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Iran War: US Attempts Project Freedom 2.0 as Israel Continues Attacks in Lebanon Despite Alleged Ceasefire; Iran Economy Not Harmed by Sanctions, Performed on a Par to Saudis; Rice Prices Jump in Asia

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[Today’s Iran war update launched essential complete. Any updates will come at 9:00 AM EDT because I have to go out and my return time is uncertain. If you arrived early, please check comments to see when I have announced an update in comments and refresh your page then]

After CENTCOM tried claiming that latest Iranian retaliatory strikes, in response to attacks on Qshem Island and other targets were only a scratch, enough evidence to the contrary has accumulated to show that Iran did real damage to the Kuwait Airport and the US Fifth Fleet operations in Bahrain. It appears that the escalation by the US was intended to tax Iran over time and Iran is having none of that, with its fierce retaliation reportedly taking the US by surprise.

In the meantime, Israel is sabotaging any peace deal, as expected, by continuing attacks in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank. Trump barking at Netanyahu has not deterred Israel.

But it also appears that the US was misled by Israel even more severely than believed. Former adviser to the UAE, Steve Hank, argues that purchasing power parity GDP data shows that Iran and the Saudis were the best economic performers in the Gulf area post the 2008 crisis, and grew at nearly the same rate despite Iran having been under sanctions. So the idea that Iran was on the verge of collapse was a canard.

As we will soon discuss, an important new article in Bloomberg describes how the US has not given up on trying to “open” the Strait of Hormuz, and is attempting to create a more-or-less secure corridor along the Oman Coast.

In addition, even though Iran close-to-official channels had maintained that Iran had stopped sending messages to the US, more and more well-connected sources are saying that communications continued. I am not in a position to adjudicate this question. One way to square this circle is if Iran did halt its official written messages about the memorandum of understanding draft, but was still exchanging information via other channels.1

Finally, we will turn to yet more signs of economic stress, with the Asia picture already looking grim. And just as egg prices jumped up during Covid due to a big culling of flocks due to an unrelated factor, avian flu, so too are beef prices in the US at risk of big rises thanks to screwworm.

Briefly, to kinetic updates first. The Hindustan Times segment below gives a sense of the damage to the Kuwait Airport and says Iran may also have hit a US destroyer, which is big if true:

Another report. Note that “targeted” does not mean “hit”:

NO1 contends the damage was considerable:

  • Kuwait airport T1 destroyed, US bases hit. Iranian missiles/drones struck Kuwait International Airport Terminal 1 — 1 killed, 63+ injured, airport shut for months (MilitarySummary, zerohedge, Lord Bebo). Satellite imagery confirms hangar/warehouse destruction at Ali Al Salem and Camp Buehring (MenchOsint, AMK Mapping). HIGH.
  • CENTCOM caught reversing itself. After claiming 100% interception of the Kuwait attack, CENTCOM then accused Iran of a deliberate airport hit — the contradiction was flagged by many (MenchOsint, Daniel Davis, imetatronink). Iran’s IRGC counter-claims the terminal was wrecked by a failed US Patriot. HIGH on the contradiction; attribution of cause unresolved.

In keeping, Trita Parsi argues in a long tweet that the US was not prepared for the intensity of Iran’s kinetic response to the latest US escalation:

Over the past eight or so days, the US has targeted Iranian vessels as well as targets on the Iranian mainland. This included non-Iranian oil vessels. In essence, this was the US seeking to escalate the blockade of the blockade.

At first, Iran’s response was proportional. The US could tolerate that response.

In fact, it was beneficial to the US to continue the exchange of blows but keep them relatively limited, as it would slowly but surely erode Iran’s deterrence without imposing intolerable costs on the US.

But yesterday, Iran moved to change that equation.

After the US struck a Botswana-flagged tanker as part of Trump’s blockade, the Iranians counter-escalated disproportionally.

Tehran struck Kuwait International Airport as well as a US base in Kuwait, Ali Al-Salem.

It struck the 5th Fleet facilities in Bahrain. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck Jordan. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck northern Iraq. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck the UAE. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It was a demonstration – and reminder – that Tehran retains escalation dominance.

Whereas the US is comfortable with either a possible deal or a low-level exchange of fire, but not a return to full-scale war, Tehran is comfortable with a possible deal or a full-scale war, but not with a low-level exchange of fire that erodes Iran’s deterrence and allows for Trump’s “blockade of the blockade” to become effective.

The area where both can actually be comfortable is some sort of a deal. Reaching it, however, is a different story.

Predictably, the ceasefire in Lebanon is not holding. Israel has never respected one save to take a short breather for its own purposes. From Aljazeera’s live feed:

Iran keeps up its trolling game:

Several wounded in Israeli strike after agreeing to Lebanon truce

Several people have been wounded in an Israeli drone attack that targeted a vehicle on the Zefta-Kfarwa road in southern Lebanon, the National News Agency reports.

The strike came after Israel’s and Lebanon’s governments agreed to halt the war after a series of meetings in Washington, DC, mediated by US officials.

It remains unclear whether Hezbollah, which condemned the peace talks, will agree to withdraw from the region south of the Litani River as demanded by Israel.

Even high-profile American media figures are calling out the Israel ceasefire abuses:

And on top of that, again from the Aljazeera live feed:

Israel threatens to strike Beirut if Hezbollah attacks

Defence Minister Israel Katz says a ceasefire with Lebanon grants the military the “freedom” to strike the capital Beirut if Hezbollah attacks Israeli communities.

“The [army] will, at this stage, continue its fire and ground operations, remain in the security zone in Lebanon up to the yellow line – including in the Beaufort area – and without the return of the population, while continuing to dismantle terrorist infrastructure on the ground,” Katz said in a statement.

Israeli forces retain the “freedom of action, with American backing, to strike in Beirut in response to fire on Israeli communities and territory”, he added.

Similarly:

And remember that even if a ceasefire were to hold in Lebanon, that does not meet Iran’s demands Iran has also called for an end to Israel operations in Gaza and the West Bank.

Steve Hanke,2 in a new talk with Mario Nawfal, not only makes a point that can’t be stated often enough, that Israel can and will wreck any “deal” but that the idea that Iran is an economic basket case is an Israeli fabrication. Parsed correctly, the data shows Iran was still growing under the sanctions, and on a par with most Gulf states:

From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:

Nawfal: But why do you not think Trump could rein in Netanyahu as he did in the last couple of days and ensure that he does not sabotage the Iran war?

Hanke: Well, he hasn’t reined him in.

You think they’re reined in? Well, look at what’s going on in Lebanon. You have to lookat what’s going on in Lebanon and and every day, you know, everybody’s forgotten about Gaza, but there’s a drip drip every day. Every every day there, you know, half a dozen murders in Gaza.

On the prospects for Strait of Hormuz traffic:

Hanke: My scenario that the Strait will be closed for a considerable amount of time. And by the way, even when it so-called opens again, my baseline scenario is that it will be controlled by the Iranians….

I think that is a base-case scenario that people should be thinking about. I think most people are not thinking that way. They’re they they always raise the question when I’m interviewed, Mario. People say, “Well, if the Strait opens tomorrow, professor, what do you think’s going to happen?” And I and I come back and I say, “It’s not opening tomorrow.” So, you’re in a in a graduate seminar raising hypothetical questions that I think are largely irrelevant.

Note how the press relentlessly keeps flogging the idea that the Strait of Hormuz will magically go back to the old normal. OilPrice provides an example Kuwait Says Oil Output Won’t Recover for 10-12 Weeks After Hormuz Reopens

And on Iran’s economy:

Hanke: If you look at the the Gulf States from 2008 when the great financial crisis started until prior right prior to the war, the the GDP per capita on a purchasing power parity basis, it it was going down big time in all the Gulf states with the exception of two, Saudi Arabia and Iran. And they were going up in Saudi Arabia and Iran by almost exact exactly the same…

Let’s take away the narrative without getting in into the weeds of the details of how this actually happened and and the the narrative coming from the Gulf was it was booming everything was great you know that everyone was moving to Dubai. You know, every everyone in the world was moving there. It was booming a lot. Real estate boom, all the rest of it. Well, it actually was basically flatlining. It went from 100 to about 96, the number GDP per capita.

Now, what happened in Saudi Arabia? Well, it went from 100 to about 115 or 16. Same thing happened in Iran. It goes from 100 to 115.

Nawfal: I’m surprised at Iran. I thought the economy was…

Hanke: Well, that’s the problem getting destroyed. That’s the propaganda. That that that is what they that that is what the Israelis told the Americans before they before they invaded and and hit them. They said

Nawfal: They had the people on the streets as well.

Hanke: Well, the numbers are the numbers. And I’m telling you, if you if you look at Kuwait, it goes from a 100 down to about 56. A huge a huge Kuwait really in in bad shape from a from a GDP per capita that and that’s the best measure of kind of general prosperity because when we say per capita, that’s GDP that’s like income per person and and it’s adjusted for purchasing power parity..

I think that yeah I think the propaganda was that the rial was collapsing. That’s true. It it was they had in a big inflation problem. Yeah. That that’s true. It was.

But when you when the dust settles and you look at look at the whole picture and adjust for inflation adjust for exchange rates actually it was it was improving slowly.

It was improving. improving almost exactly at the same rate the Saudis were improving…

Nawfal: Despite the sanctions….

Hanke: Despite the sanctions and and everyone else in the Gulf the UAE was essentially flatlining and and Kuwait was plummeting big time Qatar was going going down Oman was going down Bahrain was going down.

Now to the efforts to understand what if anything is happening, talks-wise, between Iran and the US. The full text of a tweet from Hormuz Letter:

BREAKING: Iran rejects all of Trump’s new claims to NYP as “Trump’s fantasies” and “completely inconsistent with reality,” denying that Iran has been talking to the US in the past days, that Mojtaba Khamenei is involved in negotiations, that Iran has agreed not to have a nuclear weapon, or that the deal framework is being approved in Iran, per Tasnim.

Iran has not provided any response to the US regarding the draft memorandum of understanding in recent days and has ended all exchange of texts and communications until Iran’s conditions regarding Lebanon are met.

From Bloomberg on the latest US effort to “open” the Strait of Hormuz, in U.S. Looks to Unblock Hormuz With Quiet Version of Project Freedom:

A month after President Donald Trump announced — and then abandoned — a plan to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the US military is trying less public ways of protecting vessels in the vital waterway.

Rather than announcing an open challenge against Iran, the US is quietly coordinating with shippers willing to take a different approach. Evidence gleaned from US Central Command statements, shipping data and people with knowledge of the transits suggest ships are turning off transponders and sticking close to the Omani coast on the strait’s south to avoid Iranian mines, with the US military assisting if needed.

The latest evidence came Tuesday night amid a flareup between the US and Iran. Central Command issued a statement saying its forces shot down Iranian attack drones aimed at “civilian mariners that were rightfully transiting regional waters.”…

The effort marks a change in tactic from Trump’s previous effort, dubbed Project Freedom…Trump later said he was scrapping the idea after allies in the region asked him to back down.

The latest US push has no title and the administration has offered little public explanation. But it’s been accompanied by other signals that suggest the US is working with shippers in ways that officials have declined to specify…

Two shippers said previously they were in touch with the US military, which advised them on how best to navigate the waterway, Bloomberg News reported earlier. When one vessel was approached by suspected Iranian fast attack boats on a recent transit, helicopters appeared and drove them away, according to the person with knowledge of that transit.

“If the commercial ships are hugging the coast opposite of Iran and turning off their AIS transponders, Iranian forces would need to use radar or spotters to detect the movement and direct drone or missile attacks,” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

“The US Navy could detect these efforts and counterattack the Iranian units,” he said.

While some shippers are growing more optimistic about a pickup in traffic, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg indicates that movement through the strait has been limited. Just two inbound commercial transits were observed on Tuesday morning, following two outbound ships on Monday..

Two transits per day is the functional equivalent of zero.

Forgive me for not dwelling on the House voting against the Iran war, (see NBC in House votes to rebuke Trump over war with Iran if you must), since this action is in the wet-noodle-lashing category.

And a contrary data point:

Some economic tidbits:

Note that this sighting is not quite as bad as it looks. As a local contact pointed out:

The rice variety grown in Thailand is very heavily fertilizer dependent. This was because of a deal with corrupt officials in the government and certain Indian fertilizer importers. I was told this about 15 years ago by one of the Indians involved who was boasting about how much money they’re making. So I’m not surprised.

Accordingly, Thailand is one of the biggest fertilizer importers in the world. Even though Thailand historically has been a large exporter of rice, we featured a story from the Washington Post on how many farmers were letting their fields lie fallow since they could not make a profit between fertilizer and fuel costs. So worse than the price hikes may be the coming shortages.

Another shortage-in-the-making sighting:

And a final note:

____

1 I feel compelled to mention claims that Iran has obtained (note that John Mearsheimer said he did not believe (see at 24:05) that a third country would supply one and Mohammed Marandi effectively said that he could not prove a negative, but as far as he knew, the fatwa against nuclear weapons was still in place, see starting at 4:40). Keep in mind that Ted Postol has repeatedly stated that Iran could develop nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks from its existing stockpiles (I took his “weeks” to be “not two or three but not much more than that”). So the idea that Iran could devise a nuclear bomb quickly, indigenously, is not new news.

However, the claim originated from a single source, which in my experience raises big red flags. In my history of reporting, single sources, unless they also present documentary evidence, are dodgy. Even if they are sincere and did hear what they say they heard, that does not mean they have the full picture. And in a worse case scenario, they may be trying to burn the reputation of the reporters by planting a story that winds up being disproven.

What is new is the claim, per the well-connected Robert Barnes on a new talk with Mario Nawfal, that Trump was informed of this new story, last Thursday, and that Iran was specifically planning to make a demonstration if the US did not accept key Iran demands. Barnes’ argument is that the Iranians have worked out that Trump is most fearful of humiliation and having Iran show it has nuclear capabilities after Trump has gone on and on and on about how Iran must never get a nuclear weapon would be the most embarrassing thing that could happen to him and he would be highly motivated to avoid that. Barnes argues that he sees the risk of US escalation as much lower than before.

Well….perhaps. First, the timeline does not match up. The US escalated further this week in the Strait of Hormuz, at best pushing the envelope of tit-for-tat dustups. Rubio also held to the existing US line in his Senate testimony, repeating US maximalist demands, such at that Iran needed to export or destroy (how has never been clear to me) its enriched uranium.

Second, it is entirely possible that this is an information operation (which I do not regard as the same as a bluff). Keep in mind that Trump does not read intel briefings. He instead gets a daily 2 minute video update on Iran, which has been characterized as “Best explosions made by the US in the last 24 hours”. Barnes has earlier claimed that many of the leaks to the New York Times are to get information to Trump, since he does read the Times religiously.

In other words, this story could have been devised by the many factions who see that Trump is about to destroy the US and the global economy, yet has seemed in no mood to back down. So this “Iran will detonate a bomb if you don’t relent” is a new reason for Trump to finally get over himself and find an exit.

However, I can see this backfiring. Israel is determined to throw a spanner in any peace attempts. Recall also that Israel is rumored to have convinced Trump that Iran was behind the Butler assassination attempt.

The many many Zionists around Trump could use the claim that Iran is now prepared to get or develop a nuclear weapon in the very near future as reason to strike Iran as hard as possible now to prevent that from happening.

And either way, can Trump really constrain Israel? He clearly has the means, by cutting off intel plus weapons and spare part deliveries. But the backlash from the Zionist-supporting media in the US would be fast and brutal.

2 Please filter out that Hanke is a member of the Mises Institute. His commentary ex on monetarism and other libertarian hobbyhorses, is sound.

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77 comments

  1. Robert Gray

    Re: Steve Hanke & Mario Nawfal

    > … machine transcript

    Thank you, AI, for another chuckle:

    > … purchasing power parody …

    Reply ↓
    2. Yves Smith Post author

      I caught one “parody” but not the second. Fixing.

      Machine transcripts are not full fledged AI but are often lumped in with it because hype.

      Reply ↓
      1. diptherio

        Thank you for that, Yves. Machine generated speech-to-text has been around for a lot longer than LLMs, and no one who isn’t in marketing has ever referred to such a program as being “intelligent.”

        Reply ↓
    3. diptherio

      I have to say I have a hard time watching Nawfal’s interviews, simply because he is so painfully naive, seemingly taking every declaration from the White House (for instance) at face value. It can be a little entertaining to watch his guests correct his credulity, but most of the time I just want to shake the guy for being so obtuse, lol.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ghost in the Machine

        Me too, but I am starting to think he is intentionally doing that to spur the conversation. But, it is still irritating.

        Reply ↓
      2. jsn

        I’m watching him as a sort of barometer of of the declining atmospheric pressure of “the narrative”.

        The poor sot, bless his heart, moved to UAE if I understand right for the lifestyle, and is now publicly rebuilding his world view through interviews.

        Seems like a decent fellow as he only holds his priors in the face of evidence for a week or so before succumbing to the obtrusions of reality.

        Reply ↓
        1. Michaelmas

          Douglas MacGregor is the only time I’ve bothered to watch one of Mario Hawfal’s videos, just because of the contrast of worldviews and the fact that MacGregor gets more into a black comedy mode in reaction to Hawfal’s naivete than the unadornedly dour military man mode we usually get from him.

          Interestingly, MacGregor may actually know more world military history than Larry Wilkerson.

          Reply ↓
          1. Yves Smith Post author

            Yes, Macgregor from time to time shows his very deep and detailed knowledge of military history and the related politics.

            Wilkerson is very good on the Middle East from about 1990.

            Reply ↓
        2. Lefty Godot

          Moved to UAE for the lifestyle? That brings to mind…

          Captain Renault: And what in heaven’s name brought you to Casablanca?
          Rick Blaine: My health. I came to Casablanca for the waters.
          Captain Renault: The waters? What waters? We’re in the desert.
          Rick Blaine: I was misinformed.

          Reply ↓
      3. Yves Smith Post author

        I am not at all wild about him as an interviewer. At best, he is too open about Dunning- Krugeresque priors, although his display of them sometimes elicits very good responses from his guests.

        But he works like crazy and has on many often fine guests that are seldom seen on other channels. There is undue opinion-herding due to many of the same faces appearing on Judge Nap, Daniel Davis Deep Dive, Glenn Diesen and Nima.

        Reply ↓
        1. Irrational

          Your last para: so true. But they usually have the same point to plug around the same time, so pick the interviewer you like best. I often end up with Judge Nap because short or Dan Davis if he is talking to another military guy because synergies. Gave up on Diesen. Nima if topic or guest is interesting.

          Reply ↓
        2. Jeff W

          I did recall your previous mention of Dunning-Kruger in relation to Mario Nawfal and that made me a bit leery of watching him but now I just take his naive (to interpret them generously) questions as prompts to elicit information from his guests.

          It is a bit annoying to have him take every pronouncement from Washington at face value and of great import but, again, that can be filtered out. Just yesterday he asked former JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre about the heated comments President Trump made to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Eyre stated flatly, “Everything you’re talking about is epiphenomena. It’s noise, not signal”—there is value to have the latest breathless “breaking news” smacked down like that.

          And, as you say, he does work like crazy, having seemingly four or five guests in a day—that’s not counting his co-host Azi also having interviews—and, for him, the “day” is in the middle of the night. (I saw him wrap up his last interview of the day with Larry Johnson at 4 am just the other day.)

          Reply ↓
      6. eg

        This is why Alex Christoforou is the best guest on that show — he brooks none of Mario’s nonsense, often laughing outright at the most preposterous elements.

        Reply ↓
  2. paul

    Recall also that Israel is rumored to have convinced Trump that Iran was behind the Butler assassination attempt.

    I am really surprised the haven’t pinned Charles Kirk’s assassination on them as well.

    But I suppose that’s just old news now.

    Reply ↓
    1. Kilgore Trout

      At the risk of going down a rabbit hole, perhaps they have. Larry Johnson has poked holes in the Kirk assassination narrative, suggesting the shooting was a Mossad hit. As for the Butler attempt, claims that it was a fabrication by the Trump campaign seem plausible. How deformed/ damaged is Trump’s ear now, supposedly hit in the assassination attempt? Are there any good close-ups of that ear through his comb-over now? One would expect it to resemble an old-time wrestler’s cauliflower or chewed-off ear.

      Reply ↓
      1. Bill Carson

        I watched Larry Johnson’s interview on Mario Nawfal’s show last night, and Johnson was giddy to report that Iran had obtained nukes. Johnson is the same guy who reported a few weeks ago that Trump had to be physically restrained from grabbing the nuclear football from its handler. Both stories set off my BS detector in a big way. I think the guy has some helpful information to share based on his supposed experience with the CIA, but it is impossible to tell what is truth from what is horse hockey. Couple that with our own human desire to have our opinions suspicions confirmed and it’s a recipe for disaster. Listener beware, IMO.

        Reply ↓
    2. bassmule

      Got to wondering how ol’ Tyler James Robinson is getting along. From mr wiki:

      “After his arrest, Robinson was transferred to Utah County Jail in Spanish Fork, where a judge ordered him held without bail.[122] He made his first court appearance by video feed on September 16 before Judge Tony Graf in the Utah County Justice Court in Provo.[89][123][124] Robinson’s family have since been visiting him virtually and occasionally in-person”

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        His trial could end up being like that of Ryan Routh, the guy that tried to shoot Trump at his golf course. The guy had all sorts of dodgy Ukrainian connections and his story kinda disappeared from the media until one day the news broke that he had been found guilty and that was it. Nothing to see. Move along, move along.

        Reply ↓
        1. JohnH

          After every shooting, the media routinely asserts the “police are looking for the motive.” But they never seem to find one…

          Reply ↓
      2. A Little Bird

        The weirdest thing about that kid is he *clearly believes* he was involved (according to what we’ve been presented). It seems they’re having some difficulty proving his rifle was the one that killed Charlie (saying that generously) so what exactly happened with TJR ? Who is this kid, and who actually shot Charlie Kirk? It’s all so strange.

        Reply ↓
        1. n

          Im waiting for someone to explain how a 30 cal rifle round fired from 100 yards or so away hit his neck and then just stopped, not even making an exit wound.

          Reply ↓
  3. The Rev Kev

    The Lebanon truce to end the war is no such thing but is an attempt by Trump to separate the war in Lebanon from the war in Iran. I suspect what happened was that Israel and the US negotiated the terms of this ‘truce’ and then called in the Lebanese to the room for the photo op. So if I have got it right, not only Hezbollah but all Lebanese are suppose to pull back over the Litani river leaving the Israelis in full control of southern Lebanon while they finish destroying all towns and villages. Then ‘pilot zones’ will be created to separate the Israelis from everybody else. ‘Selected’ units of the Lebanese army will man them under US control but no word of how they will work or even operate. Hezbollah will stop all attacks on the Israelis while the Israelis will be free to attack whatever they want in order to defend themselves. Then afterwards they will work out how to take away Hezbollah’s weapons. So what the IDF cannot do on the battlefield Trump and Bibi are trying to do with these so-called negotiations.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      Make “pilot zones” in Gaza first! Push IDF out and use PRC infantry.

      Scarce difference between Lebanon and Gaza. US has puppet regime in Beirut, that makes the genocide seem legit.

      “Model areas” or “pilot zones” seems like strategic hamlets ala US in Vietnam 1963. US contracted security.

      No ceasefire!

      Make Lebanon Gaza.

      Reply ↓
      1. motorslug

        If China sent in a few hundred K troops, they could return Palestine to it’s rightful inhabitants, send all the zionazis to Antarctica. Although I would feel bad for the penguins.

        Reply ↓
    2. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      “The Lebanon truce to end the war is no such thing but is an attempt by Trump to separate the war in Lebanon from the war in Iran”

      I think it is an attempt to incite a civil war in Lebanon, with the Labanese government essentially being asked to disarm Hezbollah for Israel’s convenience.

      Reply ↓
  4. jsn

    I enjoyed the machine translation fail in the Hanke quote, “purchasing power parody”, as it succinctly anticipates our future.

    Reply ↓
  5. jsn

    Yves comment in her footnote regarding an Iran nuke is close to what I thought yesterday listening to Pepe and Larry yesterday with the Judge: a Dan Rather moment approacheth.

    On the other hand, the Hanke commentary on the true status of the Iranian economy supports Postals thesis Iran could certainly have done this.

    And, equally, it could have been a staged information opp by Iran to tell Mossad, MI6 and CIA about a fictional bomb in a way that would get back to Trump to purchase time for the western barrel to tip over the edge of the oil fall.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      I’m sorry. Your last sentence had me imagining Trump going over Niagara Falls in an oil barrel. My mind is a cultural waste tip.

      Reply ↓
  6. JMH

    “He clearly has the means, by cutting off intel plus weapons and spare part deliveries. But the backlash from the Zionist-supporting media in the US would be fast and brutal.”

    Yes it would. It is also exactly what should be done and maintained as needful because it is in the best interest of the US to do so. Trump does not know the meaning of courage, political or otherwise, so it would be a great surprise if it happened. On the other hand, one can shunt aside if not entirely avoid the, for Trump, humiliation of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons after his tedious repetition of, “Iran must never have a nuclear weapon.” by such a dramatic move.

    The, at once, frightening and pathetic aspect is that the best interest of the US is hostage to the fragile ego of this whining narcissist. He is near 80 years of age and for the first time in his life he is up against a reality that allows him no escape. He is the one who made the colossal mistake and no convenient bankruptcy law is going to provide an escape hatch.

    Reply ↓
  7. Acacia

    Re: Kuwait Airport T1 terminal

    Possibly not just trolling about that Patriot self-own ?

    IRGC says they carried out an investigation and that the IRGC did not fire at this target, and the destruction of Kuwait Airport passenger terminal was caused by an American Patriot system malfunction, which, after failing to intercept Iranian missiles, landed on this terminal.

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/185684

    Or, possible false flag:

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/185716

    Reply ↓
      1. LawnDart

        Yeah Rev, I don’t think it was a Patriot either: too much “boom” on impact from what I’ve seen.

        I think speculation as to whose drone it was is fully-warranted given the total lack of credibility demonstrated (repeatedly) by some of the parties involved in this conflict.

        Reply ↓
      2. Victor Sciamarelli

        I have been to Kuwait Intn’l airport many times though not recently. The US military occupied a large chunk of the airport grounds in order to load and unload military cargo planes and troops which supports the US bases. IIRC it also used Terminal 1 for certain military flights including military civilian charter flights; cargo and personnel.
        If it is still used by the US, and I assume it is, KIA is valuable, it has long runways which in the heat aircraft need longer runways for takeoff, then KIA would certainly be a legitimate military target.

        Reply ↓
        1. Ex-PFC Chuck

          I presume “KIA” in this context is the airport code, not “Killed in Action.” But maybe it’s both.

          Reply ↓
  8. ISL

    Opreation project freedom whatever – you do not need radar to see boats across the straits – just a telescope (with an IR camera). Is the US military that stoopid? or are they just making shit up and assuming the US is that stoopid. Or just their commander in chief? In contrast, the Iranians are intelligent.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      I’ll bet the Iranians have a dedicated group of Shore Watchers active along their coastline. Every country with an ocean view location sets one up, for internal morale if for nothing else.
      “What did you do in the war Grandad?”
      “I kept our sacred shores safe from the godless capitalists my dear.”
      “What was your specialty?”
      “Long range threat detection. I can say no more. We signed secrecy papers.”
      “Wow! Now finish your cous-cous Grandad.”
      “You must have made this for me.”
      “How can you tell?”
      “Light on the cardamom, heavy on the apricots. You like apricots too.”
      “Yes Grandad. When Mom gets mad at me, she says I take after your side of the family.”
      “There are worse fates. You could be married to a Gulfie.”
      “Don’t say that Grandad! It’s hard enough avoiding those octopuses Mom keeps trying to marry me off to.”
      “Stay strong young woman. Those so and sos are only after your dowry.”
      “I have more attractions than just money!”
      “True my dear, but I must avoid talking about such things. It isn’t modest.”
      “Grandad! You know how to make me laugh old man.”
      “Never forget how to laugh. It is your greatest asset. Time for my nap.”
      “OK Grandad. Sleep well. Dream of me.”
      “Heaven forbid! You do take after my side of the family!”
      Granddaughter laughing as she leaves the room.

      Reply ↓
    2. scott s.

      I would be cautious about claiming visual detection ranges. I haven’t transited the strait, but from many hours standing on the bridge of a warship with binocs around my neck I’ve learned that radar is your friend.

      Reply ↓
    3. Ben Panga

      Also, the Iranians don’t need to see every ship.

      One or two being spotted and droned/missiled would be enough to discourage others and effectively shut down the route.

      Reply ↓
    4. MichaelSF

      Does Iran need to confine observers to their own territory? If the ships are hugging the Oman coast, it seems like it would be pretty easy to have “informal” Iranian observers watching from that side of the strait. A few Iranians (or Omanis) at key points that must be passed by ships could easily alert the IRGC via cell phone and then higher-tech observation equipment on the Iranian side of the strait would know where to look without trying to peer 20-30 miles away 24/7.

      Reply ↓
  9. Ann

    Hezbollah rejects Lebanon ceasefire brokered by U.S., Israeli military says it will continue attacks

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-challenges-9.7223002

    Ayatollah says Iran delivered ‘decisive blow’ to ‘malicious enemy’

    https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/04/ayatollah-says-iran-delivered-decisive-blow-to-malicious-enemy

    Iran’s Khamenei warns against divisions after ‘enemy’s defeat on battlefield’

    https://www.reuters.com/world/irans-khamenei-warns-against-divisions-after-enemys-defeat-battlefield-2026-06-04/

    Iran nuclear risk seen higher than before Trump attacks began | The International Atomic Energy Agency warns the war has created new nuclear dilemmas that didn’t exist before

    https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/iran-nuclear-risk-seen-higher-than-before-trump-attacks-began

    Netanyahu faces plunging support in north Israel as voters demand tougher Lebanon stance

    https://www.aol.com/articles/netanyahu-faces-plunging-support-north-073029000.html

    Reply ↓
      1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway:
        “I’ll have what Ankara’s having.”

        Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      Thanks, this was well worth a read. Some quotes,

      For the first time, Blackstone relied on a mechanism that allows it to restrict investors from pulling their money, following rivals such as Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, KKR and Ares Management which capped redemptions earlier this year., and

      The exodus from private credit has shaken the alternative investment industry, which had tethered its growth to a massive influx of capital from Main Street investors., and,

      Shares of the private investment group are down almost 30 per cent this year.

      That’s a lot.
      There’s also some good industry “court drama” themed around appearance of liquidity. Good stuff!

      Reply ↓
      1. The Joker

        That was after it sank ~5% yesterday. The market thinks that stiffing the gamblers investors is pump-worthy…

        Reply ↓
  12. Vikas

    Last night’s Eurodollar Youtube emphasized some contagion to a private equity fund. Overall, maybe that indicates the risk levels are higher in the private capital space (bc ‘sophisticated’ investors), so showing up earlier — or maybe just that, regardless of risk, those investors have a more sensitive nose and less subject to manipulation than public vehicles traveling on Mr Market’s highway

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Mr. Market may be waking up to the fact that there are some AI IEDs along that highway and public vehicles will be running out of gas. The rush to the doors will be sudden and bloody.

      Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        Speaking of “running out of gas,” these ‘vehicles’ could also be characterized as AI EDs. Kind of soft on the performance. I know the phrase “short performance” is already taken, but how about “Cowboy up!” to describe a market full of action ending very quickly. (Bull riding is a thing on the rodeo circuit. It usually ends badly for the Cowboys.)
        Stay safe. Stay liquid.

        Reply ↓
  13. Not Sure

    Re: Fertilizer dependent rice in Thailand

    The fact that the “green revolution” is still worshipped worldwide is to me one of the biggest signs of the utter failure of mankind as a society. Brazil’s MST (Landless Workers’ Movement) grows organically around 14.000 metric tons of rice anually (sometime more) without industrial fertilizers or poisons. A drop in the bucket for the big scheme, sure (less than 0,2% of total country production), but at 70%-75% productivity compared to conventional, it is not at all irrelevant. And cultivation itself is **cheaper** than conventional. Bigger labour requirements, even with high mechanization, lead the final cost a little higher.

    Production, processing and part of distribution is done collectively while roughly 70%-80% of total country production is done by Big Ag. In the end, wich one yelds a better outcome for society? Concentrate income in a few individuals who will hoard the gains or spread them trough thousands of people who will pass it on and support whole communities? As for additional space requirements, it is not that big and there is plenty of vacant land destroyed by Big Ag waiting to be brought back to life. It has been done around the world. Also, while at a first glance non-chemical agriculture may have lower yelds, for food crops in general this applies for monocultures. Once consortiated crops are put into the mix, chemical bites the dust considering total harvest/area.

    But as KLG wrote yesterday, this is a very wide issue. Non-chemical approach is just the technical side. Society, economics and mindset would have to be shaken upside down and it will not happen. Sadly.

    Reply ↓
    1. A Little Bird

      Society Economics and Mindset will be upended eventually, the question is by whom and for what ends ? You literally cited a powerful example of what collective action could produce, are Americans so averse to change they’ll forever sleepwalk into their own destruction ?

      Reply ↓
  14. Timmy

    Politico is reporting that energy industry execs have been telling the White House that inventory levels will generate a meaningful spike in prices in a matter of weeks. A source in the White House denies these conversations and further comments suggest the US is “in a position of strength”.

    “We’re at dangerously low levels already,” said one industry executive who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with the administration. “We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June. … I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now. You’re hitting tank bottom.”

    A White House official denied that any senior members of staff have been warned privately by the industry about inventories. “Politico’s anonymous sources are wrong,” the official said.

    An Energy Department official said that while the agency remains in regular dialogue with energy industry leaders, there have been “no such discussions” about inventories.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Meanwhile, back at the reality ranch, far from Wall Street, where meth-addled gamblers strung out on Truth Social chase every latest rumor of a ceasefire in Iran for a reason to short paper futures, we have this development:

      https://seekingalpha.com/news/4600403-american-airlines-to-suspend-california-routes-to-mitigate-fuel-costs

      American Airlines (AAL) is reportedly suspending routes, including four nonstop flights from American’s Los Angeles International Airport hub, as a result of soaring fuel costs.

      The decision to cut the majority of flights to and from California can largely be blamed on a 50% spike in jet fuel prices at Los Angeles International Airport, which reached a high of $15 per gallon. Other carriers have made similar cuts to their California routes including United Airlines (UAL), Air Canada (ACDVF), and Norse Atlantic Airways (NRSAF).

      That begs the question, why is the Trump administration not diverting some jet fuel exports domestically to help out California? America Last, again. Or is this “markets” working, by sending jet fuel to more desperate buyers in Europe willing to pay even more than $15/gallon?

      Reply ↓
      1. DD GE

        Because they’re commies ?
        More seriously, it’s a sad state of affairs but one could see that right ?

        I think you’re right when you point to market forces though, it appears we Europeans have been living high on the hog (for 3 months) thanks to those American fuels. Just ’cause we wuz good for it y’know.

        I’ll let you know when we make it to Reality Ranch ;-)

        Reply ↓
    2. Samuel Conner

      If DJT admin is unconcerned about “inventories”, it would not be surprising. The “I don’t care” administration.

      It is sobering to contemplate that we may not have yet reached peak incompetence in US governance.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        I suspect that the “plan”, if there is one, is to ride the AI bubble into the mid-terms and pray that we don’t get a market crash before November.

        Taco’s job approval ratings have hit all-time lows. I am too lazy/busy to search for the article but I saw it in the Economist. Normally, this would be enough to send the incumbent party into a panic, but so far no mass rebellion is evident. So the Elephants look to ride this sucker into the apocalypse to their own detriment, polls be damned.

        I remember well the last year of GW Bush’s second term – it was an UN-paralleled disaster, with “tape bombs” hitting the markets practically every single day, weekend emergency Fed meetings, along with various other disasters. Something tells me the last 2 years of Trump will make that look like the utmost in competency.

        Reply ↓
        1. Jason Boxman

          Well, Republican party aside, Trump’s plan is always and ever to make little Trump get big. He cares not I think of others, and we know particularly not about American citizens getting hosed by high gas prices.

          Reply ↓
    3. Chris in OK

      This is interesting. Chris Wright knows the oil and gas industry extremely well. He’s also an actual engineer and not a politician so surely he must know what’s coming (and has the personal cell phone numbers of every oil and gas CEO). I wonder if he’s been shut-out of access to Trump like Tulsi was. Can’t be delivering Trump any sads….

      Reply ↓
    4. Jason Boxman

      That’s rich, so if you believe the White House, they have in fact not been informed of pending doom and deny that they’re aware of any pending doom.

      Not sure if that’s a better look when pending doom in fact materializes as it will.

      Reply ↓
      1. Samuel Conner

        There is an entire cabinet department, the Department of Energy, that is concerned with, among other things, liquid fuels. Surely there are people there, below the top-level political appointees, who are aware of the situation regarding, for example, diesel supplies and the implications of shortages.

        I hope I live long enough to read the histories that are written about this period. The dysfunction is staggering.

        Reply ↓
  15. Ann

    Lula thanks China for beef win and tells US after tariffs: ‘I will sell to someone else’

    https://www.scmp.com/news/us/article/3355879/lula-thanks-china-beef-win-and-tells-us-after-tariffs-i-will-sell-someone-else

    Russia’s oil and gas revenue rises 32% y/y to $9.26 billion in May, data shows

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-gas-revenue-rises-32-yy-926-billion-may-data-shows-2026-06-03/

    Japanese MP Urges Government to Transfer Patriot Missiles to Ukraine

    https://united24media.com/world/japanese-mp-urges-government-to-transfer-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-19447

    Israeli Knesset Committee advances bill to dissolve

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-898048

    Rubio: US has taken side in Russia-Ukraine war

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/rubio-us-has-taken-side-in-russia-ukraine-1780517131.html

    HSBC charged for helping former Lebanese central bank head embezzle hundreds of millions

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/06/04/hsbc-charged-for-helping-former-lebanese-central-bank-head-embezzle-hundreds-of-millions_6754142_8.html

    Reply ↓
  16. Ann

    Israel and Hezbollah Trade Fresh Strikes as Militant Group Rejects Cease-Fire Plan

    https://time.com/article/2026/06/04/hezbollah-rejects-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-agreement-strikes/

    IDF, Shin Bet kill several Hamas General Security Apparatus officials in Gaza

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-898428

    Pentagon likely to cancel missile sale to Germany over fears of Russia

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/04/us-germany-tomahawks-missiles-cancel-00950284

    Israel and Hezbollah Trade Fresh Strikes as Militant Group Rejects Cease-Fire Plan

    https://time.com/article/2026/06/04/hezbollah-rejects-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-agreement-strikes/

    Bannon: GOP ‘going to lose the Senate’ in midterms

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5910570-bannon-predicts-gop-senate-loss/

    US oil reserves depleted amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure

    https://foxsanantonio.com/news/nation-world/us-oil-reserve-levels-fall-to-historic-lows-amid-iran-conflict-strait-of-hormuz-closure-white-house-untied-states-energy-russia-ukraine-barrels

    White House Tries to Bury Alarming Warning From Oil Execs | The Trump administration wants to pretend everything is totally fine amid the Iran war.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/211386/white-house-warning-oil-execs-gas-prices

    Feds failing in bid to take a supercomputer from a climate research center | The National Center for Atmospheric Research won’t be losing its supercomputer.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/06/judge-blocks-part-of-trump-admins-effort-to-hurt-colorado-research-center/

    Reply ↓

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