[Today’s Iran war post below is more or less complete, but I had to run out. I expect to add a few tidbits when I return, so please return or refresh this page at 8:00 AM EDT]
We have said it would be better if we were wrong about the Iran war not ending in a negotiated settlement, But if a final deal is consummated that is tantamount to a US capitulation, one can argue that that qualifies one of the non-negotiated alternatives we had posited, that of regime change. Whether or not the US and Iran get to a final agreement, Iran has displaced Israel as the dominant power in the Middle East and the perception of US primacy all over the world has taken a major blow.
You can find the text of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), as read out to reporters, in Footnote 1. Trump signed it in Versailles. apparently ignorant of the ignominy of the 1918 Treaty of Versailles that ended the Great War. Keep in mind that the odds a deal will not be completed are high, and the 60 day deadline seems unrealistic, particularly given the fact that real estate hucksters and a not-terribly-seasoned Vice President are leading the US effort, plus Trump 1.0 fired many career staffers and more have exited in his second term. Alastair Crooke has pointed out that agreeing to a cessation of hostilities is easy, but once that happens, opponents go to work to pull the two sides apart. We will soon turn to Israel, since the US effectively agreed to enforce an Israel withdrawal from Lebanon, which Israel fiercely opposes. But remember that Iran’s position is that nothing is settled until everything is settled, so we will flag some other points that seem breakdown prone.
In addition, Robert Pape has stressed that global oil supplies will remain on a knife edge through the negotiating period and will actually tighten, increasing Iran’s leverage. Thus Iran’s incentives during the talks will be to be very hard nosed and to threaten to and perhaps actually re-close the Strait of Hormuz, such as if Israel fails to come to heel. Any additional interruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would rattle shippers, extend the timetable for delivery of oil and normalization. That would also maintain Iran’s economic leverage if the negotiation deadline wind up being extended. Keep in mind additionally that the talks going into September could add to Trump/Republican midterm woes.
In case you harbored doubts:
Well, yes, Iran did achieve total victory https://t.co/LTPYFQPPHx
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion) June 18, 2026
The White House read the final terms of the Memorandum of Understanding out to reporters last night. As you can see below, it includes, in Paragraph 1, the US and Iran seek to bind their allies to cease hostilities, including “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” That means Israel has to withdraw from Lebanon. More on that later in this post.
Paragraph 13 sequences the process, requiring the parties to start implementing Paragraph 1, 4 (end of US naval blockade; commitment to reduce force accumulation after 30 days), 5 (Iran “best efforts” to restore Strait of Hormuz traffic, with the first 60 days fee free, and to work with Oman and Gulf States on ongoing arrangements), 10 (termination of sanctions and issuance of waivers) and 11 (releasing or providing access to frozen assets) right away and, “the continuing implementation of these measures,” will negotiate the other issues. That means either party can suspend the talks or walk away entirely if they think there is a breach on any of those points.
It also seems that it will be impossible for the US to deliver on Paragraph 6:
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
Infrastructure deals are extremely complex and very high fee and would require Iran to convey title of the assets being “reconstructed” to the fund, which is na ga happen. It is hard to see how the US, which has done the Gulf States great harm with its Iran war caper, has the leverage to get them to agree to pony up most/all of $300 billion when they have their own rebuilding needs.
So what does Iran do when the US fails to deliver on this commitment? The MOU already contemplates that Iran will regularize its control of the Strait of Hormuz and presumably charge fees after 60 days. We had said that Iran likely understands full well that the US cannot satisfy this requirement and might explicitly use this to impose fees at a level designed to realize $300 billion over time (as in use this explicitly with the Gulf States as an alternative to funding reconstruction). However, Robert Pape has argued that Iran will seek to maximize its power, and its highest value “ask” is for the US to withdraw forces across the region.
Finally, I beg to differ with our esteemed Auerlien on his view of the UNSC resolution in Paragraph 14. His view had been, Third, the Iranian reference to the UNSC is probably intended to politically embarrass the US, rather than achieve anything concrete.” IMHO, following Pape, this is very important symbolically, given that Iran was on the receiving end of not just one but three attempted UNSC votes, the first passed, with a record number of co-sponsors which condemned Iran for “egregious attacks” with no mention that it was the US and Israel that had started this fight. This is a Steve-Jobs-returns-to-Apple level geopolitical statement, in the form of official statement (if also strictly speaking, symbolic) that Iran had been in the right all along.
The press is taking different postures in their headlines about the status of the MOU. Only some are making clear that this “deal” has a long way to go to get done:
From the Washington Post:
USA Today is astonishingly non-informative:
The Wall Street Journal does USA Today one better by not even putting anything about “the deal” above the fold:
Fox by contrast applies porcine maquillage heavily:
The Financial Times makes “the deal” its lead item:
And from BBC:
Bloomberg, which has consistently peddled every bit of deal hopium, refreshingly does a good job of cataloguing how far it falls short of US/Israel aims, as well as Trump’s new and improved barker patter. deal cheerleading:
President Donald Trump and his team had several red lines that they used to justify the US war against Iran. At a press conference on Wednesday, Trump largely brushed them aside.
Explaining his decision to agree to an interim peace deal, Trump repeated his insistence that the country would never get a nuclear weapon. Yet he went on to suggest that Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, be allowed to develop ballistic missiles and get access to billions of dollars in frozen funds.
Those three things have been at the center of the debate around how to approach Iran for years, dating to the 2015 agreement that the US, under President Barack Obama, and other great powers signed with Iran to limit its nuclear program….
To be sure, he [Trump] has a history of taking a hard stance only to reverse it days — sometimes even hours — later….
But there was plenty in the press conference that surprised even the president’s supporters.
Take Iran’s ballistic missile program…Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US objective was to “destroy the missile threat” posed by Iran.
Trump shrugged off that idea…He even derided those offering him advice — he referred to them as “guys I like” — as focusing on the wrong thing with the fixation on ballistic missiles. “I mean, they have to have some because other people have some,” Trump said.
“Missiles aren’t the problem,” Trump told reporters. “They hurt a little location but they don’t blow up the planet.”
The president took the same approach with nuclear enrichment. For years, he and many Republican critics of Iran have questioned why it should be allowed to enrich uranium if, as it insists, it doesn’t want a nuclear weapon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News in May that Iran needs to “walk away from enrichment.”
With Rubio standing right behind him on Wednesday, Trump made clear he no longer agreed.
“It’s a little hard when other people have it, other adjoining states have it, and you’re not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that,” Trump said. “You have to use a little common sense.”
The third red line Trump crossed centered on Iran’s frozen assets. The country has billions of dollars in overseas accounts that the US has blocked banks from releasing. Part of the justification for years has been that Iran is a leading state sponsor of terrorism, funding proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and can’t be trusted not to do so again.
“It’s not our money, it’s their money — and we froze it at a certain point in time,” Trump said. “I guess we’re going to have to give it back, you know. If we didn’t give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again.”
The Wall Street Journal landing page story, Trump Signs Iran Deal, Says He Wants to Avoid ‘Economic Catastrophe’, highlights why Trump folded:
Trump—who in an unexpected move signed the deal Wednesday in Versailles—said he was influenced by the stock market’s rise as he worked toward a resolution of the conflict. He said he didn’t want to be compared with former President Herbert Hoover, who was president during the 1929 market crash that led to the Great Depression.
“He was always the one I didn’t want to be,” Trump told reporters at the Hôtel Royal where he and other world leaders gathered for the Group of Seven meeting. “I didn’t want to see an economic catastrophe.”
The Journal adds that an initial day negotiation session will start in Switzerland on Friday and that Trump does not see the 60 day timeframe as cast in stone.
Oddly, the Journal did not mention the key consideration that led Trump to relent, and one we have been banging on about from some time, that of the coming energy cliff. From The Hill in Trump says oil reserves would run out in 4 weeks without Iran deal, risking ‘bedlam’:
President Trump said Wednesday that oil reserves could have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz were not opened.
“We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said in France while at the Group of Seven summit, discussing the recent memorandum of understanding with Iran. “You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.”
He said it would be “bedlam” if the oil ran out.
“What this does is it allows the ships to go,” he said of the Iran deal. “If we keep bombing, those ships won’t be going.”
It’s not entirely clear whether Trump was referring to U.S. or global oil inventories. The White House declined to elaborate, referring The Hill back to Trump’s original remarks.
The “four weeks” is squarely in line with the July timeframe we have been discussing for when the oil cliff will arrive. Even though, as Jeff Currie (and our own reader vao) pointed, out, the ending of the dueling blockades will allow tankers bottled up in the Gulf to deliver their cargoes, that only provides a week to ten days of supply (note that the more Trump was accurate that the US was able to sneak a lot out under Iran’s nose, the less will be transiting out soon). So the cliff is still operative and Trump will be very eager not to have Iran make a precarious situation worse by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, with Israel intransigence the most likely trigger.
In a talk shortly before the Administration released the final language, Robert Pape described long form not only why the MOU was a US capitulation but also the energy cliff still being in play meant Iran was ideally positioned to extract more concessions over the negotiation period:
Aljazeera’s live feed at the top says Israel is not complying with the MOU:
- US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian have electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US and Israel’s war on Iran.
- Israeli forces continue military operations in Lebanon despite its inclusion in the US-Iran MoU.
And:
⚠️ Breaking: Israel has carried out a drone strike Kfar Tebnit, Lebanon in violation of Iran-US MoU.
— Ehsan Safarnejad (@Safarnejad_IR) June 18, 2026
Israeli minister Ben-Gvir insists Israel will continue full-force operations in southern Lebanon:
Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir:
We cannot stop destroying houses in southern Lebanon. We cannot stop, period.
We cannot allow the population of southern Lebanon to return. … We must continue to control the territory even if Trump disagrees.
We are an… pic.twitter.com/vhHo7K1Ttv
— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2026
Admittedly, it is possible that Israel will leave Lebanon the hard way, by being expelled, as opposed to Iran dropping the hammer by closing the Strait of Hormuz again:
Hezbollah is currently decimating the remains of the Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon. Dozens of Israeli terrorists injured and at least 2 killed today. Nonstop Hezbollah attacks in the south now. If the IOF don’t leave in the ceasefire, they will leave in coffins.
— Hadi (@HadiNasrallah) June 18, 2026
Please click through. Some of the points are the same as made by Pape:
Israel views the now revealed MOU as a massive strategic defeat. Here is what Jerusalem is actually afraid of and why each fear is real:
1) Clause 10 issues oil waivers the moment the MOU is signed, before Iran gives up anything concrete. Israel watched the Iranian economy…
— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) June 17, 2026
On the economic front, Jeff Currie is doubling down on his call for much higher oil prices:
Jack Prandeli on Twitter provides some prices that confirm the Currie thesis that normalization will take so long that the oil cliff will arrive:
PetroChina couldn’t find a tanker.
Neither could Indian Oil.
Here’s what actually happened this week:
PetroChina tried to hire a Very Large Crude Carrier a ship that holds 2 million barrels to load Iraqi crude between June 25-30.
Got 6 offers.
All at freight rates nearly triple pre war levels.
Still couldn’t close a deal.Why?
In PetroChina’s own words:
“There are tankers available, but the problem is it’s too expensive and there is no guarantee you can exit the strait.”Indian Oil ran a tender for the same period.
Received zero offers.Sinochem is still hunting.
PetroChina, Indian Oil, and Sinochem are 3 of the largest state oil companies on earth.
If they can’t get tankers through Hormuz at any reasonable price, nobody can.
This is the gap between the headline and the reality.
Financial markets priced the peace deal.
Shipping markets priced the risk.Freight rates 3x pre-war.
Insurance clauses requiring special Hormuz guarantees. No assurance a loaded 2-million-barrel ship can exit safely.
Mind you, the pricing could change by early-mid next week.
Some positive news, albeit on the LNG, not oil, situation:
Qatar LNG flows rebound
A QatarEnergy LNG carrier has returned to Ras Laffan and loaded more than 209,000 m³ of #LNG, becoming the first known ballast vessel chartered by the firm to re-enter the Gulf for reloading since the conflict disrupted commercial shipping through the… pic.twitter.com/g2JyHBaAvz
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 18, 2026
Finally, this is predictable but does not bode well:
Pete Hegseth violated the Iran MOU on the first day by threatening force againt Iran. "to refrain from the THREAT or use of force against each other"
— Garland Nixon (@TheGarlandNixon) June 18, 2026
Done for today! Whether this site weighs in on Iran tomorrow is likely very dependent on what Israel does.
_____
📌 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The text of the MOU, as read out loud on a conference call with reporters, including from NYT and The Hill, on Wednesday:
🔹Paragraph 1
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
🔹Paragraph 2
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
🔹Paragraph 3
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.
🔹Paragraph 4
Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
🔹Paragraph 5
Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
🔹Paragraph 6
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
🔹Paragraph 7
The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
🔹Paragraph 8
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
🔹Paragraph 9
Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
🔹Paragraph 10
The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
🔹Paragraph 11
The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
🔹Paragraph 12
The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this M.O.U. and the future compliance of the final deal.
🔹Paragraph 13
After signing this M.O.U. and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this M.O.U., and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
🔹Paragraph 14
The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution.
I love the way Ben-Gvir states that we are an independent state and we’re going to go our own way.
Sounds like a plan. Start paying your own way then.
Just maybe his world is starting crumble. We can hope.
mgr: We can hope.
You can hope. But Israel has a friend that’s the most populous country in the world and that’ll be an increasing factor in the coming years–
What Brings Netanyahu and Modi Together: the making of an unlikely alliance
As Israel’s isolation deepens, ties with New Delhi are growing
https://archive.ph/A3ToL
https://www.ft.com/content/5829cf25-42c0-4aa4-84d7-9142ab66d6d4
Is that supposed to be a joke? India is a total mess. Sure, they can buy weapons, drones and surveillance stuff from Israel and support it that way. But to regard India as a substitute for the US?! It’s beyond hilarious.
If you’ve ever seen Modi and his RSS goons in action, it’s edifying. These guys are not geniuses. There’s nothing India will do to help Israel except to send cheap expat labor and IT services.
India can provide meat and strategic depth for defense manufacturing now that the US’ians are no longer willing. 💀
Indian can barely manufacture enough for its own armed forces. And they won’t be sending soldiers to fight for Israel, the Indian army already having problems with recruitment and not having enough men to man it’s borders.
Most they have to offer is cheap labor.
The dreadful clause in the new US defense bill merging US and Isr millitaries is still there waiting for a floor vote in the House.
I want a recorded voice vote. I want to know how my reps vote on this ” jonathan pollard is our hero ” bill.
Agreed, bears close attention
Do we know when the reps will vote?
That. Maybe he can come speak before Congress and try to get a standing O like Bibi did against Obama.
Prob is though that Israel, under the fanatics, has been burning its bridges with the American public and many American Jews if not necessarily with Congress poodles. Perhaps a half standing, half crouching O.
half-standing half-crouching…
Isn’t that called the toady-ing position? / ;)
Bibi releasing the Epstein blackmail files would be great. The blackmailer loses his leverage. Blackmailers are held in almost as much contempt as human traffickers and child-fiddlers.
Do it, Bibi!
The Israelis were actually stupid enough to say that they have the Epstein files out loud. A tacit admission they were the ones operating behind Epstein and exploiting young girls and boys for sexual blackmail, extortion and subordination of political, business and government elites for twenty some years. Will lame stream media pick up on that? I believe the blow back would terrific if that ever happens (given the ownership of the US media).
All they have to do is put Trump’s volume out there and they scare everyone else to keep toeing their line. They do Trump and so what? That bloated idiot is fucked no matter how he tries to play it. “ Stabbed in the back” sound familiar?
Israel has not admitted that publicly, to my knowledge.
Indian Oil can’t get an oil tanker to go to the gulf…that should give Modi pause when thinking of becoming Israel’s new bestie
Re: Lebanon (via Fars Telegram)
[Foreign ministry spokesman] Baqaei: If the Zionist regime’s aggression in Lebanon continues, it will be considered a violation of America’s commitments.
🔹We do not separate America and the Zionist regime, but their differences in methods and approaches are clearly evident.
🔹It is America’s responsibility to force the Zionist regime to respect America’s commitments to Iran in this document.
—–
With the dual tools of 1. Simply closing Hormuz again or 2. Taking kinetic action to encourage Israel’s exit
That said, I expect Trump to wriggle and deny it means Israel withdrawal. Fortunately, Iran holds all the cards.
This turn of events is potentially springing a scenario where the Israelis find out where their tolerance for pain ends.
If it comes to the above, will the US just sit and watch? Will Modi be Bibi’s new BFF?
Interesting times.
Thinking this further. Thesis*:
Israel will refuse to leave. Iran will close (or maybe more accurately “not actually open”) the Strait. The gluttonous degenerates we call leaders in this world will lose their bananas in panic for their feeble economies. The equation will be perfectly clear.
—-
Everyone will pressure Israel to move out of Lebanon eventually, right? (Excepting the not insignificant minority who want Holy War with the Islamic Hordes).
But it’ll take a while, and the Strait will be closed.
Assuming Trump understood the oil cliff situation, he will be very mad at Bibi. Everyone hates Bibi.
How much will Israeli intransigence affect the Strait and therefore flow of cargo? Non-zero you’d have to think.
Could Bibi hold out in Lebanon until 27th October (election day)? Bibi against the world. You love to see it :)
—
And assuming the portion of the war where the GCC energy assets are at risk is over, maybe soon we will get better predictions for that part of supply coming back online / morphing into whatever it’s gonna be.
—-
*Assumes Iran will exert it’s power towards getting Israel out of Lebanon.
interestingly the electoral polling math has shifted the frontrunners again and Bennett is now in third place with potential voters in polls done after the MOU was released. Eisenkot is now leading the opposition and depending on how you poll may even be leading Netanyahu. So if they really do try to push this there could be internal fractures that contribute to the collapse of the government and elections sooner than scheduled.
I think things are too dynamic to game out much yet. Maybe in a few days things will be clearer
So … Eisenkot > Netanyahu > Bennet? With a “maybe” on the Eisenkot > Netanyahu?
Thank you RJ.
Here’s a recent electioneering interview with Eisenkot from Ynet for those who want to know a bit more about him.
so this is the mou that trump agreed to, and is now pretending/insisting was what we were after all along, or something?
talk about a headfake,lol.
this appears to be what Iran was after all along, but with added benefits for them.
i will be interested to see how trump tries to spin this as a great victory.
his utterances so far, seems he’s appealing to Rationalism…which is just weird, all by itself.
havent had time to go lurk in righty comments sections or righty twitx.
…and theres been no political talk to eavesdrop on at the feed store.
havent been anywhere else in town in a while.
local faceborg is silent on this, too…obsessed with the murder/suicide that happened here(!!) this last sunday.(this kind of thing is super-duper rare out here)
Agree that DJT now sounds very reasonable. I guess it’s nice to know that he can do that when there is no alternative.
I thought I had ceased being surprised by anything Trump says, since he will literally say anything and then contradict himself a day, or an hour, later. But still, I was taken aback by his nonchalant “justifications” for his capitulation. “Well gosh, other folks have missiles, so I guess Iran should have some, too,” or “other countries around them are able to have nuclear power, so…” You could say Trump sounds “reasonable” now – if it wasn’t for the fact that this *completely contradicts* his previous statements that led up to the war. But then what else is new, I guess.
It is humorous watching all the Zionists and their shills go nuts over this. But for all the reasons laid out by Yves and others here, I will assume nothing and do no celebrating any time soon until I see some concrete, non-reversible results.
I think someone slipped some shrooms into his diet-coke at the UFC event.
Or his advisors just convinced him that this was the most expedient thing to say at this moment. I’ve sort of concluded that Trump doesn’t really distinguish between statements that are perfectly reasonable and ones that are quite nutty. He says whatever he considers to be expedient, right now. It was expedient then, to sound quite reasonable toward Iran and its ambitions. -this probably because Iran currently wields the whip.
I think he has decided that the most important thing is for the oil to flow, period. What he says at any moment is ever and always in service to whatever he thinks in that moment is most important. If he hangs onto believing the most important thing is the flow of oil, he will force Israel out of Lebanon and whatever else it takes. And he’ll rationalize it to himself and the world in whatever way it occurs to him in any given moment. The justifications come after the decision, they are not what led to the decision.
I believe him that he’s afraid of becoming Hoover if the oil doesn’t flow, and I’m grateful to whichever advisor got him to see it that way. If they keep him seeing it that way all the way through to full restoration of oil (and all other products) flowing through the strait on whatever terms necessary for Iran, fantastic, I’d give my undying gratitude.
Trump’s gift is that he knows how to talk the talk. . . to the point of being to talk the talk both up and down and sideways within a 24 hour span. . . leaving the rest of us confused about what his intention is. Walking the walk on the other hand. . .
I think the word you’re looking for is “gaslighting,” rather than “headfake.”
Or maybe even the more classic, “sour grapes.” (or maybe “reverse sour grapes) as in “I really wanted what I got”}
But that’s the MOU today. There’s always Tomorrow’s Version to see….
I’ve got you right where you want me!!
Plenty of other countries are going to be looking at this paragraph:
Admittedly, as we have discussed here many times, Iran is in an excellent position with regard to having a big population, highly educated (particularly after the fall of the shah), a unique geography (mountains), and a unique geographic position, dominating a narrow and shallow strait.
Yet other countries are likely to note the hollowness, capriciousness, and captiousness of the sanctions regime. Have the U S of A and mega-poodles of the E3 lost another wonderweapon?
On the other hand, many smaller countries that the U S of A likes to push around don’t have as many options. Cuba can’t bomb Israel. But Iraq can.
I imagine a lot of countries are looking at Iran’s impregnable non-nuclear arsenal and taking notes too.
Indeed. And I think Iran also gets nukes within a few years.
Why bother? More trouble than they’re worth, they’re in violation of the fatwah against having them, and overwhelming conventional force seems to do just fine. They’d be better off without ’em.
Compare Libya and North Korea … :) Also, 15r43l has them, so …
It’s the ultimate insurance … :) But to Ben Panga’s point, Iran has also shown the world how to use cheaper, non-traditional weaponry to keep adversaries at bay.
DJG: On the other hand, many smaller countries that the U S of A likes to push around don’t have as many options.
After Tehran, real men go to Havana?
There’s always Haiti.
The impending global energy meltdown has ultimately slowed #teamTrumpAmerica down, as well as this being a midterm election year. I think the major benefit to Dems (potentially) winning will not be domestic policy, but foreign policy. There will be a pause in the belligerence and that may be all Cuba needs to have the Chinese and the Russians fortify the battlements.
[Expunged because included AI content]
WRT the symbolism of Versailles, I was thinking about the other one, in 1871, which might be a more apt comparison in a way…although I guess Iranians weren’t there formally inaugurating a new great power a few weeks before.
At least Trump got to sign his surrender document in a palace instead of a railway carriage-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compi%C3%A8gne_Wagon
I wonder why Macron did not lend Trump the railcar where Hitler accepted France’s surrender in 1940?
Trump would identify with Hitler!
The fact that Vance is the point man for this MOU, and Rubio is far into the background, makes me pessimistic.
I’ll never forget how Biden threw Kamala under the bus making her responsible for, among other things, the southern border.
Giving the VP anything seems like a poison pill in the American system.
Robert Barnes insists that Vance abandoned his political ambitions some time ago, that he opposed the war, and that he’s been doing everything he can, given the givens (Trump, Witkoff, Kushner, Netanyahu, Hegseth, Graham), to end it.
If Barnes is right then it may be that we largely have Vance to thank for getting us to this extraordinary capitulation.
Or maybe we have the looming oil cliff to thank.
No doubt that was Trump’s big motive, as he has said. I just wonder if anyone else in his insanely awful team could have negotiated this surrender memo with the Iranians.
True enough. I wonder if he will be sacked for his efforts.
Of course Trump joked about that very thing at his press conference, saying he could take the credit if it succeeded and let “JD” take the blame if it failed. It got a big laugh from the journalists in attendance.
You gotta say this about Trump; he rarely hesitates to say the quiet parts out loud.
Veep JD suffers the fate of all denizens of DC who are perceived to be right for the wrong reasons. Now that Donnie’s Excellent Adventure has gone south, JD gets handed the blivet to parade around for commentary as everyone holds their nose. If he had a working brain cell and a more robust spinal cord he would have gone immediately to his chair high atop the august senate and pretended to mull over the important work of naming rural post offices. SoS Little Marco, whose primary task as I understand it is to administer foreign affairs, doesn’t pass the smell test, but is yet again wrong for all the right reasons and therefore continues to bask in Donnie’s robust shadow. As funny as a barrel of monkeys.
A stupid question, probably: what are the agencies in Ben Gvir’s portfolio? How much “paramilitary assets” does Israel have? (I’m guessing his portfolio includes various “security forces” and “police” other than IDF, but what and how much of these does Israel have and how much “control” does he actually have over these?)
Actually it’s a lazy question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_National_Security_(Israel)
The Ministry of National Security is the statewide law enforcement agency and oversees the Israel Police, the Israel Prison Service and the Israel National Fire and Rescue Services, Israel Border Police, National Headquarters for the Protection of Children on the Internet, National Authority for Community Safety and the Authority for Witness Protection.
The position has been held by Itamar Ben-Gvir since March 2025.
I guess what I was really wondering was what actual assets dp these agencies control. Gor example, is the Authority for Eitness Protection, notwithstanding the name, a paramilitary agency with tens of thousands of troops? (Yes, wilfully obtuse question.) But, seriously, does Israel have serious paramilitary security forces under rubric “police” that answer to Ben Gvir?
Israeli’s defiance of the MOU requirement for it to leave Lebanon recalls its attempts to retain Sinai after occupying it in the 1956 Suez Crisis. Eisenhower forced Israel to leave Sinai through a combination of economic and diplomatic pressure. Economic pressure included threats to cut off all economic assistance including tax deductible donations, bond purchases and military assistance. Ike bypassed the UN Security Council with veto equipped Britain and France by obtaining a Geneal Assembly resolution calling for withdrawal. Recommended is You Tube video “What Eisenhower Did When Israel Refused to Give Back Land After Winning War” by Best WW2 Archives youtube.com/watch?v=GQIHmQ7bAQk
Iran has always been a red herring. Israel-the usual elites, not the rubes-was the economic beneficiary of Lebanon’s troubles. This is why despite manpower issues they went into Lebanon recently.
Israel and the government of Lebanon might take the tack that restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty necessarily includes disarming Hezbollah.
Or selling a chunk of Lebanon to Israel, so that IDF forces currently in “Lebanon” are instantly transported to “Israel” without moving?
It will be interesting to see what effect this climbdown will have on diehard MAGA followers. Is the Market really God for the fans of the likes of Fox audiences? Can even the most slavish lib-haters overlook the clanging cognitive dissonance and denial in Trump’s blase dismissal of his abandonment of the absolutism he was spouting as vindications for his war?
Old saying: Americans vote their pocketbook.
A good bet it will drive yet another wedge into the MAGAt coalition.
The dividing line being the affluent elite neocons (NASCAR crowd) hating it and the masses, who have overwhelmingly been stabbed in the back repeatedly by trump, not caring one whit about Iran and seeing it as an economic rescue of sorts.
Yes, I think this will explode MAGA’s collective head.
First, the main feature of MAGA-tism has always been primarily psychological (We’re #1! Trump is a Winner!), and this “deal” will exceed their capacity for cognitive dissonance. The deal openly acknowledges complete failure of all the stated goals of the war, and even diehard MAGAts won’t be able to deny that.
They will also imagine that the USA might actually pay the $300B in Reparations, forcing the old Tea Party Magats into open rebellion.
IMO, this is the end of the MAGA movement (boo-hoo-hahahaha-yay!), but that isn’t all Good News for Democrats (or the rest of the world). Trump’s Mob was previously the GOP’s Base, and the GOP will be spending a lot of money to regain control of that Mob (and they still hate Democrats, because, Queers & other Bogeypersons)
A Mob like that would also be fertile ground for myth-making, with terrifying parallels to Germany after WWI. Germany attacked France, and they weren’t defeated militarily, but sued for peace to avoid (worsening) economic and social pain at home. That made it easy for militarists – and later, Hitler – to promote the idea that they had been Stabbed in the Back…
“but that isn’t all Good News for Democrats”
Oh yeah, no doubt about that. The zionazi Schumerite DNC crowd will now be deer-in-headlights frozen trying to save their branding from oblivion. Not a bad thing either seeing as how it goes against 80% of the dem base.
Now is the time for the Platnerites to take control of the party and give That Mob an outlet.
I knew it wouldn’t take too long…
https://www.commondreams.org/news/democrats-trump-iran-deal
“Would you rather go back to war?” Matt Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy and a former adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), asked Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), one of several Democrats joining war-hawk Republicans in openly decrying the new memorandum of understanding (MOU).”
It’s the end of the U.S. hegemon as we know it, and I feel fine.
You got me singing along smiling H
Ditto!
For others who would like to sing along, here’s a link.
REM.
A young REM at the old 40 Watt Club! Good times…
Sleboda argues that Iran is pissing away its leverage and that US has skillfully salamisliced this leverage.
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/mou-irans-victory-and-mistake-doa
Pape convincingly refutes that (see video above). Iran’s leverage will only grow over the next 60 days as oil reserves continued to be depleted.
As a counterpoint, very good talk between Nima and Anthony Aguilar discussing why Iran should not seek vengeance despite having the upper hand.
Magnanimity in victory makes Iran more powerful by burnishing its image on the world stage.
Thucydides wrote: “Of all manifestations of power, restraint impresses men the most.”
I think he was talking about Vlachidimo Putinarchos.
I hate to say it even though I would love to see it… Iran would only lose leverage if it launched massive strikes against izzys because of Lebanon. I doubt the US would sit idly by and watch.
Although maybe there’s a secret acknowledgment that Hezbollah can now take the gloves off with Iranian help?
On an unrelated sidenote; I think Kyiv is in for a serious pounding after the latest Ukie drone attacks against civilian targets.
I don’t see why you say that. It’s in the deal. Israel is hated all over the world, per fresh polling data.
But they would strike Israel in Lebanon first, then the site in Israel supporting the Lebanon operation.
Israel is very air force dependent. Take out Ben Gurion and Nevatim.
I see your point, guess I was thinking more along the lines of Tel Aviv (Palantir/U8200 sites).
” Israel is hated all over the world, per fresh polling data.”
– far from as hated as the Zionazis should be. I see zero boycotts. No Zionist has been deported from any country. Not one single business relation has been severed. Defense industry-ties are growing with them
All we read and hear about is the ”growing anti-semitism”.
Sorry, no. They are being run out of my current location, under the cover of running out lots of other foreigners who try to own land and businesses (which you cannot do here) via illegal structures. The Israelis so overdo that (they are far and away the biggest nationality engaged in this behavior despite being far far far from the biggest tourist group) that this is having a disproportionate impact on them (they were also trying to set up Israeli-only enclaves here with the locals DESPISE as a practice).
I was not inclined to believe that the Israelis were the primary and explicit target (albeit kept well under official wraps) when I was first told that by a government-connected source, but the pattern of the crackdowns is consistent with that. And it does get other bad actors out too. Plus bonus points! They get their property seized and go to jail with no bail!
Thailand cracks down on foreign companies using fig leaf of local ownership
Aljazeera
It looks as if YouTube forced this video to be retitled. I sent it around under the original one, “Israel Moved In — And Thailand Has A Lot To Say About It!”:
Paragraph 10 waiving sanctions makes Paragraph 7 ending sanctions more of a formality — immediate relief for Iran… With that, it seems the Iranians are willing to wait on the frozen assets or the reconstruction funds until after the nuclear issue is settled — and if never settled, they collect some serious cash along the way — the longer the negotiations, the more the cash.. highly levered arrangement for them.
Contrary to some pre-disclosure chatter, the frozen assets are clearly not required to be released immediately, but are only going to be released by the US based on the tenor of the 60-day negotiations… though they may have some verbal agreements that are off the books….
Due Dissidence guys recapping the US Zio media meltdown over signing the deal. Guys have fun with the Zio meltdown. / ;)
Israel-First Media MELTS DOWN Over Iran Deal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yUBsm9GNbo
Oh, the wailing and gnashing of teeth – dare I say “kvetching” – is only getting started.
On another note, some of the cope I am seeing from the pro-Israeli, pro-MAGA Facebook posting is “interesting” to say the least. A lot of I don’t agree with him on everything but this is a victory/good deal posts are coming out. I push back gently and some agree and most stick their heads in the sand and NANANANANA. We certainly are living in interesting times…
re: cope, here’s one —
Perhaps it was 11-dimensional chess, for the purpose of breaking the Israeli hold on US policy.
The schadenfraude is sweet, but a wounded scorpion is still dangerous.
May this vile, barbaric s^*#hole of a country destroy itself amid its contradictions.
Will be interesting to see Israel’s revenge on this one, should the deal hold.
I sure hope those Iranian negotiators are watching their backs.
And, right on time, Larry Johnson is reporting on Judge Napolitano that the location in Switzerland for the signing of the accord tomorrow had to be changed because the intelligence services discovered an Israeli plot to assassinate the Iranian delegation:
The relevant part starts at around the 22:40 mark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9DKXdtzKls
The deal was already signed. There is no signing in Switzerland. There is no mention anywhere on Iranian media
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/17/770645/Iran-US-presidents-sign-war-ending-MoU-Geneva-meeting-still-on-track-FM-spox
Pakistan’s president cancelled his trip to Switzerland as a result.
What is happening in Switzerland now is the start of the negotiation.
Larry seems to be getting too much dodgy stuff from Pepe Escobar who will hype any gossip he hears as if it were fact.
Imo they will turn internal, blame Palestinians for their disaster, finish Gaza and then focus on West Bank. Clear Muslims out of Jerusalem.
Col. Macgregor sounds seriously concerned that T may be assassinated. With Mario Nawfal.
TRUMP MAY BE ASSASSINATED – w/ Col. Macgregor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cPpKMMwXdI
“then the draws don’t stop, the SPR keeps bleeding, and the price does the rationing that inventory couldn’t”
Common Sense Investing
@investinguab
What’s Next for Oil
There is no manipulation. There is, instead, strong optimism that a US–Iran deal to reopen Hormuz, a relief rally, and a 17-million-barrel crude draw the optimists are choosing to look straight past. The first two pieces argued oil had to run. This one is about what happens next, and the four questions that decide everything.
I. Start with the number nobody wants to sit with
Before any narrative, look at the actual balance sheet. This is the EIA’s Table 1 for the week ending June 12, 2026. The print that landed the same week the market decided the worst was over.
Fig. 1 — U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, week ending 6/12/2026. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Table 1. Read the year-ago column.
Total crude stocks fell 17.2 million barrels in a single week — commercial crude down 8.3 to 418.2, the SPR down another 8.9 to 340.3. That is among the largest weekly crude draws on record. But the column that should stop you cold is the one on the right: against a year ago, total crude is down roughly 65 million barrels, and the SPR alone is down 62. We have been quietly draining the national tank to keep the commercial number from looking worse than it does.
And yet crude sold off into that print. That is the tell this piece is about. When a near-record draw meets a falling price, the market is not reading the inventory data; it is reading a story. The story arrived right on cue: a US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil dropping to a two-month low, and a relief rally in risk. The thesis writes itself — flows normalize by the fall, inflation was transitory, the worst is behind us.
II. The consensus thesis, stated fairly
Steel-man the trade you’re skeptical of. The EIA’s own June outlook lays it out: with Hormuz assumed shut in the near term, falling inventories keep Brent near $105 in June and July. However, once flows resume and shut-in production returns, the agency expects prices to fall toward an average near $79 in 2027. The EIA believes refining margins normalize. Product builds (gasoline and distillate both rose this week) provide a buffer. The stranded ships sail, the barrels in transit arrive, and the draws stop.
That is a coherent, defensible base case. It is also a model. And every model of this kind shares one quiet assumption: that all of the parties involved will behave normally. Reopen the strait and everyone resumes the prior choreography — producers pump, refiners run, insurers underwrite, tankers transit, consumers consume — as if nothing happened. The models assume the system snaps back to its mean because that is what systems usually do.
III. 1973 was a three-week war and the damage came after
There is a reason I keep coming back to 1973–74. The Yom Kippur War itself lasted about three weeks. The embargo that followed was the headline. But the lasting damage to the oil market and to inflation didn’t come from the shooting or even the embargo announcement. Instead, it came from how many parties were entangled, and how long it took all of them to stand down and resynchronize. The price didn’t settle when the war ended. It settled when the last party decided to act normally again, which took the better part of a year and reset inflation expectations along the way.
The parallel that matters today is not the size of the conflict. It is the number of independent hands on the valve. Catalogue the parties tangled up in the current Iran conflict and the resumption of flows and you get a long list. Iran, the regional Gulf producers whose shipping lanes run through the same chokepoint, the U.S. and its naval posture, the European and Asian refiners scrambling to replace Hormuz volumes, the insurers and reinsurers repricing war risk on every hull, the tanker owners deciding whether the transit is worth it, and China sitting on the demand side as the swing consumer. In 1973, a short war did long damage because too many parties had to agree to calm down at once. Today the cast is at least as large. A slight pinprick: one incident, one insurance repricing, one producer who decides the math no longer works — is enough to tip a market this tightly drawn.
IV. Three scenarios, one inventory clock
Scenario A: flows return to 100%
This is the consensus case, modeled realistically. The stuck ships leave, draws taper for a few weeks as barrels-in-transit arrive, and then modest, sustained builds take over, not a rocket. Commercial crude troughs around 407, claws back across the 400 line, and finishes the year comfortably but unspectacularly in the low-to-mid 410s. That’s what “the worst is behind us” actually looks like: a normalization, not a glut.
Scenario B: flows only half-normalize
The middle ground, and the honest base case. The ships leave and draws halve, but they don’t stop, because not every party comes back at once. Refiners run cautiously, insurance stays expensive, and the SPR keeps quietly bleeding to cover the gap. Commercial crude slides into the yellow zone and finishes the year in the high 360s, with the SPR drained another ~80 million barrels to get there.
Scenario C: nothing changes
The world where the parties can’t get along and draws persist at the current pace. The math gets ugly fast: commercial crude punches through 373, through 325, and ends the year near 300, while the SPR grinds toward an operational floor. Not a forecast. Just what the arithmetic does if this week’s draw is the run-rate rather than the peak. The point is to show how little has to go wrong.
V. Mid-July is where the rubber meets the road
Here is what I actually expect, and it’s closer to the optimists than you might think, for a few weeks anyways. The ships that are stuck will leave. Over the next several weeks to a couple of months, flows should normalize a little. Draws should drop a bit. We may even get a build or two as the in-transit barrels finally land and clear customs. That’s real, and the bulls will take a victory lap on it.
But a build driven by ships exiting a queue is a one-time event, not a trend. Sometime around mid-July is where the rubber meets the road. By then the easy barrels have arrived, and the question stops being “did the backlog clear?” and becomes “do builds continue?” That’s the moment that separates Scenario A from B and C, and it comes down to four questions: the four parties from Section III, restated as things that either happen or don’t.
Check all four boxes and you get Scenario A: builds continue, commercial crude climbs back above 400, and the price of oil drifts toward the EIA’s $79 world. Check two or three and you get Scenario B — a grudging, half-normalized tightening with the SPR paying the difference. Check none and you get Scenario C, where the only thing that resolves the inventory math is a price high enough to ration the barrels. The scenarios are the price forecast. I’m not handing you a number; I’m handing you the boxes and telling you to watch them get checked, or not, in real time.
VI. The tape’s quiet dissent
Now the part I had to correct from my own first draft, because the data deserves more than a silly slogan. The week of June 8–12 was a relief rally: the US–Iran Hormuz deal hit, oil fell to a two-month low, and the all-clear trade fired. In that world the textbook says inflation hedges should get sold and bonds should get bought. Both happened — but look at the magnitudes, because the magnitudes are the message.
Gold did not behave like a hedge being discarded into good news. It rose about 2% on the week, climbing for three straight sessions to an intraday high near $4,377 even as the supposed inflation scare was being defused. Long bonds (TLT) did catch a bid , and crucially TLT did not outpace gold. If the market truly believed the inflation risk was gone, you’d expect the opposite: the inflation hedge dumped hard, the long bond ripping. Instead the hedge outran the bond. That’s not an all-clear. That’s a market buying protection on the very week it was told it no longer needed any.
And the 10-year tells the same story even more plainly. Here is the yield, year-to-date, as of the close:
Fig. 6 — 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, YTD: 4.487%, +0.059 on the session, sitting near its highs for the year. Source: user-supplied broker chart (10-yr yield, 5:05 PM EDT). Cross-reference: CNBC TLT / Treasury yields coverage.
Run the thought experiment. If the world genuinely believed the oil-spike risk was over and inflation was safely transitory, the long end would rally hard and the 10-year would fall. It would not sit at 4.49%, up on the session, pinned near its highs for the entire year. Yes, yields eased intraday on the Iran headline. But “eased a few basis points off the top while still near 4.5%” is not the bond market sounding the all-clear; it’s the bond market refusing to fully exhale. A real all-clear looks like a yield breaking down through its range. This one didn’t.
So the corrected read is sharper than my slogan, not softer: on a pure relief-rally week, gold outpaced bonds, and the 10-year stayed elevated. Two of the deepest, least sentimental markets on earth were handed the perfect excuse to price the all-clear and they declined. The inflation hedge kept bidding. The long end wouldn’t break. That is the tape telling you it isn’t convinced the risk is gone.
Gold outran the bond on a relief-rally week, and the 10-year wouldn’t break. Hold your popcorn — this is just starting.
VII. So where does this leave the barrel?
Exactly where the relay left it. The first piece argued the gold/oil ratio handed the baton to oil. The second argued the supply shock had a player nobody scouted. This third piece is the simplest: there is no manipulation in a near-record draw meeting a falling price: there is only a market that has pre-committed to optimism, and an inventory clock that doesn’t care how anyone feels.
What I expect over the next few weeks is the optimists’ victory lap: ships leave, draws ease, maybe a build or two. Enjoy it; it’s real. But mid-July is the test. If the four boxes get checked, Scenario A is your world (a normalized low-410s, not a glut) the worst really is behind us. If they don’t, if the parties can’t synchronize, if the refineries don’t come back poof, if insurance stays a tax on every barrel, if “transitory” turns out to be the year’s most expensive word: then the draws don’t stop, the SPR keeps bleeding, and the price does the rationing that inventory couldn’t.
And the two markets with the least incentive to flatter the optimists — gold and the long bond — have already filed their dissent. Handed a perfect relief-rally week, gold outran the bond and the 10-year wouldn’t break. They are not pricing the all-clear. Hold your popcorn. This is just starting.
Watch the boxes. Watch mid-July. And watch whether gold keeps outrunning the bond while the 10-year refuses to break — the tape will tell you which scenario you’re living in before the headlines do.
Disclosure & Disclaimer
This is the third piece in a series. Full position disclosure from the prior letters still applies; the author is positioned long the oil complex via BNO and related names and has previously traded the gold and silver complex. The three inventory scenarios are the author’s own forward extrapolations of EIA weekly data, built from the Table 1 print shown above (week ending 6/12/2026) and recent draw rates; they are illustrative behavioral cases, not predictions, and the exact paths depend on assumptions stated in the text. The week-of-6/8 asset chart is indexed to Monday and approximates the actual moves (gold roughly +2% on the week and outpacing a modestly higher TLT) to illustrate the relative signal, not exact returns; verify against your own data. The 10-year yield image is the user-supplied broker chart (4.487%, +0.059, near YTD highs); directional context cross-referenced against CNBC and iShares/BlackRock TLT data for the week. Inventory thresholds (325 / 373 / 400) are the author’s own framing. Nothing here is investment advice — verify all figures against primary EIA and market sources before relying on them. Do your own work, size your own risk.
I suppose another factor is empty ships sailing back into the Gulf to load up on oil with the blessings of their insurers. Unless that happens, then it is not over as no more oil will be flowing direct from the Gulf except fro pipelines.
Thank you for this as well as your previous illuminating observations on the SPR/oil futures.
To overly distill, we only move forward, and that with a fresh set of circumstances and new rules.
One particular opacity to the new paradigm is the general operational condition of the GCC oil production machine. How much crude ex-Iran will the GCC be able to load onto tankers on an average day? What is the timeline for repairs to damaged infrastructure?
I would add a few data points from the week of 12 Jun 2026 “Weekly Petroleum Status Report”.
Crude stocks year on year -7.9% almost all SPR -15.4%. Comm’l -.6% (418 mbbl).
Gasoline* -6.9% y on y
Diesel/Dist* -5.8%
Kerosene* +1.4%
Comm’l Crude imports 5.1 mbbl/day, 2026 cumulative daily Avg 6.2 mbbl/day
Crude inputs to Refineries: 17 mbbl/day (for the week) compared to 2026 cumulative daily average 16.3 mbbl
Since Vance and the lobby will read para one as requiring Iran disarm its brutal terrorist ally in Lebanon. As long as the empire can name terrorists US will meet Lavrov’s accusation about agreement incapable!
I see small chance of Iran keeping the strait open
*I recall thinking 2025 inventory as not very high.
Total us margin debt (finra) surged over 9 months to reach a record high in January, fell 5% over feb/mar, rose to a new record in April, and then jumped 8.5% to 1,415 B in May. Based on current market action I expect a new high this month. About 50% typically unwinds in a market crash.
“The War is Over” ??? Sez who ???
It’s gonna compete with The 30-Years War to be the second longest war
since the 100-Years War…
…….
Remember “The US Mid-Terms” do have some influence over Trump…
I say it started in 1948 so it has already passed the 30 year war.
I have three questions:
What’s happening to the US troops trapped on the ships?
Why does the US not have to pay interest on the frozen Iranian $$?
What will the new US military recruiting posters look like?
All done! If you were an early arrival, please refresh this page and re-skim.
With all of Trump’s insults of Obama and fake news, I think it’s telling that David Sanger reported in the NYT, “But it was Mr. Trump himself who offered what may be the most clear-eyed answer about why he needed to end this war so fast. He didn’t want comparisons to Herbert Hoover, he told reporters…on Wednesday.”
“He was always the one I didn’t want to be,” Mr. Trump said of the 31st president. “I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe.” Later he noted that if the war continued, the world would have begun to run out of oil stockpiles.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, seems to be on Trump’s mind as he now appears unimpressed by Netanyahu and willing to shove him and Israel aside in order to save himself and his legacy from what would assuredly be an epic disaster.
And importantly, during the Cold War everything, whether Vietnam, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, etc., it was all about fighting Russians. Today, it’s terrorism, WMD, or whatever we can concoct followed with running around doing illegal everything: sanctions, freezing assets, assassinations, bombings, invasion etc., without much evidence or proof it served our interests.
The end of the Iran War might just put an end to unconditional support for Israel, as well as much of the violations of int’l law the US has been committing.
yes
The best hope we all have is that Trump’s ego and the real economic collapse threat keeps his spine stiff and he cuts us free from Israel
If not, this all falls apart
Yes. All his explanations seem like cover stories. He got conned by Netanyahu, still can’t admit it. So he (or his staff) cook up high-minded reasons to be the Peace President. He might actually win back some followers if he’d just come out and say ‘I got had by Israel, and we are done letting them influence our nation’.
A different interpretation is that, having swallowed the bitter pill, he is now calmer.
I haven’t noticed any torridly-sequenced pace of crazy, rambling, incoherent or contradictory tweets at three in the morning since he caved. I very unironically think that this is an important indicator
It’s my understanding that Türkiye charges a fee in the Dardanelles Strait? Thus, Iran’s request is not a first.
warontherocks.com/a-strait-comparison-lessons-from-the-dardanelles-for-a-strait-of-hormuz-closure
Not only does it charge a fee, it also monitors who gets to pass.
I think Sanger makes an important economic point. Also, Trump’s “They hurt a little location but they don’t blow up the planet.” quote implies to me that he is backing down from his pro-war stance, or at least his ‘nuke them into the stone ages’ statements — those statements being positions I’ve never quite been able to reconcile with his campaigning promises of ‘no war’. He’s a business guy, and business guys don’t like war, because it’s an external variable they can’t control. Given the extreme hawks elsewhere in the administration and Congress (both parties at fault here), Trump’s general dislike for Gulf State people who don’t grovel and give him money was probably seen as a lever by the hawks to cause some offshore mayhem – distracting USAians from our own structural economic problems. And Trump, who only likes mayhem if he’s at the center of it, got sucked into a situation where he couldn’t show voters that the mayhem was serving his, or USAians, interests. Thus, the quotes that seem like verbal shoulder shrugs. ‘We tried something, didn’t quite work out, we’re backing off.’ (None of this is meant to excuse any of Trump’s actions. He’s still one of several active cancer clusters that will be difficult to clear from the polity.)
“He’s still one of several active cancer clusters that will be difficult to clear from the polity.”
Quite right, I think — but along with Israel, Trump’s MAGA scam has been diagnosed by the public at large. It is now obvious to anyone with a brain and thirty seconds to use it that the real problem is not “big government” but ownership thereof by billionaires and the various species of psychopathic barnacle attached.
I think Trump greatly flatters himself with his fears of being compared with Herbert Hoover. The WIKI page for Hoover notes: “Critical assessments of his presidency by historians and political scientists generally rank him as amongst the worst presidents in American history, although Hoover has received praise for his actions as a humanitarian and public official.” Aside from his fame as the Depression President Hoover is a far cry from Trump. The Great Depression shadowed a long and successful earlier career as a mining engineer, a true Horatio-Alger self-made millionaire, and a gifted and energetic administrator to note just a few of his other attributes and accomplishments. I tend to credit Hoover’s Secretary of the Treasury, Andrew Mellon, for Hoover’s policies in response to the Great Depression.
I believe the contrasts between Trump and Hoover could not be more stark. Whether the u.s. is plunged into a severe financial depression or not, Trump has more than earned his place as the worst President in all the history of the United States. He may find a rank as one of the worst leaders of an empire surpassing some strong competitors who ruled now long dead empires into their ruin.
Roman empire: Nero fiddled while Rome burned
US empire: Trump tweeted while the Straits closed
I attended Hoover High School, and there are many other schools named after him in his home state. I think he was a decent man who got caught up in history’s maw. And it is so ironic that he wasn’t able to see the class differences that mattered while FDR could.
But sending in the Army to crush the Hoover-villes is unforgiveable. I’m not an expert on ol’ Herbert, just my take.
Matt Stoller’s latest Substack talks about how well the economy has held up thus far, relating it directly in part to the SPR. What I found interesting though is the mention that many libertarian and conservative think tanks have lobbied for a long time to do away with the SPR entirely. Got me to wondering if an intended outcome of Trump’s war “strategy” of delay, dodge and manipulate the markets was in service to that goal, and the SPR is going away long term?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-202289982
That’s interesting, I haven’t seen anything about them lobbying for it but it makes sense since they tend to lobby to abolish any sort of government. Do you have any examples of them lobbying for that?
I do not – lobbying was a poor choice of words on my part. Advocating (as in the headline snips Stoller included) is more accurate.
The previous Trump administration wanted to buy oil for the SPR when prices were low due to low Covid demand.
“Senate Democrats took credit for stripping out that money from the Senate bill, unveiled Wednesday, calling it a “bailout” for the oil industry.”
https://rollcall.com/2020/03/25/oil-purchase-to-fill-strategic-reserve-dropped-from-stimulus/
The SPR is not managed strategically, but for political purposes.
Reminds me of Christmas Eve 1914, First World War, No Man’s Land – without
the Fraternizing Enemies…
…or is the World Cup a Christmas stand in? In spite of the visa nonsense that the Iranian team is getting.
The MOU acknowledges the fact that Iran has the World’s economy by the throat.
A number of involved parties are NOT HAPPY with reality and will do what they can to sabotage the deal, which they have the ability to do.
When that happens Iran will yank on the choke chain and the political situation will get…interesting at home (The USA) and abroad.
It’s going to be a lively and very messy Summer.
This is BIG. Trump has, in effect, called out Netanyahu for war crimes! (“A couple of drones down…he didn’t need to bomb buildings in Beirut “) ; he’s recognized Iran’s right to enriched uranium for peaceful use; he says Iran’s missile program isn’t a problem. It’s perfectly normal!
And he didn’t just tiptoe around the frozen funds red line, he vaporized it: “It’s not our money, it’s their money — and we froze it at a certain point in time…I guess we’re going to have to give it back, you know. If we didn’t give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again… ” Which leads to the new, glorious vision of Iran once again joining the global economy, allowing all kinds of money to be made, by everyone.
On top of all that, Trump’s flipped the foundational Iran demonization rhetoric on its head. Iran’s leaders are no longer crazed, theology-obsessed, suicidal maniacs!. No! Now, Trump tells us, Iranians: ” have a new group of leaders that I think is, actually, I think they’re smarter. I think they’re very smart. I think they’re far less radicalized… I think they’re really good. They love their country. ” God bless them!
Of course, he could flip flop on all this at tomorrow. Trump is Trump, we know that. But as it stands, he is making the key opening moves toward a major geopolitical and ideological transformation, and, crucially, he has staked his Presidency and his legacy on it, so walking it back wont’ be easy.
So Much Winning!
The $300 BILLION controlled and directed by the US—
This had e recalling in the book Countdown, by Alan Weisman, about global population growth and resultant catastrophes…
The Iranian National Guard was described by Weisman as an effective all-controlling violent Mafia, controlling infrastructure, “Utility Functions’, etc.
Trump Organization has muscled and insinuated in a comparable way.
Can’t wait to see how well that $300 BILLION directed by “US” goes over.
Trump as anarchist chaos agent. A Very Effective Catalyst!
I wonder what the Ploymarkets are raging about this week?
Thank you so much for all of the coverage, and the commentariat. It is a sort of balm for me.
Couple of points.
This not a “deal” in the sense that one has been discussed over the last few months. It’s best seen as the writing down of terms that Iran is able to enforce on the US, and US recognition of the inevitable. Most of this would have happened anyway. By contrast, I still cannot see any sign of a legally enforceable treaty ever being signed, because I cannot imagine the US Senate ever ratifying such a document. The text contains largely unilateral gestures, mostly by the US, although it is dressed up to look more bilateral, and more like an “agreement” than it really is. It’s also confusingly drafted, probably in a great hurry. The new form of Paragraph 1 is particularly incoherent, and looks as if it was redrafted several times at the last minute.
The problem I drew attention to yesterday– the “allies” point–is actually worse now. The parties “declare” by signing the document the “immediate and permanent termination” of military operations (they obviously have magic wands) although the “permanent termination,” and everything else in the paragraph, won’t actually be “confirmed” until the “final deal.” The parties agree not to “initiate any war” in addition to declaring the permanent termination of military operations or use or threat of force, thus saying the same thing at least twice.
The problem of course is that there is no mention of Israel, and no obligations on that state. You could argue that there is an implied political obligation on the US to pressure Israel to respect what’s in the document, but on that point there is complete silence. It would have been easy enough to add a sentence like “the US undertakes to use its best endeavours to ensure the adherence of its allies to the provisions of this document where applicable,” but they didn’t, and that tells you a lot. As it is, the US appears to be guaranteeing the the territorial integrity of Lebanon , including against Israel, which is … odd. As often, the contorted drafting is probably an attempt to paper over differences at the last minute.
There are several other cases where the US is promising things it cannot deliver. Paragraph 4 commits the UN Security Council and the IAEA to lift sanctions, although I don’t think anyone has consulted them. Since other unspecified bodies are “included” maybe Trump had the EU in mind as well. But apparently the lifting of multilateral sanctions is going to be decided by Iran and the US bilaterally.
Paragraph 8 is a clear victory for the Iranians on the nuclear issue. Read literally, it says that the schedule for the agreeing what to do with the stockpile will run in parallel with the sanctions schedule, but all that will be agreed upon is “a mechanism”, which is apparently different from then”methodology” mentioned later. Thus, on one reading, the mechanism is just a joint committee of some sort, which will agree a “methodology.” The parties agree to discuss enrichment etc. at some point in the future after the “final deal.” This means the problems are kicked into the future, possibly the far future.
Finally, on Paragraph 14, the UNSC resolution, I don’t disagree that this could happen, but of course the two countries by themselves cannot guarantee that it will happen, or even put on the agenda (that depends on internal UN politics). Still less can they guarantee what the resolution will say, except that, of course, the US is one of the P5 and can veto anything it doesn’t like. The Russians and the Chinese have obviously not been consulted: either could decide to be difficult. Come to that, France has the Presidency of the Council in September. Iran is not a member in either 2026 or 2027, but it may be that the Russians will look after their interests. In any event, the whole discussion promises to be complex and explosive, and is likely to lead to a very minimalist Resolution.
The termination of sanctions paragraph (7?) actually reminds me of typical American politics. We haven’t said the UN and IAEA have to remove sanctions. All we (U.S.) have said is that we’ll “undertake” an effort to terminate these sanctions. Kind of like how Democrats “fight for” “access to healthcare” or “a $15 minimum wage”. All we have to do is pretend to lift a finger to satisfy the requirements. If the UN and IAEA don’t agree, then oops, we tried.
“The Russians and the Chinese have obviously not been consulted”
Are we certain that’s true? I recall this from last weekend…
and…
This was probably a briefing to Ambassadors to tell them what was likely to be in the final version. I doubt if the Iranians were after comments or suggestions. They were probably concerned that China and Russia should have the most reliable text available.
Sorry to reply to your long post with something tangential, but do you assign anything to the fact that Trump actually personally signed the MOU? I recall that a few days ago you mentioned that it is unusual for a head of state to do so–is there some fundamental significance to this?
And to address some of your points directly (e.g. “As it is, the US appears to be guaranteeing the the territorial integrity of Lebanon , including against Israel, which is … odd.”) with pure speculation, I am not sure that Trump makes a clear distinction between what is in his purview and what isn’t. Under most circumstances, there is an entire bureaucracy which would tell him, but I think by now it is increasingly clear that he doesn’t listen, or people don’t tell him.
I don’t see how that is possible, but there have been so many examples to suggest this is the case–this is merely the most recent of a long string of them. Again, though, I am drawing conclusions from a very tenuous vantage point.
It’s obviously politically significant, since Heads of State rarely sign agreements at anything less than Treaty level (and to be clear I’m not talking about communiqués, joint statements etc.) But it has no practical significance. I suspect it may reflect Trump’s judgement, or that of those near to him, that this is the only document he is certain to be able to sign with Iran, so he might as well extract the maximum PR value from it. I don’t think we can be confident that the “final” deal will ever be negotiated.
No one ever expected this process to produce a treaty. It is not conceivable that the US could ever enter into a bi-lateral treaty with Iran save at best on something trivial. Ditto Russia. So it not your intent but this framing comes off as a false standard.
I think it is possible that this process ends in some kind of treaty, if not UNSC resolution, for certain practical reasons.
It is unclear how the Strait of Hormuz can re-emerge as reliable and safe port in the absence of some kind of international treaty, like the Montreux Treaty. This would seem to be necessary for the shippers, so that there were clear rules and processes governing transport through the Strait, in order for it to remain commercially viable except as some kind of black market pirate’s cove (stranding a lot of the world’s existing petroleum resources and derivatives).
Second, Iran intends on charging for the benefit of use of the Strait, and paying those charges runs up against US and EU sanctions against Iran, which makes use of the Strait incompatible with complying with Western sanctions regimes. This would require further treatise or formal action by US/EU to adjust sanctions, or it would freeze Western oil and shipping companies out of the Strait of Hormuz economic activity.
Third, any nuclear deal would need to be a treaty and probably involve UNSC resolution. [Politically, Trump needs some kind of nuclear deal to save any face on this fiasco, so that provides motivation, and Iran, who hasn’t sought a bomb, can presumably extract some kind of benefit.]
The why for this happening is the global economic consequences of the Strait closure, and the need to provide the legal framework for making the Strait of Hormuz attractive for shippers and insurers in order to facilitate the flow of goods. Further, the commercial people would surely choose a clear legal regime will clear rules and expectations, even if they are unfavorable, than the existing uncertainty. [Better a road in bad shape than bush-whacking through the jungle.]
No. A treaty requires a 2/3 vote in the Senate.
There is no universe in the next 10 years in which the US Senate approves a non-punitive pact with or about Iran.
Capitulation has been in the cards since week 1. But it’s also been clear that it would take time for the US to accept this reality. I’ve always viewed any agreements, including UNSC resolutions, as part of the process of dragging various interested groups through resolution of cognitive dissonance. The value is in the drafting process rather than any fantasy of enforcement or permanence.
Minds had to change to arrive at this MOU. More will need to change if a final agreement is to reached. The reality of molecule shortages will manifest whether minds adapt or not.
Iran was always going to win, but I had not expected the American defeat to be so complete and humiliating, LOL!
Had to be this way, or USISR would have kept coming back. That’s the logic that required capitulation.
Well, the fat lady has not yet sung – the MOU is only a plan, an intention, a roadmap, a beautiful dream. It’s not the finale by any stretch of the imagination. That could be months or even years in the making.
It is not humiliating – in business terms – to cut one’s losses to avoid going broke: ‘I made a big investment, the investment is going down down down, if I ride it all the way down I could go broke. Better to get out of the losing investment now before I lose any more money.’
That’s not humiliation, that’s common sense. (Which T has shown very little of up until now. / ;)
T’s reference to Herbert Hoover as the man he doesn’t want to be likened to is an encouraging sign that he isn’t completely mentally incapacitated, imo. T seems to have decided not to go for broke here. Good.
I fully agree about cutting losses, but he did it way too late, leading to this humiliation. It was always the wrong decision to start this war in the first place, but it was obvious pretty quickly that it would not have the desired result. So he could have backed out declaring a win after a few days (“We destroyed Iran’s capability to… blah blah blah). Many people would have bought that, and it wouldn’t have been the humiliation that it is now.
There’s something known as letting a contentious political situation ripen to the point where a change can successfully be made. Note the word “successfully.” / ;)
From Breaking Points:
TRUMP’S SHOCKING FLIP: IRAN HAS RIGHT TO SELF DEFENSE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbd2JkpPdH4
I do think there is a there there. He’s throwing the faithful something to hold onto, and they will.
I agree. If we had made this level of effort back in April, maybe we could have prevented a global meltdown. As it stands now, we’re going to see the global economy react like those patients who come back after a heart attack only to die two days later. Certsin processes have been set in motion that cannot now be stopped.
There are approximately 7.2 million Jews living in Israel (including the West Bank).
i keep correcting colleagues: it’s an agenda, not a deal
I am sorry but that is not accurate. The “deal” has specific undertakings, An agenda merely organizes a meeting.
True ’nuff, but can’t an agenda come with preconditions before even being addressed? ;-)
I get your point, but agenda has taken on a much broader meaning these days.
0657 PDT
Israel, Stunned by Trump’s Iran Deal, Sees It as a ‘Catastrophic Capitulation’
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/world/middleeast/israel-iran-deal-reaction-netanyahu.html
How the 14-Point U.S.-Iran MOU Could Reshape Global Supply Chains
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-the-14-point-u-s-iran-mou-could-reshape-global-supply-chains
Trump invokes law to increase weapons production after Iran war depleted US stocks
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/politics/trump-weapons-iran-defense-production-act
re: Trump invokes law to increase weapons production after Iran war depleted US stocks —
China will have some input to contribute there.
I was involved in an attempt to get Defense Production Act priority on a procurement once in my career. We needed to get moved ahead in an industry production cycle. It required Sec Def and Dept of Commerce high level approval. Then a direction to put us ahead could be ordered.
We did not get through the approval.
I doubt they can direct PRC rare earth metals priority.
The republic survived!
If every thing for a scarce missile is priority, nothing is priority.
DPA is a bandaid.
China will have some input to contribute there.
Or, more accurately, WON’T have any input to contribute there. ;-)
Trump can only deliver things that don’t require Senate approval. And a Senate that’s abrogated its oversight and approval responsibilities for most of my adult life will briefly remember them long enough to put the kibosh on anything that can be framed as giving something to Iran.
HuH? Nothing here requires Senate approval. This is not and is not intended to be a treaty.
Trump can finesse the frozen assets release by giving loans against the portion that would otherwise require certifications to Congress.
It isn’t the most solid resolutoni for Iran, but the Administration, all on its own, can issue sanctions waviers as it did for Iranian and Russian oil.
Wait, what happened to the (many) sanctions that Congress established by statute? You think Trump is going to revoke them by Executive Order? I feel pretty sure Congress, including the Senate, are going to hold fast to contending against Iran and supporting Israel for years. I could be wrong about that, given the speed with which public opinion has moved against Israel so far, but Congress is not very responsive to public opinion, and there’s a LOT of money on Israel’s side.
He does not have to revoke them. He can issue waivers, as Bessent did with sales of Iranian oil just a month ago and with Russian oil sanctions.
And go read Congress.gov, as I did. To get out of them on a more durable basis, Congress does not need to revoke them. The Administration needs to make certain certifications. Given the current givens, they would be false…but this administration is not big on truthfulness.
I have also not seen anyone go into these weeds, but any US sanctions that were not pursuant to UN sanctions are illegal. It is over my pay grade to know if the US has entered into treaties which would require the US to respect UN sanctions rules. If so, the Administration could use legislative means to reverse them.
Senate? What is this body you speak of? The one filled with dotards and addled octogenarians?
They’re about as relevant as the Rochester Royals (NBA team from the 1950’s.) Plus, aren’t a lot of the seized Iranian assets in non_US banks (Qatar, UAE, etc.)? … those can be released with the click of a mouse in some air conditioned bank in Dubai.
0705 PDT
Fragmented Trade and the Failure of Sanctioned Oil Isolation
https://thediplomat.com/2026/06/fragmented-trade-and-the-failure-of-sanctioned-oil-isolation/
Hegseth announces review of US troops in Europe, scorns some allies
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hegseth-announces-review-us-troops-europe-scorns-some-allies-2026-06-18/
Irish MEP (former) Mick Wallace says there is ‘more democracy in Iran than in most other countries’ after accepting award in Tehran
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/mick-wallace-says-there-is-more-democracy-in-iran-than-in-most-other-countries-after-accepting-award-in-tehran/a/157400043.html
Swiss lawmakers back two-state Middle East solution
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-democracy/middle-east-the-federal-chambers-emphasise-the-two-state-solution/91608153
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said he was severing “all contact” with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas over what he said were remarks attributed to her comparing Israel to apartheid-era South Africa.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-foreign-minister-severs-contact-with-eu-foreign-policy-chief-2026-06-18/
First tankers cross Strait of Hormuz after Iran deal
https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/us-israel-war-iran/news/first-tankers-cross-strait-hormuz-after-iran-deal-4202041
I have read through all the comments so far and I’m surprised that no one contends that this is simply more market manipulation.
Yes Trump signed yesterday because Juneteenth closes US equity markets on Friday.
They have all today to short the markets.
Markets can be manipulated but you can’t jawbone oil or fertilizer or finished products into existence. Oil analysts have argued that manipulated delays in price discovery hasten the cliff.
I’m not familiar with Israeli symbology but in the photo of Ben Gvir in the twixt above his lapel pin sure looks like a noose. If it is, he’s still deeply in denial about changing political realities.
I believe the pin was a gift to him when Knesset passed the law allowing hanging of Palestinians.
I also believe in the modern history there has been only one other state that had different punishments for ethnic groups written in the law. And it rhymes with the azi ermany…
Portuguese law, as stipulated in the 1954 code for indigenous people, subjects native persons from the colonies to punishments distinct from those meted to (European) citizens.
Thus, a crime which in the penal code entails 16 to 20 years of imprisonment instead results in penal servitude (i.e. forced labour) between 21 years plus 4 months and 26 years plus 8 months, exceptionally extensible to between 32 and 40 years, and exceptionally reducible to 18 years plus 8 months.
It is a noose. They are a publicity stunt to promote the death penalty for Palestinians convicted in front of Israeli kangaroo courts to clear the prison population.
He really is a foul human being.
Oh, it gets better. His wife presented him a birthday cake with a noose decoration at his birthday party. Really. From last month:
Israeli minister’s birthday cake with noose to hang terrorists sparks global outcry
https://worldisraelnews.com/ben-gvirs-birthday-cake-sparks-global-outcry/
In a just world, there would thousands of BenGvir and Smotrichs hanging the breeze like Mussolini.
Yeah, but instead we have kleptocrat-oligarchs accumulating all the wealth and power for themselves and they support the Izzies because it is highly profitable to do so. So instead of getting what they deserve, the perps will be rewarded for their crimes, like Tony Blair, Bush Jr. and the bankster perps of the largest financial crimes in US history, by orders of magnitude. Crime might not pay, but high crimes pay highly. I suspect that the Idiot Emperor, his family and cronies will continue to steal and grift more and more, and no one will be held to account.
The oil cliff is approaching but we already went over the natural gas cliff. European storage injection was supposed to start in May bigly but apparently isn’t happening. Unless Qatar restarts production pronto this winter might be interesting times.
And then there are all the other products that have been talked about for the last coupla months: urea, phosphorus, nitrogen, sulfuric acid, helium, aluminum etc. A cliff-hanger or Wile E. Coyote-style fall off the cliff? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esR_uxKC27o
Oil shock, ongoing natural gas shock, the stuff you mentioned, private equity implosion, AI implosion, and follow-ons all happening more or less simultaneously. More like a black hole and we’re staring at the event horizon.
Unrelated but I love the word bigly, but hate that it’s only again used as a word because of the man himself.
Yeh, Donnie’s singular contribution to a better world.
That and thanking people for their attention to the matter at hand ;-)
I may be being a contrarian here, but I fully believe he was saying “big-league”, not “bigly”. But it is euphonous, plus has the advantage of highlighting the moronicity of Trump.
Wowser (the MOU). It seems likely Iran will have all the leverage the next few months, and if a globalish economic crash does get underway, people will then start to focus much more on who caused it, versus Trump today claiming he did a great thing by preventing it.
I have thought the only reason Trump went along starting the attack on Iran was because Israel showed him the Kompromat they had on him which they would leak if he didn’t. Netanyahu flew personally to D.C way too many times in the runup to make any sense–the last one maybe 10 days before launch, and I remember thinking–what on earth is so important he cant just do it on video link or phone? (the other reason for Trump going along is he probably did think it would be a short affair and a glorious victory).
Israel still has that Kompromat, and I’m sure would use it if needed, so the tension for Trump will be between that and his needing the MOU to succeed in preventing a global crash.
Trump’s acceptance of the MOU implies that Epstein’s Trump Tapes are merely embarrassing (15-17yo girls) and not truly shocking (no 9-yo boys, etc).
Revealing X post by Pape:
Trump is blind to the real chessboard.
Attacking critics while the MOU hands Iran a roadmap to regional primacy.
Iran’s rise + Israel’s decline = seeds for a massive war that chokes off Hormuz and sparks a global crisis.
Stop this catastrophic failure now
https://x.com/ProfessorPape/status/2067584037724586487
The rebuttal comments are scathing.
The follow-up posts to this tweet say Pape is now showing he is a neocon who has been disguising himself in realist clothing.
That is ad hominem and does not invalidate his analysis. I cannot stand black/white thinking, of having to put people in tribes.
And I don’t buy it. Pape was openly admiring of Iran. No neocon could react that way. This is not at all how he comported himself on MANY MANY MANY recent podcasts where he has spoken at great length.
He is telling Trump not to dig his hole deeper as he routinely does. Recall that he advised Obama. This may be a bit of TDS showing itself. Or maybe he got some people at Chicago pissed off with his analysis and is doing some self-protective flag-waving.
I think the time has come for the US to call it a day on the “sponsor of terrorism” canard.
This has been a bedrock multipurpose justification for the US ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall, when “sponsor of Communism” became untenable. However, a country that manufactures more than half of all weapons on Earth and has been widely and openly supporting regime change efforts, not to mention terrorist israel, for decades is definitely the major sponsor of terrorism. No one else comes close.
It will be interesting to see what happens to this charge against Iran as to the MOU negotiations continue. I’m sure there is something else they can sponsor going forward!
Not to mention support for various offshoots of al Qaeda, which conducted terrorist attacks on US itself!
So is Volodymyr Zelenskyy next?!
Putin and Russia have much to learn from Iran. (Know yourself).
Israel is not a party to the MOU.
Does this mean that Iran can still continue to carry out operations against Israel going forward? Iran is well positioned to continue to attack critical infrastructure inside Israel, notably including desalinization plants and shipping ports, the loss of which would make life inside Israel impossible.
Perhaps the onus shifted on Wednesday from the US to Iran when it comes to keeping Israel in line. I think there are a lot of people and countries that would welcome that, since Trump has been a complete failure in this regard.
Well, all you can say is that Iran has made no public commitment to stop attacking Israel as part of the MoU.
Yes and the Israelis are saying that they will not withdraw from Lebanon.
Also, Hegseth threatened more military attacks on Iran. So much for the MoU. The levels of incompetence, perfidy, corruption, ignorance and downright buffoonery cannot be overstated here, but then again: the current US “administration” is a more honest reflection of Ugly American foreign policy.
Be interesting to see the US reaction to any attacks by Iran against IDF forces in Lebanon.
Iran, as in Araghchi himself, explicitly said Israel needed to withdraw from Lebanon in very forceful terms in the past week, as in that was a key requirement.
Marandi just said on Judge Nap that Iran had readied a strike in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon after the signing of the MOU but held off for now, I infer to yell at Trump first.
I wonder what a super el nino does to razor tight oil margins? Answer it probably amplifies them in the Gulf and definitely and massively in the east pacific, lessens in the atlantic.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/nasa-satellites-confirm-gulf-is-hottest-in-50-years-disaster-warning-issued/vi-AA256FrZ#details
no tanker=no oil
Jack Prandelli
@jackprandelli
·
8h
PetroChina couldn’t find a tanker.
Neither could Indian Oil.
Here’s what actually happened this week:
PetroChina tried to hire a Very Large Crude Carrier a ship that holds 2 million barrels to load Iraqi crude between June 25-30.
Got 6 offers.
All at freight rates nearly triple pre war levels.
Still couldn’t close a deal.
Why?
In PetroChina’s own words:
“There are tankers available, but the problem is it’s too expensive and there is no guarantee you can exit the strait.”
Indian Oil ran a tender for the same period.
Received zero offers.
Sinochem is still hunting.
PetroChina, Indian Oil, and Sinochem are 3 of the largest state oil companies on earth.
If they can’t get tankers through Hormuz at any reasonable price, nobody can.
This is the gap between the headline and the reality.
Financial markets priced the peace deal.
Shipping markets priced the risk.
Freight rates 3x pre-war.
Insurance clauses requiring special Hormuz guarantees. No assurance a loaded 2-million-barrel ship can exit safely.
That is already in the post.
This MOU will never result in anything except to get the oil flowing for a while.
The 300 billion will be offered as a loan. That loan will be conditionally offered only if it is secured by Iranian oil fields. Construction will be mandated to be done by Western firms at exorbitant prices.
The exit of US military from the area will be limited to those troops that were part of the build up to the invasion. The naval bases will stay and the air bases will stay.
The ceasefire will be leaky as a sieve.
Israel will increase attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
The US and Israel will step up covert activities in Iran including the funding of proxies and maybe even (deniable) assassinations.
The US will pressure Britain or France (or both) to veto any sanctions relief in the Security Council.
And so on and so on.
The only good thing is that the MOU itself is an international humiliation of the Neocons.
No, Iran is quite prepared to close the Strait. Go listen to Pape. He even says Iran has gotten better at playing this game over time. They can destroy the global economy, which VERY much limits US and Israel wriggle room.
A fund is not a loan. Iran did not agree to borrow. The Iranians are not dopes. You posit that they are.
Gaza is not part of the deal. Lebanon is. Professor Maradi said a few hours ago that Iran had ALREADY readied a strike on Israel over its continuing attacks, but I presume held off to tell Trump, so as a matter of form, he can be permitted to try to get Israel to behave before Iran disicplines them.
This seems to be the initial gambit, to hold off the start of the talks:
Mr. Market will not like it if talks in Switzerland do not start or are halted early over Lebanon (they were set to go for 3 days)
Oh, I don’t think that the Iranians are dopes at all.
I think that they fully anticipate that when the terms are “fleshed out” that the United States will say that “fund” meant “loan.” The Webster dictionary defines fund as “a sum of money or other resources whose principal or interest is set apart for a specific objective.” It says nothing about the money being given or loaned. It is just an amount set aside for a particular purpose.
So the US will claim that a loan is a fund “set apart for a specific objective.”
Of course, that would violate the actual spirit of the agreement. Would it be stupid for the US to effectively renege on the spirit of the deal with this type of tomfoolery?
Of course, but starting the war was staggeringly stupid in the first place. The closing of the strait of Hormuz was completely predictable with devastating consequences – but Trump did it anyway. So the fact that a move is staggeringly stupid does not mean that the US won’t do it.
And if there is one thing I have learned from a lifetime of following American foreign policy it is this.
Serial stupidity is the State Department’s stock in trade. From Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan to Libya to Syria to Iran. It was stupidity all the way.
So the US will try to renege by interpreting the MOU out of existence. I am sure the Iranians know that full well. I am sure that they knew it from the beginning. They’ll use the next 60 days to prepare for the next round of conflict and, when the time comes, they’ll close the strait again – and all hell will break loose.
Just wait and watch.
>when the time comes, they’ll close the strait again
It has to be opened in the first place before it can be closed again!
Well, that didn’t take long. Reuters reports loans and credit lines and financing:
Prof Marandi said today on Judge Napolitano that Gaza is part of the deal. Not mentioned explicitly in the MOU because Lebanon is right now the most dangerous situation. But the issue will be part of the negotiations envisioned by the MOU. At around the 12th minute.
https://www.youtube.com/live/hBhlsDw2Fmw?si=g5ZOfhzPfr-aNSpg&t=724
Yes, I can’t imagine Iran abandoning Gaza – especially when they hold the upper hand.
Jeremy Scahill talked at length about Gaza with the negotiators.
1. Textually Gaza is NOT in the deal.
2. The negotiators said Iran wanted to include Gaza and the West Bank but the many many UN actions made an intervention difficult from a legal vantage.
Very smart of the Iranians to make this decision before Friday afternoon. Apparently they’ve learned about our market manipulations over the past several months.
So a MoU signed at Versailles, follow by…. wait for it…. Isr hawks saying America has stabbed them in the back. ( History may not repeat but it rhymes sometimes. / ;)
From The New Yorker magazine, paywalled.
The Israeli Ultra-Hawks Who Feel Betrayed by Trump’s Iran Deal
Shimon Riklin, an anchor on the country’s right-wing Channel 14, and a Netanyahu ally, thinks America stabbed Israel in the back.
-By Isaac Chotiner
June 17, 2026
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-israeli-ultra-hawks-who-feel-betrayed-by-trumps-iran-deal
adding: if you open the above link in a new tab or new window you might get the entire article without a paywall. The thinking is really something….
Max Bluementhal and Judge Napolitano.
Max Blumenthal : Israel In Panic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqGpIngzUis
Reality imposes itself on the illogic of Isr political thinking.
What US needs is a Church Amendment prohibiting any money US government money spent to support Israel outside food and medicine!
Or something forcing those who want to fund this insanity to go over there and fight. The current sickness is because those who are pushing for war never have to suffer the consequences of their decisions.
I wonder how big the beer halls in Tel Aviv are….
That was a great interview, just keeping him talking and he spills the beans. Some quotes:
– I can tell you that I speak with people of a very high rank in Israeli defense, and they speak of a seventy- or eighty-per-cent chance to replace the Iranian regime if Trump allows the militias from Iraq to invade Iran.
[…]
– They promised us that there would be emigration from Gaza. What happened to this?
– Who promised that?
– Trump. And Netanyahu.
[…]
– What do you think Netanyahu will do now with an election coming up?
– I think he is in shock. In shock. In all the years that I have known him, he has never been in shock like now. Not with Obama. No one has caused a shock like Trump. And it’s because you couldn’t predict it.
– The unpredictable nature of Trump turning on you is what makes it so sad.
– True. You are right. In a few months, we have an election, and one of the most important parts of his campaign was going to be his friendship with Trump. Now what is he going to say? It’s a problem.
I never imagined that I would agree with Israel’s Ben-Gvir, but here we are:
‘Can’t kill your way out of every problem’: JD Vance spars with Ben-Gvir, Smotrich over Iran deal
‘What is your exact proposal?’ Vance asked in an interview with the New York Times • ‘Can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have,’ US VP says…
Ben-Gvir responded to Vance’s comments by saying that the plan is “to deal with the Nazis of the 21st century, just as the United States dealt with the Nazis of the 20th century.
We might disagree on who the Nazis of the 21st century are, however.
LOL. Benji Gvir, what a kidder.
I think what we’re currently experiencing then is what happens when the West fights Germany without the Russians? Operation Bibirossa has been a tremendous failure. Even worse, it never could have succeeded. So now we have a now status quo that is much worse for Israel and the neocons than we had on February 27. Israel was too greedy and now it has lost most of what it built over the last 8 years.
Perhaps what we’re seeing now from the VP and others is what they said behind closed doors before this mess started.
1345
Manic Trump, 80, Lashes Out at Everyone Trashing His Surrender in 4:32 A.M. Meltdown | The president’s long-awaited memorandum of understanding with Iran has come in for criticism from all sides.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/manic-trump-80-fumes-at-fools-trashing-his-deal-in-432-am-meltdown/
Iran’s Khamenei approves deal, says Trump acted out of ‘desperation’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/irans-khamenei-approves-deal-says-185725223.html
Iran delegation suspends Switzerland trip over Lebanon attacks – Al Mayadeen
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606189569
Iran announces plans to bring in maritime fees for strait of Hormuz
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/18/iran-announces-plans-to-bring-in-maritime-fees-for-strait-of-hormuz
US military lifts Strait of Hormuz naval blockade after Iran MOU signed
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5930649-iran-us-mou-ends-blockade/
From Jimmy Dore.
Israel Mouthpiece Predicts FALSE FLAG ATTACK In U.S. To Kill Peace Deal!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vlix1UrPAcA
Well isn’t that special. / ;)
Re: false flags & the Doug MacGregor “Trump assassination” thing in another comment:
Where’s the benefit to Israel?
It would be transparently them behind it. Iran has nothing to gain from attacking the US, it wouldn’t stand up. It’d be Epstein suicide obvious.
Even if it incensed America back to war-like fury, it wouldn’t change the chess pieces in the Gulf meaning Iran would still be in control there.
If Trump gets whacked you get Vance and you’re still no closer to blocking the deal, or advancing Israeli interests. The Vance faction never wanted this war in the first place.
1400 PDT
Germany Says Turkish Intel Among Most Active Espionage Actors in Berlin, operating alongside Russia, China, and Iran
https://clashreport.com/world/articles/germany-says-turkish-intel-among-most-active-espionage-actors-in-berlin-m59uqwpvq6
Trump told Erdogan he is attending Nato’s Ankara summit ‘just for him’
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/trump-told-erdogan-he-attending-nato-summit-just-him
Vance says U.S. isn’t giving Iran ‘a cent’ as he defends Trump peace deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/vance-iran-war-memo-oil-gas.html
Trump Unclear Whether He Will Support Netanyahu In Next Israel Vote
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-unclear-whether-support-netanyahu-171134955.html
Macron clinches unexpected G7 coup, winning Trump over on Ukraine
https://english.nv.ua/nation/g7-breakthrough-how-macron-turned-the-tide-to-win-over-trump-on-ukraine-support-50617377.html
Vance says 12.5 million barrels oil moved as Iran deal enters 60-day phase
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/vance-says-12-5-million-barrels-moved-as-iran-deal-enters-60-day-phase/articleshow/131835553.cms
Israel issues new Lebanon occupation map, in talks with US over deployment
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-talks-with-us-over-continuing-its-lebanon-troop-deployment-officials-say-2026-06-18/
I think Trump has a path through the MOU to energizing and exciting his MAGA base, and winning back some of those who abandoned him, provided he really does make it stick, which requires ending our current relationship with Israel.
The path runs like this:
The Iran War was a really bad idea; we did it because Israel lied to us; every time we tried to do something reasonable, Israel interfered and made it worse; Israel is so ungrateful to us, we are their only friend; we are their only friend because they are terrible, everyone else hates them; Israel has had too much influence over the US for too long, *I* put a stop to it–I put America first. Yes, Iran is better off now in some ways than it was, but that’s all Israel’s fault. No, I’m not anti-semitic, getting fed up with Israeli policy isn’t anti-semitic.
I think if Trump really does cut the U.S. off from Israel, he will win many friends in the broad electorate, Israel is deeply unpopular among most normies. They may not vote R in the mid-terms as a thank you, but his personal polling will improve, and that plus a path toward lower prices b/c the strait is open will make Trump happy. And some of his people who were discouraged enough not to vote may turn out instead, which would help the Rs in the midterms.
That is, Trump could demonize Israel, shifting all the blame to them, fire Hegseth and perhaps Rubio, and end up looking pretty good to his fans (so long as the strait stays open, the oil flows, and the economy looks protected from the worst.) I think he might do it. No other US president would, and if he does it, I’d be grateful.
I’m not predicting, precisely, the situation is as overly dynamic as ever, but I see it as a real possibility.
On another note
In a real way, Trump doesn’t care about the midterms. He’s not an ideological guy; he worked pretty well with the Democrat majority he got in 2018, loved signing the checks that Congress sent out, was fine with increasing the child tax credit (that Biden let expire).
Many of the people around Trump do have ideological agendas, and they’ve surely warned him that he will again be a law fare target if the D’s control Congress, and yes Trump’s redistricting and SAVE Act stuff is to try to keep Congress R, but if the Congress goes D and sends Trump bills he can sign that he thinks make him look good to the masses (tax the rich, feed the poor included) he’ll sign them, and like signing the Covid checks, do it in a way that maximizes his image.
To be clear
I would be grateful if he cuts us off from Israel
Not grateful for the tactics
Interesting
The US Ministry of Propaganda is trying to spin US (Unconditional Surrender) Trump’s MOU into something it isn’t. The People of the US will consider strategic defeat a win if gas prices, inflation, & interest rates go down. It’s not inconcievable to believe that Trump would sell his family down the road if the perception of his holy highness was at stake So is Bib kith or kin or…? It took Trump a 100 days to figure out the impact of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Will he completely comprehend his MOU by October? In the simplest of terms, If Iran goes up, then Israel goes down. Now what happens to the US neocons and Israel Firsters? Will they sit quietly by? Will Trump’s map of the world have to be redrawn?
Iranian negotiators have reportedly suspended plans to attend the next round of talks in Switzerland because of ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, throwing the new MOU into doubt just as it enters into force….
The timing of the pause in talks could not be worse for shipping: the first signs of large-scale movement in the Strait of Hormuz just began on Thursday with a small exodus of vessels that had been trapped inside the Arabian Gulf. If Iran suspends talks on the MOU, the future of Hormuz maritime security could be substantially less certain.
What does an “open” Strait look like?
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: (via Mid-East Spectator Telegram)
‘In implementation of Paragraph 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, commercial vessels requesting passage through the Strait of Hormuz must submit their application to the Persian Gulf Strait Administration (PGSA).
Pursuant to the MoU, no fees will be charged from applicants for a period of sixty days, and these fees will be covered by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Accordingly, the Persian Gulf Strait Administration has been instructed to process and respond to applications with speed and priority in order to achieve the objectives of the MoU.
Given the specific conditions and the existence of some safety hazards on the passage route, and due to the need to ensure safe traffic and prevent maritime accidents, it is necessary for vessels to pass on the route and time announced by the PGSA so that the amount of traffic gradually increases.
The implementation arrangements and technical details of passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be announced soon through the Persian Gulf Strait Administration.
Regarding other issues, including mine clearance, necessary measures will be taken in accordance with Paragraph 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.’
I think we’ll be hearing ‘PGSA’ often in the coming months.
Larry Johnson: “ENOUGH!” – Vice President JD Vance SLAMS Netanyahu’s Government in Heated Rant Dialogue Works
Theme: U.S. stepping away from Israel. Includes footage not only of J.D. Vance’s recent dressing down of Israel but at 11 minutes Hillary Clinton complaining about incessant pressure on her from Israel to attack Iran during her stint as Secretary of State.
That Vance clip is 🔥
Machine-gen transcript:
I saw the Axios report, you know, that Netanyahu is fuming. That’s not reflective of the conversations that I’ve had with him, but maybe he’s saying something to somebody else that he’s not saying to me. What I will say, and this does bother me, is that you have seen people within Bibi’s cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal and in some ways very personally attacked the president of the United States. And I guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world. And the second message I would give to some of those cabinet members, Bibi, to his credit, has not gone down this path, but to some of these cabinet members in Israel who are attacking the president of the United States, the other thing that I would say is that over the last 3 months, >> [clears throat] >> 2/3 of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars. The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump. And anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in. Thank you all.
I think that the reason that Trump made this sudden decision is because his military commanders told him that they were pulling out. Period. That they could no longer sustain being forward deployed.
This seems apparent given recent reports that the military is already starting to pull out.
no longer sustain being forward deployed
ty that is what I was thinking for sometime (dad was Navy Air WWII) how long can they keep up ready to go!
Well, we know that timing-wise, the Trump decision came right as Iran announced it was preparing to strike Israel.
So there’s technically several possibilities.
– The Pentagon said we don’t have the resources to defend Israel and/or engage in retaliatory strikes.
– Something “very valuable” in Israel was conceivably under threat, and I note that only 1-2 days prior Iran started making noises about Musk’s Starlink facilities being legitimate military targets.
– Someone (e.g. from the oil industry) must have finally gotten through on the “oil cliff” concept, and we know that oil executives have been banging on the door for days prior to.
– Random randomness.
Honestly, I am not sure we will ever have the full account, though we might eventually get a “Bob Woodward” version. Either way, the trick now is in not blowing up the MoU and actually getting from here to there…
Very impressed that someone in Trump’s speechwriting staff inserted the word “bedlam” into his mouth!! Impressive. Bret Weinstein had a very good line, “Trump signed the Treaty of Versailles”, exactly. Nobody told him about the last one? Not Macron? The Israeli state is a Rabid Dog. Will Trump fold? I hope not. The first good thing he’s done in years, since not starting a full-on war during his first term. Otherwise his admin just a pile of fascist shit.
1700 PDT
In Brussels, Hegseth Announces Review of U.S. Troops in Europe and Scolds NATO Allies Over ‘Shameful’ Response to Iran War
https://time.com/article/2026/06/18/hegseth-us-troops-europe-review-nato-allies-criticism-iran-war/
Flu outbreak among Air Force recruits at Joint Base San Antonio after Hegseth ends mandatory flu vaccine
https://abcnews.com/Health/flu-outbreak-air-force-recruits-joint-base-san/story
Federal regulators order grid operators to speed power to energy-hungry AI data centers
https://apnews.com/article/power-electricity-ai-plants-data-centers-grid-506e3d206871111f15c3c62fc5368be5
Trump’s Filthy Bedroom Habits Exposed in Bombshell Book
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-nasty-bedroom-habits-exposed/
Iran Has Humiliated Trump
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/iran-trump-war-defeat-deal/687595/
Trump has signed the worst deal in US history
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trumps-signed-worst-deal-in-us-history-4486332
Vance: Israeli critics of Trump need to ‘wake up’ to their situation, he’s ‘only head of state’ who still likes Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/vance-trump-only-head-of-state-who-still-likes-israel-israeli-critics-of-deal-need-to-wake-up-to-their-situation/
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei:
‘O passionate and loyal nation of Iran! As you have been informed, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Presidents of Iran and the United States.
In the path to reaching this stage, the responsible officials, out of concern and with good intentions, made many efforts, and indeed it was this American President who, out of desperation, used various levers to achieve this matter.
I, in principle, had a different opinion. But due to the commitment that the honorable President, as the head of the Supreme National Security Council, gave on behalf of himself and other members to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front, and because he explicitly accepted responsibility for it, I issued permission for it.
They also explicitly stated that if the American side tries to make excessive demands, they will not accept them.
From this moment on, we, meaning you, the proud nation, and this humble servant, will wait for the realization of the stated conditions.
However, it is obvious that the face-to-face negotiations that will be held in the future will not mean accepting the enemy’s view. We hope that the good prayers of our Master, may God hasten his noble reappearance, will bring various victories and triumphs to the honorable nation of Iran.‘
—-
So it’s Pezeshkian’s head on the block. It occurs to me we don’t know much about the power dynamics inside the Iranian state post-Ramadam War. The Supreme Leader must be less powerful than his Dad. And the IRGC must have got stronger. The diplomats have also done pretty well so far.
—
Pezeshkian: The message of the Revolutionary Leader is a roadmap for protecting national interests in the negotiations; we consider ourselves committed to implementing his concerns and guidelines
🔹The Supreme Leader’s enlightening and clear message to the passionate and loyal Iranian nation explained the responsibilities of all the effective components in the upcoming negotiation process. His Highness’s gracious attention to the compassionate efforts and goodwill of the authorities and the issuance of permission to begin negotiations in order to gain benefits for the Iranian nation are the reasons for the satisfaction and contentment of all the servants of the Iranian nation.
🔹Obviously, as President and Chairman of the National Security Council, I, along with other members of this council, consider ourselves committed to paying maximum attention to the concerns of His Majesty and protecting the rights of the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front.
🔹Undoubtedly, the red line of those responsible is national interests and the protection of the dignity, honor, and authority of the Iranian nation. With the negotiating team’s maximum attention to the details of the negotiations and confident hope in God’s grace and mercy, a great victory will be achieved. God willing
—
And the less enthusiastic diplomat (per somewhere I forget) Ghalibaf also replies.
Qalibaf’s message to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution: We will make your orders our goal
🔹Speaker of the House: We thank you for your enlightening and wise message. This message was a roadmap that made it clearer than ever before that with the finalization of this memorandum of understanding, we have just reached the beginning of a difficult and winding path that requires us to reclaim the rights of the Iranian nation and the resistance from the treacherous enemy. This message and the announcement of expectation for the fulfillment of the conditions set forth in the memorandum of understanding have filled our hands even more to follow up on America’s commitments.
🔹We take these orders of Your Excellency as our goal and will not allow the other side to undermine the rights of the Iranian people and the Resistance Front through breach of promise and bullying. Based on the teachings of the Husseini school and the life of our martyred Imam, I believe that the monotheistic front can never make peace with the false front, and it is the duty of all of us to stand against the false front, and in this path, we consider diplomacy to be one of the fields of struggle for resistance.
🔹Our guarantee for the realization of this memorandum of understanding is not its clauses, but our lives, which we have taken in our hands, and the power of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which the American-Zionist enemy fully understood in the recent war its blows and determination. As we have shown in the past negotiations, we are steadfast in fulfilling the conditions and red lines set and in achieving the interests of the Iranian people. For us, negotiation is the path of struggle to obtain the rights of the Iranian people, and in this path, if the enemy seeks to be excessive, we have proven that our hand is on the trigger and we have no hesitation in giving a crushing response to the enemy, which we have tasted in the recent war.
🔹In conclusion, I thank you for clarifying how to continue the dangerous and complex path of negotiations, and I hope that this message will unite and integrate all members of society against the enemy to fulfill the conditions stated in the understanding.
Edit: forgot links. Supreme Leader is from English on MidEast Spectator Telegram. The replies are browser translated from Farsi on FARS Telegram.
1840 PDT
Iran-US Negotiations Collapse Before They Begin as Lebanon Strikes Spark Diplomatic Crisis
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-halts-us-negotiations-lebanon-strikes-1803651
Korea opts out of G7 leaders’ supply chain declaration as Lee balances China ties
https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/korea-opts-out-of-g7-leaders-supply-chain-declaration-as-lee-balances-china-ties/12729978
Cuba’s Communist Party approves opening economy in unprecedented move
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/cubas-communist-party-approves-opening-economy-in-unprecedented-move
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-cancels-swiss-trip-due-to-israeli-attacks-on-lebanon–s
Looks like this sucker might be going down—hardly a shocker. Taco will have to hit Netanyahu harder if he wants to save his reputation.
JustDario
@DarioCpx
·
Jun 17
Traders haven’t realised yet that Cushing tank bottoms were reached LAST WEEK, and we are now already beyond that threshold – I believe they will realise soon when they won’t find enough oil to settle their future contracts and the panic in the market kicks off
Quote
JustDario
@DarioCpx
·
Jun 17
Because trading algorithms are hard-wired to headlines, especially to anything Trump says, the whole market is max short right when the crude oil supply crunch is about to bite. These types of market dislocations don’t correct gently, but abruptly. Be ready for the unthinkable. x.com/DarioCpx/statu…