the thumbscrews on Oman, as recounted by the Wall Street Journal in U.S. Presses Neutral Oman to Pick a Side and Cut Ties With Iran:
At the start of the U.S.-Iran war, officials in Oman raced to establish a back channel with Tehran…
Three months later, that neutral stance is beginning to backfire. Washington increasingly interprets Oman’s approach toward Tehran as hostile to America and, according to U.S. and Arab officials, has pressed Oman to pick a side and cut diplomatic ties with Iran.
In recent days, the Trump administration has threatened to sanction and even bomb Oman, after a new intelligence assessment concluded that Muscat was planning to join Iran in tolling vessels in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, according to another U.S. official. Oman has repeatedly denied that it plans to do so…
Oman, which has acted as a mediator in previous rounds of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, didn’t condemn Iran by name after attacks on traffic through the strait and missile and drone strikes across the region. A person familiar with the matter said not doing so was in line with Omani diplomatic tradition.
When war broke out, Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, told Omani media that the conflict was weakening the region and suggested Gulf Arab states reconsider their security ties with the U.S….
Omani territory was used to provide some logistical supplies to the U.S. military at the start of the war, say Arab and U.S. officials. But the U.S. official said the military assistance was small…
Omani officials have been shocked by the sudden U.S. hostility and are working to figure out how to respond to it, Arab officials said….
Since the war started, Oman has assisted ships, including from the U.S., by providing navigational guidance, search-and-rescue services and medical assistance to ship crews, said a person familiar with the matter.
Harrasi said the country remained committed to the free flow of commerce and energy through the strait. “Any threat to freedom of navigation in these waters would harm the interests of the entire international community, including the United States,” he said…
U.S. officials said the genesis of the Trump administration’s distrust of Muscat came a day before the first U.S.-Israeli airstrikes when Oman’s foreign minister appeared on U.S. television to claim an agreement on nuclear issues to avoid a conflict was “within our reach, if we just allow diplomacy the space it needs to get there.”
No agreement was that close, the officials said, noting Iran hadn’t made a serious offer to limit its nuclear work.
Since then, the Trump administration has tried to sideline Oman in any diplomatic process, though there is no genuine plan to attack the country for its support of Iran, the U.S. officials said, despite Trump’s remark at last week’s cabinet meeting…
Muscat has incensed the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia by systematically refusing to sign on to joint statements from the U.S. and regional countries condemning Iran’s attacks, Arab officials say. When Iranian drones hit Oman’s own ports, Oman acknowledged the event but didn’t call out Tehran as responsible…
Today, Oman isn’t directly criticizing Iran’s toll demand because Muscat sees it as just another negotiating tool, especially to secure the release of billions of dollars in funds frozen by U.S. and international sanctions, one of the officials said.
Keep in mind that others depicted as knowledgeable about the pre-war negotiations have said that Iran was making very significant concessions. The restrictions it agreed to were even tighter than those in the JCOPA, allowing Trump to claim a win. But the insiders say Kushner and Witkoff were either so far out of their depth as to not understand what Iran was prepared to give, or too committed to war with Iran to present it to Trump honestly.
And some economic front tidbits, first a major wake up call from Bloomberg in Dollar General Says Pinched Consumers Are Cutting Back on Food Keep in mind that the impact of diesel price increases and fertilizer shortages have barely begun to register:
Some Dollar General Corp. shoppers are cutting back on food and other household expenses due to rising gas prices, Chief Executive Officer Todd Vasos said on the company’s earnings call.
“Our core customer continues to be financially constrained,” Vasos told analysts on Tuesday. “This pressure has been more pronounced on customers in rural communities, as they work to minimize trip distance and make trade-offs in their search for everyday affordability and value.”
Food companies have previously said that consumers are seeking bargains or buying products on sale, but they largely stopped short of saying shoppers were purchasing less food.
Changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, have been another headwind for Dollar General’s core customer base, Vasos said. Republicans last year expanded work requirements for people receiving SNAP benefits, which has pushed people out of the program.
The retailer responded by adding more $1 private-label items during the quarter and expanding its slate of $1 frozen items. That helped bring more shoppers into stores.
Next, a meaty tweet that makes a key point: “You are no longer watching an oil market. You are watching a market that trades the odds of a peace deal and prints the answer on an oil ticker.”
Oil spiked as much as eight percent, then started giving it back within hours.
Not one barrel of supply changed in between.
What moved the price was two sentences, and that is the entire story.
The first sentence came from Tehran: Iran was suspending talks with Washington and… pic.twitter.com/4ysonRKXp2
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) June 2, 2026
And apropos the coming oil supply/price cliff, a point that seems still not to have sunk in:
This is the most robust chart in all of economics, and it shows that GDP has a near-perfect correlation to oil consumption. If a shortage of oil goes on for too long, then the economy will be forced into retreat to match the amount of oil that's available. It's that simple.
Full… pic.twitter.com/uHkGHdysQI
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) June 2, 2026
And confirming that we are not crazy in seeing bizarre and widespread denialism, particularly among those who hold themselves out as professionals:
Every physical trader I spoke to in the last month said something along the lines of, “Prices will stop us from hitting tank bottom.”
Fast forwarding to today, nope. Market did not price in any demand destruction in the West. Instead, we are just going full on into shortage…
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) May 29, 2026
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
____
1 The tweet time is 1:00 PM EDT on June 2.
Just to repeat a possibility I’ve asked about elsewhere – could the impasse be a deliberately arrived at impasse intended to allow Israel to take and destroy Lebanon. Could negotiations with Iran be the distraction, Lebanon the main target of the operation. As we have observed, Israel is now quite deep into Lebanon having led the Iranians to a ceasefire, which they honored, and which allowed Israel to safely move.
If your theory is correct, then it seems that the Iranians have twigged and are now demanding that the Israelis halt or no negotiations. They may have waited so long to give themselves a chance to rebuild their defenses and get in more weaponry from their allies. And now the Iranians have the Israelis in their gun sights once again threatening their northern settlements.
Es s Ce Tera: Hmmm. I’m skeptical. I tend to doubt that provoking a war with a big country like Iran, which then led to the easy foreseen shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the tightening up of the Bab al-Mandeb by the Houthi/Yemenis, is all a cover for an attack on Lebanon that, so far, hasn’t gotten farther than 15 km into Lebanon.
I think that the Israelis, as ever, are taking advantage of circumstances, just as they used the 7 October “Tet Offensive” by Hamas to claim a new holocaust, mass rape, babies in ovens — so as to confiscate property and kill Palestinians in the West Bank. Never let a crisis go to waste.
Bomb Beirut and Gaza!
IDF has nothing better to do with a 100 strike sorties a day! US is footing the bill, air refueling when needed and delivering needs by C-17.
IDF been at war with Hizbolah (terrorists so attacking their women and kids is no violation of ceasefire) since 1982.
Let’s hear it for those brave Israeli pilots, dropping (American-made) bombs on defenseless Lebanese civilians.
Zionazis are the real terrorists so every izzy is a legitimate target. As are all those who support them, wherever they may live and regardless of their preferred magician in the sky fairy tale.
No. Simple version: the Israelis have no strategic objectives in Lebanon qua Lebanon. In any event, if you know the terrain, military operations there would be a nightmare, and there would be no chance of holding the country. There has always been a school in Zionism that believes that parts of Southern Lebanon, up to the Litani at least, should by rights be part of Israel, but I am not aware that that has any impact on the present war.
The issue is Hezbollah and its links with Iran, and its deployment in the South of the country, within range of settlements in northern Israel and apparently with the capability to strike Tel Aviv as well. If Alastair Crooke is right about the new Israeli doctrine of total security, then we’re seeing its application here: the destruction of Hezbollah, but also and more importantly, the creation of a wasteland extending from the Litani down to the border in which nothing lives and where Hezbollah cannot operate. This is combined with attempts to kill Hezbollah commanders by bombing targets in Dahieh, the strongly Shia region of South Beirut. If Crooke is right, then this will be a never-ending war, not based on territorial conquest (which the Israelis have shown they cannot do) but just hitting Hezbollah again and again and again, so that it can never reconstitute.
From the Iranian point of view, Hezbollah (yes, books have been written about the complexities of the Iran/Hezbollah relationship) is useful as source of pressure on Israel and as a way of attacking Israel from close range in the current war, but its main purpose has always been to give Iran the maximum possible influence in Lebanon, for which Hezbollah needs to survive as a fighting force. The “ceasefire” is therefore essentially between Iran/Hezbollah and Israel, and from the Iranian point of view is about preserving Hezbollah’s capability and maximising Iranian influence in Lebanon. The problem with the current fighting is that, whilst Hezbollah is getting the better of it, its resources are not infinite, and it’s losing key people both on the ground and through airstrikes. And frankly, from the Iranian perspective Lebanon is a sideshow now, given the damage that Iran has shown it can inflict directly on Israel.
With the IDF and Hezbollah, it kinda sounds like Vietnam all over again. One side more wealthy, better armed, superior in technology going up against professionals combat veteans. It took years to play out but eventually the US had to call it quits as they could never defeat North Vietnam who were supported by China and Russia. I don’t think that the IDF can defeat Hezbollah in the long term as it is not just a military force but a resistance movement. Attrition is not a option here. At the heart of this conflict is the idea of Greater Israel and the settlers already have maps showing where they intend to build their settlements in southern Lebanon. The FPV drones of Hezbollah have now made that a pipe dream and they will continue to eat away at the IDF until there has to be once more a pull back from Lebanon. It happened before and it will happen again.
Exactly, the indigenous population has realized over the decades that they either bow down and allow Israel/US to invade and slaughter them, or they fight back til the death. If they are to be slaughtered anyway, they have nothing to lose. On that level it is dead simple.
As Andrei Martyanov, Scott Ritter and others have pointed out: when a foreign military force invades your home territory, and your family’s lives are in direct danger, backs against the wall, people will fight back with a ferocity that the invaders cannot match. They will fight to the death. We see videos from Iran showing young women with AK-47s chanting support for the resistance, holding Iranian and Hezbollah flags. Hezbollah in Lebanon are in the same situation: they are fighting for their existence.
Us folks in Minneapolis can verify this. Luckily we didn’t have to shoot… this time.
You gave us a wonderful example, but at a heavy price. I hope the city builds a monument to those martyrs and their comrades who defeated ICE on behalf of the whole nation.
And many actors in the region (not just Iran, also Turkey, heck even Syria to keep heat off them) have it as their advantage to ensure an Israeli defeat – preferably an embarrassing one. And that includes Russia, which, via its support for Iran (to prevent NATO at its southern border – Existential! – has an interest in weakening Israel.
Between overstretch and the changing nature of war that does not favor US military tech, the situation in Lebanon is worse for Israel versus Hezbollah. The only advantage to Israel is their decapitation, which killed the older leadership, replaced by younger (and likely more dynamic) leadership. So maybe not an advantage.
Israel’s bombings in Lebanon must be a powerful recruiting tool for Hezbollah. Kill 5 “terrists” and 10 more spring up in their wake.
…the creation of a wasteland extending from the Litani down to the border in which nothing lives and where Hezbollah cannot operate.
So essentially the same thing that Russia will likely have to do in the Ukraine.
It occurs to me that if Israel wants to create a buffer zone for its own security, it is welcome to do so within its own territory.
Problem there is they have no territory. Israel is a fiction invented by UK/US to control West Asia. A nation has defined borders and izzys refuse to accept even the facade of UNGA 181.
That does not make any sense at all. Iran needs influence in Lebanon to keep Hezbollah fighting Israel, and it’s only way to influence Lebanon is Hezbollah?
In the real world, of course, Hezbollah fights Israel because Israel is occupying Lebanon and a constant threat to Lebanon. Should the whole Lebanon join the fight, and should some other big country back Lebanon’s fight, nobody would need Iran to support Hezbollah in it’s fight against the occupation and aggression.
Hezbollah is using Iran more than Iran is using Hezbollah. Hezbollah has it’s agenda, Iran is just providing the weapons because they share a common security threat. Israel’s unmitigated and unrestrained genocidal aggression is the uniting factor here. Why would Iran otherwise care one iota what happens in a tiny tribal, colonial Arab community pretending to be a state?
“No. Simple version: the Israelis have no strategic objectives in Lebanon qua Lebanon.”
A fatal defect in this reasoning: do Israelis in charge think like Aurelien? In my observations, they relish killing and for all rationalizations, the opportunity to kill and create “parking lot” (a favorite phrase) cannot be missed.
The Israelis have proven that they can enter southern Lebanon at any time. What remains to be proven is whether they can STAY in southern Lebanon.
Until they demonstrate otherwise I don’t believe they can.
Done a smidge ahead of schedule! Please refresh this page if you arrived before the time of this comment.
Perhaps relevant to the above is this interesting article on why Europe has so thoroughly embraced Zionism
https://scheerpost.com/2026/06/03/why-europe-embraced-authoritarianism-for-israel/
In other words for centrists globally and not just in this country is also “all about the PR” and they observe and admire the success of Israeli hasbara and say to the waiter “I’ll have what he’s having.” Orwell called this doublethink which became “doublespeak” because his theme was hypocrisy and the abuse of language. The R2P warriors don’t even have to be very good at their jobs as long as they can “manufacture consent” for continued depredations. Virtue signalling becomes virtue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublespeak
Many thanks to Yves Smith for this daily update of Operation Peevish Empire Craves Oil (Opeco!).
I have been following each daily essay here on how to interpret events. I also read Il Fatto Quotidiano each day, which views events in the Persian Gulf with a similar skepticism.
Question: Are mines the new “weapons of mass destruction”? Marco Rubio sez: “Rubio: Well, what needs to happen is very simple. We’re not charging a toll. We will help remove the mines that they put in there and they will not fire on ships.”
—Are the mines just a pretext to claim that a fleet of U.S. minesweepers is on the way? To violate territorial waters of Iran? (I seem to recall Trump trying to assign the minesweeping to the Euro poodles — U.K. and France.)
—Fatto Quotidiano in its daily coverage has never mentioned mines. Are these English-speaking mines?
—Note to Marco Rubio. The Crazy Cuban shtick was already tried by Desi Arnaz, who eventually got cut from one or other of the Lucy series. Just noting some career precariousness.
Question: Oman.
—From the daily essays here, I have clicked through to a video on the history of the Persian Gulf as well as various background documents and articles about Oman.
—Noting, according to the English Wiki entry: “Oman is the oldest independent state in the Arab world, and has been continuously ruled by the Al Bu Said dynasty since 1744.”
—I also note Oman’s long coastline, an advantage. I note its small population, 5.5 million, a disadvantage in the current circumstances. It is also a place where a distinct form of Islam dominates. So the Trump bunch is engaged in bullying, which is not likely to succeed. In the short run, they will punch at Oman. In the long run, Oman is Oman.
—Obviously, I am interpreting the blather out of Washington as just the usual Big Boy and Big Girl squawking, all psychobabble and fury signifying nothing. Does Oman truly have much to fear?
Lucy was the crazy one. Desi was the cheating on Lucy one.
Rubio pretty much begs the UN to pull his chestnuts out of the fire. Jimmy Dore show guest hosted by Garland Nixon:
Marco Rubio BEGS The United Nations To Open The Strait Of Hormuz! w/ Dr. Jack Rasmus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JTN3zglFhE
Jeremy Scahill and Ryan Grim of Drop Site News were on Monday’s Chapo Trap House podcast.
Grim summarized the US/Israel/Iran situation: the US will continue the war with Iran so that Israel can continue its conquest and ethnic cleansing of Lebanon. Macgregor’s remark that Yves quoted above seems consonant with that.
Grim, who is really expert on US politics, has many detailed updates on that topic including how the pro-Israel lobby is adapting and how Democrats are updating their rhetoric. Daniel Davis was mentioned in that he didn’t get the appointment from Trump because Israel didn’t like him. (I wonder how many of the JNap crowd that applies to.)
It’s in all the podcast apps or you can listen YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kl508s5y9o
Any interesting point from them was that there was a deal framework in place. The Pakistan delegation had told Iran it was looking good. Then Iran asked the Qataries to check, and hours later they reported Trump was intransigent. The weekend revealed the Qatar delegation was correct and Pakistan lost some credibility with Iran.
Smotrich – yeah, that guy – was at the NYC Israel Day parade which prompted wide pushback.
NYTimes:
Right-Wing Officials’ Appearance at Israel Day Parade Leads to Backlash
Parade organizers and New York lawmakers who marched in the parade sought to distance themselves from Bezalel Smotrich, a hard-line Israeli official who attended.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/nyregion/nyc-israel-parade-smotrich-mamdani.html
NYC officials didn’t know he would be there? Come on…. Maybe he was there to sell real estate parcels? / ;)
He’s this guy:
Times of Israel
Smotrich: Gaza a potential real estate ‘bonanza,’ Israel talking with US about dividing it up
https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-gaza-is-real-estate-bonanza-israel-talking-with-us-about-dividing-it-up/
So, some in NYC were upset Mamdani wasn’t at the parade but were happy to march with this guy? oh kay….
Dems may finally get a clue–when it’s too late. They still think Trump is their all purpose whipping boy and will sustain them.
If Trump didn’t exist he would have to be created. What are the Democrats going to do when Trump leaves office and they no longer have him as a convenient scapegoat for why they cannot do anything? Granted, the priority of the Democratic Party is simply to fundraise as they do not seem to actually care if they win elections or not.
If this war is still going on by 2028, and we get a Democratic president, you can bet he will simply pick up from where Trump left off as the DNC is just as beholden to Israel as Trump and the Republicans are. So many “Balloon Juice liberal” types still cling to the idea that this will all go away once we get rid of Trump yet the vast majority of these endless wars, the growth of the surveillance state and our shadow government of plutocrats have had strong bipartisan support for decades.
Yeah, other than empty rhetoric and a different set of BS, I see absolutely no difference in US foreign policy, no matter which bought-and-paid-for puppets control Congress. The US is a one-party dictatorship, masquerading as a democratic republic. Elections Inc. are a great distraction and perpetuate the illusion of choice for the plebs. The public is divided and told to fight among themselves while the oligarchy rape and pillage the place. Same old story.
“centrists” : playing both sides against the middle where they proclaim themselves the middle. / ;)
aka: To manipulate two opposing sides of an argument, conflict, competition, etc., against one another for one’s own benefit or advantage.
That’s the uniparty.
I do not believe that the “mainstream leaders” of the Democrats, if that is the word, will ever “get a clue”. They have been committed to basically the same imperialist policies for decades; they have been committed to the same domestic neoliberal policies papered over with identity politics for decades; they have been committed to suppressing any hint of leftwingerism in the party for decades. This now spans across generations; the Bidens and the Clintons go away, the Newsoms and the Shapiros (the Pennsylvania guy) and the Pritzkers step up.
Waiting for some “progressives” to finally, finally marginally nudge the party in the general direction of modest reforms from the inside is much like waiting for Godot. In my view. The best outcome would be something like what happened to the Whigs in the 1850s – Richard Wolfe keeps hinting at something like this scenario, by the way – but I’m not holding my breath. The base case is probably more like a choice between becoming increasingly marginalized in favor of right wing populism (while continuing to punch out at left wing populists), or, as had happened in a number of European countries in the aftermath of World War I, an explicit alliance with the fascists in the room. Maybe that’s too bleak. But the party as it stands today is, to me, not salvageable, by design.
Including on the Israel issue. As long as the US perceives that Israel is its unsinkable carrier in the Middle East – literally, as the USAF has shifted a whole bunch of combat and refueling aircraft to Israel in recent days – and as long as dominating the Middle East is part of imperial policy objectives, they will ignore (beyond lip service) any Israeli misdeeds. Even if this continues to cost them places like Michigan. Instead, their response will be – as it was during the Russiagate era – to propose or endorse increasing levels of censorship to “control the narrative”.
Now, if ever the imperial policy objectives change, then, well, see Kissinger’s statement about America’s friends…
I believe that the DNC cannot be redeemed, but I am also not naive enough to think that third parties will ever be viable in our political system as it stands now because the duopoly has so much control over the election process and they would change the rules mid-race if they had to if a third-party candidate ever presented a realistic threat to their institutional control.
However, I do have an idea as to how to get around this, and I would like somebody to chime in on this in terms of if the laws would allow it.
What if we get candidates to run in either the Democratic or Republican parties as “trojan horses”? I.e. they are “Democrats” or “Republicans” then as soon as they take office, they change their party affiliation to that of a third party and then start appointing cabinet positions to other members of their third party and then they start building on this to get more trojan horses or third party members to get elected?. As far as I know, there is no current law saying that the president and Congressional members cannot do that, but I am sure that as soon as something like that did happen both parties would scramble to pass new laws to make sure that it never happens again.
This is an existential dilemma: sniff the glue (may be harmful) or get a clue (and loose their precious centrist identity).
From Simplicious the Thinker’s post-
‘NYT managed to get a bead on this development, noting that both the Russians and Iranians have essentially “tired” of Trump’s wiles and the US’s tricks in general, preferring to take their chances in war than continue the pointless bad-faith negotiations with a deceitful and decrepit American regime:
Part of the reason for the collapse of global trust is the continued egregiousness with which US leadership openly lies and ignores the legitimate concerns and demands of its negotiating rivals. Everyone has grown exhausted with Trump’s daily issue of statements which are rank insults to the intelligence of any respectable observer.’
That really sums it up. Trying to reason or negotiate with Trump is exhausting, especially as his first instinct is to turn feral if anybody disagrees with him. I think that the damage that he is doing to the US will be permanent. It won’t matter if a “good guy” is elected President after him and says how about we let bygones be bygones. It is too late for that.
It’s exhausting just reading about it everyday. If you were in the actual negotiation team, it would be torturous.
YS: ...the Trump Team continuing to broadcast its fantasies is maddening … And apropos the coming oil supply/price cliff, a point that seems still not to have sunk in … widespread denialism, particularly among those who hold themselves out as professionals….
This is the usual historical pattern, however: imperial elites simply unable to mentally process the new reality. We’ve already seen this inability in the EU neoliberal elites to grasp that their assumptions of hegemony have no basis in reality and now we’re seeing it on steroids in DC. . A few other historical instances off the top of my head: –
The late Roman senatorial class, 5th century, as figures like Sidonius Apollinaris kept writing elegant Latin poetry and letters about civilitas while the Western Empire dissolved, maintaining a cultural performance of Rome as a going concern. In that case, of course, Rome was an ongoing concern, only it was in Byzantium/Constantinople.
The French aristocracy, late 18th century, as even during the Revolution, some emigrated expecting to return within months once things settled down, treating it as a temporary disturbance rather than a structural collapse.
The Confederacy’s planter class, 1865 onward, with the whole Lost Cause mythology as a way of refusing to accept that the war had been lost decisively and that the social order built on slavery was gone. Many relocated to Brazil rather than accept the new reality.
The Austro-Hungarian aristocracy, post-1918, as anyone familiar with Joseph Roth’s Radetzky March and Stefan Zweig — who eventually committed suicide with his wife because the world they grew up in had vanished.
Where will the neoliberal financialization spreadsheet arbitrage elites escape to? / ;)
Argentina?
Argentina? Peter Thiel is leading the way.
Bunkers in New Zealand?
“The Austro-Hungarian aristocracy, post-1918”
Some of whom used their loathing of the post WWI outbursts of democracy and nationalism among their fellow countrymen as fuel in their project to impose neoliberalism on everyone everywhere forever after — viz von Mises and Hayek as per Quinn Slobodian’s Globalists: The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/36738613-globalists
Austria went through the first hyperinflation of the 20th century in 1919, well before Weimar…
Read all about it in When Money Dies.
Isn’t it obvious “Why Iran Is Bothering With Talks”? It shows Iran being “reasonable” and gives them opportunity after opportunity to show the US and Israel are unreliable negotiating partners, as well as liars. Contradicting Trump’s tweets has been effective. Trump’s people tried to paint Iran as being liars but independent verifications and events unfolding show that they have been telling truths more that Trump, a rather low bar but that is what it is. Trump’s reputation is in the toilet and being flushed lower because of all this. Same for Israel.
It shows Iran being “reasonable” and gives them opportunity after opportunity to show the US and Israel are unreliable negotiating partners, as well as liars.
I can accept this in principle, but I would think that it is perfectly clear to everyone by now. I do wonder how many times US and Israeli mendacity has to be demonstrated to give Iran sufficient cover to do whatever is they are going to do.
IMO I think they have continued to send messages in order to mobilize militarily. I think they (now, finally) know all too well that the US is not agreement capable. Since the first two attacks were surprises, they were not able to mobilize the military properly. The change in tone over the last few days, to me, indicates that they’re now fully mobilized and are ready to fight. However, the same “a military can’t stay at full operational readiness forever” statement that was discussed regarding the US military a few weeks ago would now apply to Iran.
Agree with Ruis and those who commented on his comment. I would add, that as Iran negotiates and waits for the Hormuz closure to have its effect, Iran is not suffering losses.
“And confirming that we are not crazy in seeing bizarre and widespread denialism, particularly among those who hold themselves out as professionals”
This is something I find baffling, especially since it is at least the third major shock to which the supposedly astute, foresighted, experienced captains of industry, knowledgeable about the nooks and crannies of the economy, have reacted in an oblivious way:
1) Brexit.
It was explained on this very site (among others) why the Brexit required a swift, coherent, well-organized, all-hands-on-deck endeavour by the British government to ensure that the UK would not end up cut off from suppliers and customers, tied up in endless logistical difficulties, and facing a substantial cost increase of its industrial and agricultural inputs.
It was also noted that the reaction of the British industrial, service, and financial sectors was muted, that none of them made pressure on the government to take matters seriously, and that there was no public announcements or initiatives to complain and make things roll.
2) EU sanctions against Russia.
It was explained at NC that the EU sanctions against Russia were not just self-defeating, but amounted to economic suicide: gone were the abundant and affordable oil, gas, coal, plenty of minerals (titan, phosphate, nickel, etc), neon, agricultural goods (wheat, sunflower oil, etc), but also the Russian business and consumer markets, the overflight routes for European airlines, and so on and so forth.
Again, no strong reaction, pressure, or warnings from industry, service, finance, agriculture. My personal contention was that large firms with an international presence did not care because they were just ready to relocate outside the EU, while SMEs did not have the lobbying muscle to influence the eurocrats and national politicians. But now comes the third blow.
3) Gulf war III.
Right from the beginning, it was pointed out here that the closing of Hormuz and the destruction of the hydrocarbon extraction, processing, and distribution infrastructure would have second order effects — e.g. less helium, diesel, plastics, and fertilizers — leading to a whole range of higher order effects — reduced agricultural production, reduced metal refining, reduced chip production, reduced packaging production — entailing serious problems e.g. in the distribution of foodstuffs and medicines.
And yet, despite a few not too loud warnings from some affected sectors (e.g. chemical industry in Germany, airline industry in Europe), most of the economic world seems extraordinarily complacent — instead of raising hell and laying siege to their governments to stop the madness.
In the largely privatized, neo-liberal world the economic sphere is generally assumed to dictate or at least strongly guide the policies of the states, and has long been critized for its undue influence on politicians. So why on earth is it repeatedly failing to at least attempt to steer away from policies that are so obviously detrimental, and even fatal, to its interests?
Yes, it is difficult to understand such complacency. My working thesis is that this is mere posturing to indicate the enemies that we are unaffected by scarcities while they are supposedly being crashed by sanctions, sanctions, sanctions! You are loosing we are winning. That’s it. And that is why Mr. Market, or as you more aptly say, the economic sphere, is so implicated in the waiting game. The Collective West may be loosing these conflicts but it is still able to show complacency to pretend the contrary. We can wear our best Armani while below the earth is crumbling.
And the oligarchy knows that they can grift all the way to the cliff. After the crash, they can come back and buy up everything at fire-sale prices. This will further concentrate the already perverse levels of wealth and power. Neo-Feudal Techno-Totalitarianism is right around the corner
@JonnyJames at 10:25 am
Totally agree. A severe economic downturn will be bad, even catastrophic, for the bottom 50% (and maybe more) but the oligarchs will increase their dominant position as you say. It is often stated here and elsewhere that the 1930s depression was a bad thing. Yes it was for many but it is not that simple. Prices dropped faster than wages so even many working class people, the 75% that kept their jobs, did just fine. Of course many had to support family members who were out of work but nonetheless their real wages rose. Still, the depression seemed set to go on forever so that was a definite negative, including for the capitalist class who didn’t know how to end the downward spiral. The massive government spending of World War II put an end to it. Prior to the war the great Keynes advocated big government spending but was not listened to. He was vindicated by World War II.
But further on that score, the main interest of the oligarchs is not the money they have but rather the power, influence and respect it gives them. Mikael Kalecki explained this in his seminal essay Political Aspects of Full Employment in 1943: while governments can technically eliminate unemployment using fiscal stimulus, capitalism fundamentally requires unemployment as a disciplinary tool to protect the power and social dominance of business leaders.
Yves has discussed this important essay in the past: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/08/kalecki-on-the-political-obstacles-to-achieving-full-employment.html
So our business leaders can still expect to dominate in the event of a severe economic downturn, even more so than today. If an actual economic collapse becomes a danger, they can count on government fiscal intervention and rationing of essential goods to save the day.
Thanks for that Keith, I hadn’t read that, but will now.
Talking about tired tropes, a few days ago, after the drone exploding in Galati Romania, Oana Toiu, Romanian foreign affairs minister was saying that “pressure must be kept on Russia to bring them to the table” (link in Spanish). When not in the mood for negotiations as is the case of US with Iran or EU with Russia, they have to at least pretend they would be able to negotiate something if only the other side would be able to “realise” that they have already lost (imagine) and need to come to terms… err negotiate. Naive thinking all over again.
Trump as “a lousy negotiator even in his prime”: the ghostwriter of The Art of the Deal, Tony Schwartz, famously rues that work of fiction, which might better be titled The Art of the Brand, since it is an exercise in promotion, the success of which far exceeds the wildest dreams of fame and avarice of Ron Popeil, father of the infomercial. If you’ve seen the scene in Truman’s office in Oppenheimer, you’ll have some idea of how Schwartz feels about writing incantations that helped animate this Israel-pwned golem of the simulacra.
The US has kept a very tight lid on the extent of US casualties, that censorship has a limited shelf life and I expect that the revelations about the dead and wounded will come at an awkward time for the Trump administration…
People are sensing weakness and this regime has made a lot of enemies, not all of them overt.
It’s going to be a lively Summer.
It’s not just the administration’s radio silence on this score, but none of the media are even attempting to dig into it and repeatedly ask the kind of questions that would’ve been asked even back during Dubya’s Iraq adventure. The media are so obviously under control of Propaganda Central now, but most of our population, including acquaintances of mine who claim to make the effort to be well-informed, are still unsuspecting.
their priority is re-scheduling their correspondents dinner so that they “don’t bow to violence [towards themselves]”.
right.
There has been little media curiosity in casualties in Ukraine. Something changed since 2003.
Rev Kev: “That really sums it up. Trying to reason or negotiate with Trump is exhausting, especially as his first instinct is to turn feral if anybody disagrees with him. I think that the damage that he is doing to the US will be permanent. It won’t matter if a “good guy” is elected President after him and says how about we let bygones be bygones. It is too late for that.”
Second time is farce – wasn’t Obama the “good guy” after Bush. But the same policies of continuous destruction in both foreign and domestic affairs of the commonwealth of USA citizens and people around the world are pursued for the benefit of the few.
The few have destroyed so many lives that there is “muted” response to self destructive behavior and policies. As the few suck up more and more it is like the receding ocean before the tsunami. And we will see who is naked.
Interesting times over the horizon.
Another day, another pathetic attempt by the lying liar who lies, lies, lies ™ to spike the markets.
This time, however, it went off like a damp squib. Crude up to $95 (WTI) and the Dow is red. Looks to me like operation “gaslight the markets for profit” is running out of steam.
“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.” Timely when Solzhenitsyn was quoted in The Observer in 1974. And timely now.
Don’t You Know That I Know That You Know?, Drivin’ N Cryin’
“The compulsion to lie when literally everyone knows you are lying is the defining political pathology of our time…”
— Jeffery St Clair, Counterpunch
Yep, been waiting for that — once Mr Market faces reality, Trump will have to either (a) admit defeat to save the economy or (b) go full jackpot. IOW it’s either fry later or fry now, not that it really matters much but the suspense is killing me.
Nothing to worry about folks, things are looking up! Oil prices will soon plummet, there’s a glut of crude just waiting to be delivered, Iran is in disarray, war will end soon. We can more likely expect 50 dollar crude than 100 plus!
Hard to read with a straight face.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/the-three-reasons-why-oil-is-staying-below-100-a-barrel.html?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
Those attempts are not pathetic if they are working.
And they are still working. The oil price (WTI) is stll less than $100.
We have the worst oil crisis ever and prices are still on the same level as in 2010-2014.
Trump says Iran agreed to not have nuclear weapons, but ‘they can change their mind’
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/trump-iran-war-nuclear-weapon.html
Norwegian teen, hired by Swedish crime group used by Iran, planned a UK murder, prosecutors told a London court
https://www.reuters.com/world/norwegian-teen-hired-by-swedish-crime-group-used-by-iran-planned-uk-murder-2026-06-03/
Seems legit.
It’s almost a cliche in movies that the best hitmen are barely legal age, always the second/better choice and use codenames that include the word ‘agent’ in them.
New Mystery Submarine Shows China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/06/new-mystery-submarine-signals-chinas-rapid-undersea-expansion/
report notes China is pumping out the subs, while the West struggles to build two a year. Darn hard to build subs if you have no access to processed rare earths (the article provides no explanation for the struggle)…
Glasgow Uni student could spend a year in prison for taking photos of US military planes
https://thetab.com/2026/06/03/glasgow-uni-student-could-spend-a-year-in-prison-for-taking-photos-of-us-military-planes
Thousands protest in Albania against Jared Kushner-linked resort project
https://www.timesofisrael.com/thousands-protest-in-albania-against-jared-kushner-linked-resort-project/
Pakistan inaugurates mosque in Japan. Tokyo says it’s ‘illegal’
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-inaugurates-mosque-in-japan-tokyo-says-its-illegal-11582763
Israel signs letter of intent with Inter-American Development Bank to create new investment funds
https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/israel-signs-letter-of-intent-with-inter-american-development-bank-to-create-new-investment-funds
Trump signs new order to shut down bank accounts | Under the order, Trump said, accounts used to support illegal immigration or to hold government benefits paid to undocumented immigrants could be closed, seized, or forfeited.
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/trump-signs-order-shut-down-225333740.html
And all the funds will go directly into Trump’s personal accounts. Better drain your bank accounts now.
The Jolly Roger administration. / ;)
Been thinking about the coming shortages but it is jet fuel that may be significant. When Oz shut down because of Covid back in 2020, you could hear the anguish of our PMC people about not being allowed to hop aboard a jet and fly to Bali or Europe. Something was taken away from them that they were entitled to and I think that it was these people that pushed to have the country open up again to Covid so that they would get their overseas trips back again. So I would suggest watching to see what happens when jet flights are cut way back and how some people react to it – though the billionaires will still fly their private jets around the world. That will not be a good look.
Wife & I work in international education. Everyone we know here in Korea is oblivious to the situation and expects their normal summer travel. They look at us like we’re mad when we say we aren’t going anywhere this year.
We don’t want to be stuck someplace with a canceled itinerary, forced to pay way too much money to get home. Or worse, left scrambling to return in time for the new semester.
They tell us it’ll be fine, everything is gonna be over soon 🙄 They aren’t gonna take it well if they get stuck on this windswept rock at Christmas
…on this windswept rock…
Shouldn’t you be “Some Guy in Tokdo*,” then? ;-)
Or else the pictures I’ve seen of Cheju-do* are blatantly misleading, not that I ever got any closer than Pusan*.
As far as the belief it’ll be over soon, nothing in my experiences there suggest that Koreans are any less prone to smooches from the Confidence Fairy (that beguiling little witch!) than any other group out there.
*yes, I’m that old and set in my ways regarding Korean-to-English spelling. I remember the fight over “President Bag.”
Ouch. One small typo in the “who and where” sections and I’m back into moderation. I’ll have to be more careful!!!!
You’ve seen the wrong photos! Jeju always looks best in bad weather– which is most of the time! But I must admit that I love this island dearly. It’s got character. Koreans call it their Hawaii, but it should be called their Ireland.
You’re right about Dokdo, but it’s not a rock– it’s a pile of seagull poop 😆
As for our oblivious colleagues, it’s not Koreans but foreign (mostly Western) teachers at international schools. Their sense of entitlement to travel always astounds me.
However, the locals also seem mostly unaware of the severity of the situation. Government is subsidizing gasoline like crazy
I think the fuel prices are hitting the marine sector here in the Pacific Northwest. I walked by a harbor that is usually filled with medium-expensive ships (no super yachts) and it was nearly empty. It might be an anomaly but I will be keeping rack.
I am thinking about starting an X account chronicling the effect the July tank bottom will have on tourism here since I feel tourism will be the first thing people cut out of their budget.
Sample of one. A friend who owns a storage center in NH said half the small boats in his storage have not moved out….
Zuckerberg recently sailed his BFO megayacht into Seattle. We saw it next to the Victoria Clipper on Admiralty Inlet, and M/V Arsebook appeared much the bigger of the two.
DoE EIA Petroleum Balance Sheet. Crude oil draw reported for week ending 29 May 2026.
8 million barrels released from SPR. 8 million draw down in commercial crude stock.
US net crude imports about .5 million barrel per day. Relatively low since Gulf War III started in February
And the US/Israel attacks on Iran is one big war crime to begin with, and just about everything Israel does is a crime. Stas Krapivnik said yesterday that Israel is a war crime, masquerading as a country.
Then the western “narrative” becomes outrage at Iran for acting in self-defense. The mass media implies that poor, innocent Kuwait (and the other “Gulf states”) are brutally attacked for no reason by Iran. Of course the victims must be blamed. It is not surprising, but still mind-boggling that the GCC family dictatorships are almost never called that by the western mass media. Even “progressive” news outlets decry Iran’s “brutal regime” and focus on Iran wantonly slaughtering its own people blah blah blah, while ignoring the head-chopping government of the KSA. Talk about brutal regime: KSA uses beheading with a sword and sometimes crucifixion as capital punishment. But that’s not important enough to mention. It’s “the Gulf states” and the Iranian “regime” blah blah repeated over and over until it becomes embedded
Analogy to a 18th century man of war… in peace or during cease fire the man of war need not shoot first as self “defense”.
Some much mall bovine excrement from the military that murders small boaters in the Pacific and Caribbean.
And yet so many of the groundlings will believe, because “‘Murika!!!”
Yves wrote: “Even though Trump quickly called Netanyahu and we are told by the White-House-stenographer-in-chief Barak Ravid, gave him the mother-of-all-chewings-out, all Netanyahu has done is hold back from bombing Beirut.”
In the previous Iran War thread there were several posts and references stating that the chewing-out was ‘just pretense.’
I believe the reports of that call (details may differ natch) — a furious Trump speaking in this way, with such vocabluary and shouting, is in character – he is a biz man and a show man. Plus, today, that these discussions / decisions / attempts influence the future are carried out by phone between two ‘leaders’ and not any ‘negotiations’ between ‘reasonable’ Gvmts ‘in teams’ is standard.
The US and Israel are in a symbiotic relationship. I don’t much like metaphors that reduce Nation / State relationships to personal ones, but here we go, phone calls, etc.
A drug-addicted couple ‘loves each other’ in some real ‘dependency’ sense, are always glued at the hip. Quarrels! — all the time, about trivia like tomatoes in the supermarket, other, shouts, screams dire threats (incl. killing..) ..they always go to bed hugging each other.
That Netanyahu would back down on just one extravagant plan / threat (bomb bomb bomb Beirut!) is typical. Then the other party says all is good now, etc.
If there is anything to be gleaned from the latest news about the US-Isr ties, it is that End-of-Empire Trump’s hug-hold of Israel is diminishing, the symbiotic relationship is teetering on some fronts, while also being soldered more strongly on others (see news about integrating US-Isr military, several posts on NC.)
You appear to be new here. I suggest you read our site Policies by reading them, since you have gotten off to a bad start by straw manning me. Violating our Policies is a sure way to be put in moderation or blacklisted.
That is not at all what I said. The point, which appears to have eluded you, is not whether or not a fight occurred but that it was reported promptly and in detail, as in deliberately leaked, and therefore likely an official leak, as intended to manipulate the public.
Ryan Grim and Saagar Entji pointed out that the two times before when the press reported on a big row between Trump and Netanyahu, that it in fact was a deception, since the US and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran almost immediately thereafter.
Here the deception may not be as great but intended to cover for the US not reining in Israel, which it clearly has the means to do:
You probably already linked to this, but in case not, Caitlin Johnstone halfway through the linked story lists almost twenty prior Barak Ravid reports of harsh disagreement between Netanyahu and Biden and his puppeteers, back when the senile Democrat was playing this game. Yes, Ravid likes describing these “mad at each other” phone calls to show how independent Israeli and US leaders are in their relations with each other. Like everything else that comes out of the Zionist media now, the safest bet you can make is that it is a lie.
You really “believe” the report from Axios? Or was that sarcasm? I would suggest looking into the background of Barak Ravid, as well as the long history of phony exchanges between Israeli PMs and US presidents. This has happened many times before. It is political theater for domestic consumption.
There’s an outside possibility that Trump was coaxed into making the angry call by his handlers. The power structure at the top of the executive branch is fascinatingly opaque. My impression of Trump includes that he’s malleable in the right hands.
I don’t think the point is whether the report is in any way truthful, but rather that there was this report at all. Someone (in the admin) wants to put it on record that such a spat took place, to give themselves a cover when things go haywire. I do wonder, though, if it’ll do any good even for the intended purpose: there were multiple reports of spats between Trump and Netanyahu when things went sideways before…which in retrospect looked like just attempts at distraction. I don’t think Trump will really be allowed to wash his hands.
Simplistic question here: Mr. Martenson writes: “This is the most robust chart in all of economics, and it shows that GDP has a near-perfect correlation to oil consumption.” As I understand it, approximately 20 percent of global oil supply flowed through Hormuz prior to the war. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php. Does this mean that global GDP can be expected to drop approximately 20 percent once oil inventories are drawn down? Assuming there is a large drop in global GDP, will that global GDP drop end up being allocated to countries based on their initial reliance on oil coming through Hormuz and their ability to source alternate oil supplies (or oil products such as gasoline, etc) or substitution effect with other energy sources? Thanks for considering; I hope I am not wasting folk’s time.
Imo that’s what the chart says, except some gulf oil has leaked out thru the saudi pipeline and a modest flow of oil mostly from Iraq. I’ve heard the actual average cut over the 3 months is around 14mmb/d, or about 14% of world supply. And not clear to me whether any suppliers outside the gulf, like Russia and Africa, have increased supply. But even if the cut is just 10% the chart is pretty scary.
11% x 100 million/day x 90 days would mean a billion barrels has come out of storage. If something cannot continue indefinitely it will stop. What we don’t know is where price goes.
Looking at an economy not as an aggregate of monetary values, but as a physical system: it is a machine that transforms inputs into consumable outputs by means of energy, and that correlation between GDP and oil tells you how strictly necessary energy is to growth. Less energy = less economy.
Now, the question of how that effect is distributed is a different one. I wouldn’t dare to delve into that. It is full of political as well as financial considerations. But the essential correlation, I think, is unavoidable. And energy will have that depressing effect for as long as there is an oil shortage after the war is over. There is no central bank easy money printing to save the day, here.
That’s my uninformed view. But I think that it is pretty clear that there is no way around a very, very severe global recession, and an equally severe global depression if oil production does not pick up quickly after the crisis.
Every action of the US or Israel in this conflict is self defense by definition. Every response by Iran is unprovoked aggression by definition. In fact the very existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran is an unprovoked aggression. And if you don’t believe me, just ask the State Department:
Operation Epic Fury and International Law
OK, they never quite come out and say it but as far as I can see it’s the only premise that any of this could follow from.
All the crimes and graft and utter amorality just passes over me most of the time and then I find myself caught short by the simple fact that somebody wrote this. (Or at least was willing to put his name to it.) A Michigan law degree, forty years of practice, and he sits at a desk and types or dictates or signs off on this while presumably maintaining some semblance of self-respect.
No, I can’t fit it into my small head. And it’s with more than a little shame that I discover that I seem to find the intellectual justification of the crime even more repulsive than the crime itself.
Pepe speaking on Judging freedom believes Iran now has or has access to a nuke. Larry Johnson also suggested that speaking with Mario and will soon be discussing it with the Judge at 11. If true things are going to get even more interesting if that possible.
Larry Johnson’s interpretation (live Napolitano interview) is that DJT’
s justification for the conflict became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A misjudgment of world-historical significance.
OTOH, perhaps there will be now be (MAD) peace in the Middle East.
Harping on my “everything is disconnected from everything”. What could Trump actually do at this point to improve the coming economic problems? The conflict with Iran is now disconnected from the coming economic problems.
Let’s say that products from the GCC area are down anywhere from 10% to 30% … maybe even 50% for some very specific things. Even if you open Hormuz back to previous levels today, it’s going to take from months to years to return things to how they were (transit, capacity, facilities, confidence, markets, etc.) So today’s 10% to 30% numbers will only creep up gradually … 13% to 14%, then maybe to 17% after a while, then 19%…
During that time, no one can predict how the gradual recovery will progress and how the players will be affected (how many will make sooo much money, how many will go sooo out business). Look at the early days of the conflict where every country was saying they had hard & fast rules about the amount of supply required (11 days of LNG for Taiwan, or was it Korea?) — we were all seriously concerned at the time, but one way or another they have all made do somehow, so far.
And so it will go as everyone bounces off everyone else as the 13% slowly improves to 15%, and so on.
Given that, there is nothing specific that Trump can do, will do?, would bother to do?, that would be a knowable, significant, solution. Everyone can scream as much as they want. The US can leave the blockade in place or remove it, they can claim it’s effective, they can attack Iran again, they could double-down on their presence in the area or quietly go home.
Basically whether Trump does nothing, or does some things, the overall economic / energy solution will work itself out (probably badly) on its own terms — even if some things snap big time, somewhere, for someone.
So now there’s even more incentive for Trump to do absolutely nothing except manage his narrative.
They’ve already done the easy, can-kicking type things. Release oil from the SPR. Re-route jet fuel to Europe. Temporary gas-tax holidays. We just had ours expire here in Georgia, and I noticed a huge line at the Costco yesterday as everyone tried to fill up one last time before the 33 cent kick to the solar plexus hits.
Entropy will have the last laugh, as always. I really hope it bites hard before the mid-terms, because I want to see Taco squirm like a worm on a hook. But as you say, he’ll probably do nothing but manage the narrative. We have precedent – see how he behaved during the pandemic’s early days. I seem to recall him saying something in March of 2020 about it all being over by Easter. That’s a pattern, it compares nicely with his statements about the Iran war being over 34 times in the past 30 days.
But his white matter disease hadn’t progressed nearly as badly then as it has now. If we get to a real crisis that demands fast, hard decisions (rationing, banning non-essential air travel) I would expect him to lose his mind completely and gaslight all of us into the stone age.
An America 250 celebration with a Netanyahu coin, Netanyahu passport, Netanyahu rally, Netanyahu ballroom, Netanyahu Arch, et al. Iran is figureing out how to play Trump . Next thing you know they will be manipulating the US stock market.
FYI…..From Presstv Iran
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/03/769793/Iran-targets-United-States-destroyer-command-and-control-center
Trump Sports Swollen Eye Days After Surprise Medical Checkup | The president’s eye and hand were visibly swollen as he continues to dodge questions about his health.
https://newrepublic.com/post/211296/trump-swollen-eye-hand
‘Maybe we’ll never take it down’: Trump compares White House UFC arena to Eiffel Tower, says it could be permanent
https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-compares-white-house-ufc-arena-eiffel-tower/story
US officially announces reduction of participation in NATO forces, Europe urged to take on more responsibility
https://unn.ua/en/news/the-us-officially-announces-reduction-of-participation-in-nato-forces-suggests-europe-take-on-more-responsibility
GOP Lawmaker Files Resolution to End $3.8 Billion Aid to Israel
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/marlin-stutzman-israel-mike-huckabee/2026/06/03/id/1258387/
Mario Nawfal | IRAN JUSTIFIES ATTACK ON KUWAIT, BAHRAIN AS “SELF-DEFENCE” – w/ Dimitri Lascaris [video]
Here.
Dimtri Lascaris, who is admirably direct, seems to be channeling—or, maybe, actually reading—this blog. He’s said emphatically, on more than one occasion including in this video, that there will be no negotiations between the US and Iran because there is “no overlap” between the two countries’ positions and, also because President Trump is “bonkers…wacko…off his rocker…certifiably insane.” He also gives an interesting take on how the “everyone hates you, everyone hates Israel” exchange between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu works to the benefit of both men, even if, as Lascaris believes, it didn’t happen, at least not in the way it’s portrayed.
It’s wild how little coverage there is
Senate abandons Trump: New ICE funding bill leaves out $1B for ballroom, $1.8B ‘slush fund’
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/senate-trump-ballroom-slush-fund-b2989017.html
People with cancer or HIV could lose Medicaid under new work rules, advocates say
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/03/nx-s1-5845097/medicaid-work-requirements-cuts-hiv-cancer
DHS Secretary Refuses Again and Again to Say He’ll Follow Court Orders – Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin won’t guarantee that he’ll abide by the law.
https://newrepublic.com/post/211280/dhs-secretary-mullin-refuses-follow-court-orders
Trump Says Iran Has Agreed to Not Have a Nuclear Weapon as Gulf Hostilities Flare Amid Fresh Strikes
https://time.com/article/2026/06/03/trump-iran-nuclear-weapon-update-fresh-strikes-gulf-nations-hostilities/
A sternly-worded letter has just been sent by the House to Emperor Nero!
House votes to rebuke Trump over war with Iran
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-rebuke-trump-war-iran-rcna348281
House votes to limit Trump’s Iran war powers in remarkable rebuke
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/03/politics/house-iran-war-powers-vote
‘…The vote was 215 to 208 with Republican Reps. Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett and Warren Davidson crossing party lines to support the resolution ….’
Etcetera, blah blah blah.
House passes resolution to end the Iran War
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5908560-iran-war-resolution-house/
Well, at least it is something, even if symbolic. There seems to be a major flaw in the War Powers Act. It is intended to allow Congress to restrain an aggressive Executive who usurps Congress’s power to declare and fund wars. But how can that work at a practical level, if the same Executive can veto a War Powers Resolution?
How will Senate vote?
How many Senate Dems will refuse to hold the vote? How many will vote with the GOP?
Schumer won’t vote against this war. He will probably expend some efforts to avoid having to. This will enable many other dems to guarantee their AIPAC checks just in time for the midterms.
When I look at how the democrats are treating Platner (among other non AIPAC primary winners) it doesn’t make me optimistic.
The Senate voted to advance a War Powers resolution restraining Orange Julius a few weeks ago. It was a procedural vote and not a final vote on the underlying resolution. These are supposed to be privileged; however, the Senate is notoriously slow in deliberating, and one Senator can usually hold things up for any reason. So I would bet that Thune, being the Majority Leader, can keep a final vote on the back burner for a while.
And as Amateur Socialist points out, we can count on the Democrats to cooperate in obstructing the vote or siding with the war mongers.
Well, if DJT is really as desperate as some think to extricate US/himself from Bibi’s war on Iran, how about taking the word of the US House or Representatives and saying he’s obeying the will of the American people, as spoken by the most responsive body created by the US Constitution? TAKE YOUR CHANCE NOW, Donald! Just do it. You’ll be remembered better for that action, I guarantee.
Why does it matter? The US House has spoken. In any reasonable world, isn’t that enough?
AI Billionaires Are Starting to Get Scared
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ai-billionaires-starting-scared-140123942.html
Good.
Just now — 4 p.m. Central — finished watching the Two Larrys (Johnson & Wilkerson) with Danny Haiphong. One topic was this … topic … that started a week or so ago as a rumour — and now has arguably developed into a report — that Iran in fact has a nuke. Whether it is ready to launch or whether the warhead needs to be bolted onto the rocket and the software installed is neither here nor there. The panel cited a Pakistani source and saw this new (-ly acknowledged) reality as a plausible explanation for the dramatic toning down we’ve seen lately of the Clown’s comments re: blasting Iran back to the Stone Age. On the Iranian side, I’m curious about how this squares with their often-repeated ‘we do not have and do not want a nuke; see our fatwa’.