[Today’s Iran war post launched before complete. Please return at 8:00 AM or refresh this page then for a final version]
Trump has not only intensified his rhetoric but the US continues to move military assets into the Gulf region. Despite independent military experts saying to a person that the US cannot defeat Iran, the Fox News nutters and other hawks who have Trump’s ear push barmy plans with high odds of failure, like seizing islands. They depict what at the very best would be minor tactical gains as knockouts that would bring Iran to its knees, as opposed to further stiffening Iranian resolve.
Trump also freshly re-tweeted:1
Troublingly, Trump’s inner circle is openly, on TV, calling not just for rejecting negotiations but a renewal of assassinations of the leadership. Either they are so cloistered that they have no idea how bad this looks or they are seeking to normalize it, at least to the American public:
🚨 NEW: RETIRED GENERAL KEITH KELLOG SAYS TRUMP MUST "DECAPITATE" IRAN… WOAH💣
"DECAPITATION MUST continue… TAKE IRAN'S ISLANDS, give POTUS LEVERAGE"
"I'm not negotiating with these guys… we're gonna DICTATE the terms of the WAR" 🔥 pic.twitter.com/8RQI4WSJ8i
— Jesse Watters (@JesseBWatters) July 22, 2026
That is a sign that the desperation and anger in the White House has reached an even more fevered level. One confirmation comes in a new talk between Trita Parsi and Mario Nawfal. The normally emotionally contained Parsi, who has been consistently optimistic about the possibility of a negotiated outcome, is, in his measured way, in despair. He assesses the odds that the war will resume in the next month at a more intense level than in first 40 days at 80%:
In another effort to restore Trump’s flagging manhood, the official US policy is to seek a head for an eye:2
SECRETARY RUBIO: "The President's policy is a head for an eye." pic.twitter.com/VcUExOl8Kr
— Department of State (@StateDept) July 23, 2026
Robert Barnes, via Daniel Davis, confirms what many have suspected, that Trump, having surrounded himself with boot-lickers, is being told only what he wants to hear. From Twitter:
Trump’s Iran War Delusion Exposed: Ignoring the Failure of the First 40 Days of Bombing, Trump Tries AGAIN to Force Open the Strait ⚠️
Robert Barnes (@barnes_law) lays out exactly how dangerous that has become:“There’s nothing we can do to open the strait militarily — that is the reality.” Yet Trump only accepts that truth on days when he is, as Barnes puts it, “mentally sober.”
He explains how Trump understood the severe economic, energy, and geopolitical risks when he signed the MOU — but then “keeps relapsing back into delusional Donald” after listening to Fox News generals and media cheerleaders.
Barnes details how Trump convinces himself that escalation will magically produce good outcomes: “The good thing is absolutely going to happen. The bad thing’s not going to happen.”
Meanwhile, CENTCOM has “not been forthcoming” about casualties, and Barnes warns the real number of wounded may exceed a thousand — including contractors not counted in official tallies.
He argues this is an unnecessary, counterproductive war enabled by a cabinet that won’t push back: “All you have are cowards for the most part other than Vance and Colby.”
John Mearsheimer re-confirms what many military experts have been saying for some time: that the US has run out of military targets in Iran and is now attacking civilian infrastructure:
From a lightly edited machine transcript:
Davis: What do you make first of all the statement [from former Administration official Robert Greenway] that because Iran can’t be trusted and they don’t they don’t meet any of their obligations, President Trump is, the word he used, compelled, to ratchet this up. What do you say?
Mearsheimer: I think he’s dead wrong. It’s the Americans who can’t be trusted…
Davis: And so what about his his comment there that we should be encouraged that President Trump has a resolution to this? So even though Iran is not doing what we want them to, forget about what the MOU actually said, but don’t worry because we have escalation dominance, do we?
Mearsheimer: Well, you want to remember that President Trump signed the memorandum of understanding on June 17th because he had no choice. The Iranians were winning the war and the Iranians held all the cards when you went up the escalation ladder. And this is why President Trump signed what was effectively a surrender document.
Now the question you have to ask yourself is what’s changed since June 17th that now gives us escalation dominance. I mean if we had had escalation dominance before June 17th we would have taken advantage of that and we would have used it to make sure we got a better agreement. The fact that we didn’t take advantage of it meant we didn’t have escalation dominance before June 17th.
So the argument here is that something has changed. Well, I’d like to know what is that something that has changed.
According to my calculations, we’ve been engaged in this tit fortat strategy since July 7th. Again, the memorandum of understanding was signed June 17th. We then welched on the deal and you got this tit for tat strategy starting on July 7th which is now taking place. And it does not look like it we have gained any coercive leverage over Iran as a result of that tit for tat strategy. They are matching us at every turn and causing us huge trouble in the Gulf. We don’t have escalation dominance.
Now, is the administration saying that we can escalate further? We can be we can go beyond tit for tat, maybe go back to the 40-day war, which was a real strategic bombing campaign that took place between February 28th uh and April 8th, we can go back to that and we’ll win that conflict. I don’t think so. There’s no evidence we can do that. uh and there’s no evidence that continuing tit for tat even at a higher level is going to produce uh the desired outcome for the United States.
Even the CIA has reached the same conclusion:
🚨 BOMBSHELL! CNN confirms the CIA officially assessed that Trump's nightly bombing campaign is completely failing to move Iran.
The Pentagon's strategy is a total disaster.
The White House is panicking as the disastrous war causes oil prices to skyrocket. Total failure! pic.twitter.com/iI3OfD3ldp
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) July 23, 2026
The open rage from Administration officials confirms that the US thinks that sort of punishment campaign can bring Iran to its knees. Robert Pape says that the long historical record shows that that is not true. But contrary to Mearsheimer and Pape, the US is bringing an awful lot of additional firepower into the region.
Even though Trump is famous for his TACOs, and the Iran has repeatedly described how it can and will bring about a global depression via the destruction of petrostate energy assets, Administration actions, in connection with the extremely belligerent language, suggest that Trump will indeed try to escalate kinetically. From Hamidreza Azizio on Twitter:
Signs of a Major Escalation in the U.S.-#Iran War
🔹Multiple developments over the past several hours suggest that the U.S. war on #Iran may be approaching a significant escalation.
🔹Last night’s U.S. strike on the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iran and Iraq has been interpreted as a possible preparatory move for the deployment of special operations or ground forces. Alternatively, the strike may have been intended to facilitate the advance of armed insurgent groups.
🔹In the same context, the drone strike on the Al-Abdali border crossing between Iraq and Kuwait was likely carried out by Iran or its Iraqi allies in an effort to disrupt the U.S. logistical corridor linking the two countries.
🔹Meanwhile, reports indicate that shelters have been opened at multiple locations across Israel. Similar measures preceded earlier escalations, including the 12-Day War and the 40-Day War, suggesting that Israeli authorities are preparing for possible Iranian missile attacks.
🔹France and the United Kingdom have also reportedly evacuated their embassies in Iran as of today.
🔹Trump, for his part, has declared that he holds Iran responsible for Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This statement could provide a pretext for intensifying U.S. strikes against Iran in response to future Houthi operations.
🔹The warning should be viewed alongside Trump’s earlier statement on Wednesday that any future Iranian attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with a U.S. strike on an Iranian bridge or power plant. He has also indicated that a U.S. attack on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at “Pickaxe Mountain” is inevitable.
🔹At the same time, the United States appears to be reducing its military presence at bases closer to Iran, including in Qatar. Open-source reporting also points to a large-scale transfer of military equipment from the United States and Europe to Israel, along with increased activity by reconnaissance, command-and-control, and electronic warfare aircraft across the region. The United States has also deployed B-1 strategic bombers to the theater.
🔹Iran has warned that any attack on its infrastructure or nuclear facilities will be met with comparable strikes against regional targets. Several Iranian analysts also argue that, should the United States substantially intensify its campaign, Iran would likely strike strategic targets inside Israel regardless of whether Israel is directly involved in the operation.
🔹Overall, these developments suggest that the conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase, potentially comparable to the peak of the 40-Day War.
Even with the US openly putting Iranian energy infrastructure on the menu, attacks on the grid will have limited effects due to decentralization. From Global 21 Destroying Iran’s Infrastructure Is a Hard Task, and There Are No Effective Means to Do It at Scale
To obliterate both the electrical and oil sectors, multiple waves of missiles and guided bombs would be required against each of these targets. We are talking about 6,000 to 10,000 projectiles.
In many countries, striking the power grid would create immediate chaos and constitute a terrifying threat. In Iran, however, the task is far more difficult.
The Iranian electric grid is one of the most decentralized in the world, with around 130 to 150 large power plants, primarily gas-fired thermal plants. No single facility dominates large portions of the country’s electricity generation. The largest plant, Damavand near Tehran, has a capacity of approximately 2,868 MW, only about 2.9% of total installed capacity.
Other major plants, such as Shahid Salimi Neka, Rudeshur, Kerman, and several hydroelectric facilities on the Karun River (including Karun-3), range from 1.6 to 2.2 GW each. Even combined, the five to ten largest plants account for less than 15-20% of total capacity. The rest is spread across dozens of smaller and medium-sized facilities.
When these medium-sized plants and small distributed power stations are added, the total number of generation points connected to the national grid exceeds 1,000. This forms a highly decentralized system explicitly designed to withstand high-intensity conflict.
To effectively paralyze Iran’s electricity supply, an adversary would also need to target the transmission and distribution network, which stretches over 133,000 kilometers, and exceeds 1.3 million kilometers when rural and urban lines are included.
Adding Iran’s oil and derivatives infrastructure makes the challenge even greater. This sector includes approximately 350 to 400 main facilities distributed among processing, storage, and export units. These comprise 9 main refineries, 66 drilling platforms, and more than 10 large complexes, occupying a combined area of over 500 km² spread across Iranian territory.
To obliterate both the electrical and oil sectors, multiple waves of missiles and guided bombs would be required against each of these targets. We are talking about 6,000 to 10,000 projectiles, attacks that would take weeks. The ammunition simply does not exist in the American arsenal available today, except for short-range bombs. Those short-range bombs would force aviation deeper into Iranian airspace, significantly increasing aircraft losses.
But the Trump team may go even more directly after the means of survival in Iran, as in water and grain stores. From Brett Erickson on Twitter:
My concern about Trump’s (apparent) willingness to escalate here is what the most likely escalation pathway is.
While many point to the bombing that has taken place over the past week, the movement of aircraft and assets into the region, and clear choreographing of what could be a limited boots on the ground operation… that’s NOT what is most likely.
The most likely option is that President Trump moves forward with, at least, Bridge and Power Plants Day.
This isn’t about “reopening the Strait of Hormuz”, this is about terrorizing the Iranian civilians. Plain and simple.
My concern however, is that he won’t stop here. Many of the most vicious Iran Hawks, the very same people that have overwhelmingly driven our Iran strategy thus far, are pushing for Trump to go much further.
They’re calling for Trump to strike water storage facilities. Wheat storage. To bomb vital economic infrastructure in Iran that would devastate the civilian population. To force inflation to skyrocket, the Rial to collapse, unemployment to wreak havoc.
My concern is not (necessarily) that Trump will put 50,000 boots on the ground to seize Qeshm and Larak.
My concern is he will systematically target and destroy large swaths of civilian and economic infrastructure to terrorize the civilians of Iran. To create a TRUE economic crisis. A humanitarian emergency.
And of course, Iran will retaliate in an even more devastating way… I’m just not sold that Trump cares about that anymore.
Echoing Erickson’s notion that Trump no longer cares about sending the world into a depression, more evidence that the Administration is retreating further into its cognitive bubble is Trump’s apparent lack of concern that oil has risen to over $100 a barrel. Readers report sudden jumps in gas prices at the pump. Trump has abandoned his practice of trying to reassure markets with “A deal is nigh!” patter either directly or though anonymous sources to Barak Ravid of Axios. He is instead using Axios to signal his commitment to more violence against Iran, with no consideration for collateral damage. From Exclusive: Trump “close” to decision on “massive attack” on Iran:
President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he’s seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran — including strikes that would be bigger than the ones carried out during Operation Epic Fury.
Why it matters: In a brief interview, Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences and stressed he hasn’t made a determination yet.
- Trump didn’t give a deadline for his decision. Two other U.S. officials confirmed no call has been made and no new orders have been given to the military….
What he’s saying: “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” the president said.
- Trump said Israel “would join in two minutes if I ask them to,” but added that “we don’t need anybody” to launch a new operation against Iran.
- He also said there would be “consequences” for Israel joining the strikes, hinting at Iranian retaliation against Israel.
The big picture: Trump said the Iranians “want to negotiate” but are not ready to make a deal at the moment.
- “They haven’t received enough pain yet,” he said.
- Two regional sources with knowledge of mediation efforts said Iranian leadership hasn’t accepted the latest proposal put forward.
- “We are trying, but the Iranians are not being helpful,” one of them said.
Trump’s team may take undue comfort from their view announced earlier this week, that they can run the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to much lower levels than experts had thought. We quoted this section from DropSite in yesterday’s Iran war post:
DropSite reports that the US plans to go even lower that we has posited [150 million barrels]:
U.S. DOE claims that petroleum reserve can run far lower than previously estimated: A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Energy told MarketWatch on Tuesday that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s “true operational minimum” is roughly 70 million barrels, well under the 250 to 300 million barrels the oil industry has generally treated as the practical limit.
The SPR, which has drained to its lowest level in 40 years, has roughly 246 barrels remaining for emergencies, the DOE claimed. It has shed more than 104 million barrels since the beginning of the U.S. war on Iran.
Not surprisingly, readers were skeptical. From comments:
TJBuff
So somebody told the WH that they could draw down the SPR to 10% of cavern water volume? And no problemo? I wonder whose butt they pulled that number from.
Dingleberry
Trumpty Dumpty will collapse the caverns if That’s What It Takes™️ and leave the problem for the Next Stooge™️ to solve. Great Success! 👍
The oil market continues to be rattled, albeit arguably not enough. From the Financial Times:
Oil prices hovered near $100 a barrel on Friday after crossing that mark for the first time since May the previous day as Donald Trump said he was weighing a “massive attack” on Iran and tensions escalated across the Middle East.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 1.7 per cent at $99.02 in morning trading in Europe. It had risen as high as $102 on Thursday after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea threatened to squeeze global supplies further and reignite a global inflation shock.
Oil had extended its blistering rebound this month after the Houthis said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers following their move to impose a maritime blockade on the kingdom this week, adding to fears that the US and Iran are headed for a return to full-blown conflict….
Trump made escalatory threats against nuclear and civilian Iranian targets this week, saying that US forces would strike Iran’s nuclear facility buried deep under Kolang Gazla — known as Pickaxe Mountain. He added later that the US would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time Tehran’s forces target a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also on Thursday warned the Houthis and Iran that they would face “major military punishment” if the attacks continued, and later said “any and all damages done” to ships and cargo “will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls”.
“This continued escalation is worrisome to markets,” said Bill Campbell, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine. “Oil is spiking at a time when things are much more precarious.”
“Last time around I was more confident there was an off-ramp for President Trump. This time around it feels much more serious,” he added….
The oil surge also hit bond markets as investors bet that big central banks will have to lift interest rates more quickly to contain the resulting inflation. The European Central Bank on Thursday warned “the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out” as it kept borrowing costs on hold.
US 10-year borrowing costs climbed 0.05 percentage points to 4.71 per cent, an 18-month high, while German 10-year yields touched their highest level since 2011 at 3.21 per cent.
Bloomberg’s landing page works hard to find some cheery news, per the “stocks get some relief” ‘headline:
Not that the move in oil prices was organic:
Iran rejected Trump’s ceasefire proposal via Iraq…
And oil is down.
Again, someone decided to dump a massive amount of oil futures during illiquid hours.
If this isn’t price manipulation, why would anyone intentionally sell into a thin market where the only guaranteed… pic.twitter.com/9I9ufMGeLJ
— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) July 24, 2026
Some sober assessments from Twitter:
Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Oman lane is dead.
Visible traffic continues to be nonexistent in the Oman lane, but the Iranians reported that 3 vessels attempted to transit with US escorts only to have one get attacked. The other 2 turned around.
With the Bab… pic.twitter.com/gaqfPaA9Jf
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) July 23, 2026
From Mario Nawfal, recapping an interview with Chris Martensen:
Oil just crossed $100 and the market is screaming shortage
Something snapped in the oil market this week.
Buyers are now paying about eleven dollars MORE for a barrel delivered in September than one in December, a flip that only happens when somebody needs the fuel right now and doubts it will be there later.
Chris Martenson has tracked these signals for two decades, and he points past crude to what people actually burn.
Jet fuel in Rotterdam hit roughly $158 a barrel this week.
Diesel sat near $148.
American diesel and heating oil just printed their highest prices ever recorded.
Then came the move nobody could paper over.
Overnight trading, usually dead hours with thin volume, ran daytime-sized numbers as Brent punched through $100 and Treasury yields climbed right alongside it.
Traffic through Hormuz has collapsed to four or eight ships a day, down from 125 or more.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude to bypass its own backup route.
Empty tanks cannot be talked down, and the arithmetic runs out by September.
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's escape route from Hormuz is now being REROUTED again.
After shifting exports to Yanbu and Bab el Mandeb, Houthi attacks are forcing Asian cargoes north through Suez and then around Africa.
A Yanbu to Taiwan voyage jumps from
19 to 48 days.Fuel costs rise… pic.twitter.com/eaViElkW6d
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) July 24, 2026
Even with the surge in crude, refining margins aren't falling that much because global product storage is low.
As a result, product prices will squeeze higher with crude, creating a vicious cycle. pic.twitter.com/qdQTi6jDio
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) July 23, 2026
US diesel prices, a key input to consumer prices on everything from groceries to new construction, are up 10% since July 5. pic.twitter.com/8wrCNl9Uyh
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 24, 2026
Remember that the US uses Venezuela crude and Canadian tar sands to produce diesel:
🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 US refiners are buying Venezuelan crude at the fastest pace since 2017, with July arrivals on track to reach 804,000 bpd.
The reason is simple: wildfire risk threatens Canadian supply just as refineries from Texas to Louisiana are running at full capacity. Venezuela is… pic.twitter.com/6UZZdgFGVg
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) July 23, 2026
Some speculate that Trump may have reconciled himself to losing the House in the fall and facing impeachment proceedings, but is sufficiently confident that a impeachment process would fail to garner the needed 2/3 vote in the Senate to remove him.
Trump has added that Iran’s frozen assets will be stolen:
Recall that Ursuala von der Leyen and other top officials were keen to purloin Russian frozen assets to fund the Ukraine war. But in the end, ferocious opposition from Euroclear, which would be first in the liability line of fire, forced the advocates to stand down. A more abstract but as real worry was that investors would become loath to keep financial assets in Euro accounts out of concern of the risk of expropriation.
On the kinetic front, due to the length of this post, we will give only brief treatment of Iran’s warning to the UK. At a minimum, this means the UK base in Cyprus is now officially on the menu.
From ISNA, translated from Persian by Twitter:
IRGC to UK: We warn the Kingdom of England, which has had the greatest involvement in the recent US and Israel aggressions, not to further burden its own case; any base used for aggression against Iran is a legitimate target for us.
And from Soureh on Twitter:
IRGC: We will no longer allow the US to restock its oil and ammunition reserves with deceptive ceasefires and then resume attacks.
The aggressive US military, which used to launch cruise missiles from its ships in the Indian Ocean in its aggressions after the official resumption of the war, turned to using B1 aircraft flying from the UK’s Fairford Air Base yesterday, as the missile reserves of these ships ran out. Any base used to invade Iranian territory is our legitimate target.
And:
Iran has issued a direct threat to the UK, saying that it's facilitated US and Israeli military operations against it and and that there could be consequences. Jiyar Gol explains #IranWar pic.twitter.com/syq9gvtM00
— Jiyar Gol (@jiyargol) July 23, 2026
Additional kinetic short takes:
⭕️ IRGC Announcement No. 46 said the 26th wave of "Operation Nasr 2" targeted U.S. forces in Kuwait in retaliation for a U.S. strike on an Iran-Iraq border crossing used by Arbaeen pilgrims.
➤ A U.S. electronic warfare unit at Al-Adyeri base was struck and, according to the… pic.twitter.com/gUWK70FXea
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 23, 2026
BREAKING: Iran has launched strikes targeting the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, with footages showing direct impacts following a fresh wave of Iranian attacks. Thick plumes of black smoke were seen rising from the area. pic.twitter.com/vJb4ZVEU6k
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) July 24, 2026
When we return, we will add a short section on the created and now killed by Trump Saudi nuclear “deal”.
Trump is now trying to retrade the deal by requiring that the Saudis must also join the Abraham Accords:
The Saudis are not accepting the Trump retrade of the agreement:
Your Excellency, the President of the United States,
In response to your post a few hours ago on Truth Social, we would like to inform you that you have miscalculated, and we invite you to review the terms of the officially signed contract between the Ministries of Energy of both… pic.twitter.com/lHS2cbmvMH— 🇸🇦Abdulsalam Saleh (@abdulslam2017) July 23, 2026
But they should know better:
The Saudis – who lobbied Trump to rip up the signed JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran – seem to think Trump cannot rip up a signed deal.https://t.co/MDNjGDZKp8
— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 23, 2026
And an unexpected cheery note of sorts:
🇮🇷🇺🇸The theory is really starting to make sense. pic.twitter.com/1po2aACp4O
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) July 24, 2026
____
1 Recall Trump said yesterday he was holding Iran responsible for Ansar Allah actions:
2 Professor Marandi is only one commentator, but as you can see below starting at 6:30, both he and Judge Napolitano were laughing at Rubio’s remarks:
So a bunkered up leader surrounded by sycophants is ranting about how vengeance or “V” weapons will save the day. Clearly the obsession with WW2 among the elites and the elderly cable TV audience has transformed “Never Again” into Always Again at least until this crowd exits to the Great Beyond or perhaps a padded cell.
Our only hope may be for Congress people to realize that they are facing their own existential threat by clinging to Trump. It’s a faint hope.
I have a feeling of déjà vu. Biden & the Neocons unable to stop or without backward gear, as some say, after failure in Ukraine and now Trump & the Neocons equally pushing forward blindly with a failed strategic vision in the Middle East. Rather than WW2 obsession I see inability to go backwards and doubling down in defeat. Inability to admit having made mistakes. Inability to see the cracks in the rules based order. The combination of these strategic mistakes plus climate change, plus El Niño contribute to a radical change and further weakening of the rules based order. We are yet to check how destructive it all turns to be. It looks awful. The two old decadent guys presiding pushed by the irresponsible apparatus behind them to double down on their mistakes.
Yours is the more useful interpretation of the situation.
Indeed.
Earlier today Glenn Diesen posted an interview he did with Michael Hudson yesterday in which the latter explains that the US started the Iran War with much more method in mind than met the eye, and that this explains why Trump and company are refusing to let go of it. As usual with Hudson the whole conversation is worth listening to, but the part relevant to the above begins somewhere around minutes 22 or 23.
new word: sycophaths
alternative new word: psychophants
sychopomps
sycopath /sī′kə-păth/
noun
1. A person who attempts to gain advantage by flattering or behaving in a servile manner to people who repeatedly engage in criminal and antisocial behavior without remorse or empathy for those victimized.
2. A cabinet member or advisor to an American President.
3. A retired American General performing as a media “expert commentator” for the purpose of disseminating propaganda on behalf of the military industrial mass-antisocial personality disorder complex.
For reasons of his own, Trump posted on his account a video clip from the “Rumble in the Jungle” fight between Muhammad Al and George Foreman back in ’74-
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116972976347462953
I know that he wants to depict the US coming back against Iran for a knockout blow but what he doesn’t understand is that it is Iran that is playing the “rope-a-dope” strategy and here Trump is the dope.
Not to mention the fact that using Muhammad Ali as an example would be rather ironic, to say the least. In 1966 he famously stated:
“I ain’t got no quarrel with them Viet Cong, No Viet Cong ever called me ni*ger.”
He does seem completely unaware he’s the dope.
And he should be of an age to recall the power of Ali’s stance on Vietnam. Ali would never, not in a million years, had an experience other than being a boxer in the military. He knew it and his fans knew it. Everyone knew that he sacrificed what may otherwise have been the best years of his career for a political point.
Is Trump actually unaware of Cassius Clay’s religious leanings?
There is a very funny side to all of this. To bad about the tragedy.
The only knockout blow coming is in November, when Mike Johnson and the GOP will get beaten like tomato cans.
Be careful what you think!
Elections? Gamed Elections? Clothespinned noses continue to vote against self interest, doubling down on their bets on Trump, one eye on their Trumpfolios that have done pretty, pretty well, By Jingo!?
Other than the sun rising in the east, I am uncertain of any particular event or outcome going forward .
The only thing my logic tree indicates is a nuclear attack or few, based on the power players, their real and perceived situations, faith, deesperation, and evolving circumstances.
Not good.
My confidence level that the House flips Dem is around 80% … based on polling data, here is one example:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/24/poll-gas-prices-republicans-midterms-trump-01008868
The Senate is anyone’s guess. I agree that we keep voting against self-interest, and stonk muckets may stay overpriced longer than we can stay solvent.
I find it difficult to conjure up events that would turn this around for the Pachyderms … a “rally round the flag” attack on the homeland (possibly a false flag) is one.
My fear is that as the mid-terms get closer (hard to believe early voting starts in less than three months!) the desperation will result in something truly awful, like you describe.
Say, maybe these guys can help out-
https://extremism.gwu.edu/patriot-front
Personally, when I see how they are all young, thin and fit they are, I suspect that they are all male recruits in training from the FBI academy which is why the masks.
Newly elected Representatives must be sworn in by the current House Speaker Mike Johnson before taking their seat. If the election goes to the Dems and Trump declares massive fraud, how long do you think Trump can carry on an investigation, and intimidate Johnson, in order to delay the swearing in ceremony?
For ex, Adelita Grijalva won a special election in AZ on 9/23/2025 and she was not sworn in until 11/12/2025. With Trump breathing down Johnson’s neck, I think he can stretch out a dozen or so DP victories much longer than 50 days.
I don’t think it works that way.
Assume the Dems win the House.
On the first day of the new Congress, they have to elect a Speaker. Johnson is demoted.
There is a breakfast or luncheon for the new members on the first day of the new Congress, plus orientation. Then they elect the new Speaker, and the new Speaker is sworn in by the longest-serving member of the House, which is not Mike Johnson. Then the new Speaker swears in the member-elect.
Johnson is effectively done the second the clock runs out on this Congress. Now, if the GOP wants to try and delay election results through litigation to prevent a Dem majority, that is a possible scenario. File court cases, contest ballots, demand recounts, etc.
Will there be elections?
Good question. I have a feeling that Trump will delay or cancel elections.
I stand corrected, you’re correct about Speaker Johnson. Nonetheless, I expect Trump to interfere if the election results don’t go his way.
The Democrats may gain the house, and even the Senate. Whatever majority they achieve will tragically be too small to do anything. Because reasons. The threshold to the chamber door plus the parliamentarian and maybe a particularly obnoxious squirrel will prove too much for them. Alas, there will be no stopping the war or severing Israel from our house. Medicare for some will also go away. There will be 10 thousand Trump and DOGE investigations. Which will be fun to watch.
Business as usual will be back in business!
And yet, and yet, with the Dems in charge of Congress, what was it that Joe Biden said, “Nothing will change.” ?
Fundamentally. I can’t recall if that was the first, or last word. And he was a Lawyer… words and their dis-order matter!
For some life-affirming music related to that fight, check out the YouTube clips of the concerts in Kinshasa that preceded it. The Fania All Stars – Celia Cruz singing “Quimbara” and Jorge Santana (Carlos’ older brother) shredding “El Raton” – and Bill Withers singing “Hope She’s Happier With Him”… music from the Celestial Orchestra, here on earth. Oh, and a guy named James Brown performed pretty awesomely, too.
So Team Trump plans to just tap the SPR until the walls cave in and there’s only brine coming out — is that it? Blame it all on Democrats and let them deal with it after Trump is gone.
I suppose this fits with their approach to just about everything else, I.e., strip the infrastructure to the bone and then sell off what’s left for scrap. The collapsed oil vaults can probably be excavated and sold as industrial waste salt for highway de-icing and such.
I have read that the SPR infrastructure has outlived its designed life-time and has suffered some degradation from past use. The calculation (assuming that “calculation” describes what is happening in the minds of our rulers; perhaps an optimistic assumption) may be that the future value of the degraded infrastructure is less than the present value (“value” being multi-valent; monetary, political, geostrategic) of the recoverable oil.
If the storage caverns – now in their 40th year of a designed 25 year span – are as in as bad shape as has been suggested then perhaps it would be the right time to drain, inspect, and repair or replace. It doesn’t look like they will be refilled any time soon.
On the refilling bit – anyone have any idea why the quoted DropSite article above has the DOE stating that the amount held is 240 million barrels, while the published weekly inventory lists 311+ million?
And wasn’t the previously posited minimum level of 150 million something to do with a legal limit rather than an operational limit and if so, how is that affected by the new op limit of 70 million?
The 150 million barrels was more about keeping the integrity of the caverns intact.
There is a legal limit of ~250 million barrels but the president has the ability to decide that the situation is dire enough to suspend that limit. Currently the total amount of crude in the SPR is ~310 million barrels of which about ~130 million are light/sweet that doesn’t need to be tapped so they can only take another 60 million barrels of heavy/sour before they trip that limit.
If you take the draw down to 70 million barrels as to only pertain to the heavy/sour part of the SPR then they can still draw about 110 million barrels. Meaning an extra 50 million barrels or an extra 10 weeks at the average withdrawal rate since March of ~5 million barrels/week.
Based on these numbers it seems that Trump thinks he can extend the diesel crunch to after the elections seeing there are 22 weeks of supply left, at current withdrawal rates with the new minimum levels, in the SPR which makes it end of December before it empties.
tsk. Neoliberals do not repair and upgrade anything. They run everything to the limit taking as much loot as they can and then walk away. (They are the Ferengi* in US and EU life. / ;)
*per Wiki:
Ferengi culture, especially as portrayed on Deep Space Nine, is depicted as hyper-capitalistic, focused on the acquisition of profit as the highest goal. Deep Space Nine writers have described how they saw the Ferengi as a satirical presentation of 20th century humans.
me now: the TV Ferengi characters do bare a strange resemblance to Milton Friedman and others in the Chicago School. / ;)
The DropSite tweet is 240 million drawable barrels + 70 million barrels that the DoE is claiming can not be drawn to give us the current 310 million in the SPR.
Doubtful on the selling of anything out of the collapsed oil vaults. You are likely to have major sinkhole issues which will make it very difficult to work with, and I suspect what remains is going to be very toxic.
This is not what those vaults were designed for…
I’ve already seen a couple of tweets from MAGA accounts saying that any SPR problems are Biden’s fault, and Trump is going to fix them. So preemptive blame-shifting, I guess.
Apres moi, le deluge.
First the oil, then the dill pickles.
I’m laughing. Not sure why. Well, it’s mid-summer, the cucumbers are ripe and it’s pickle-making time. / :)
I wish someone more qualified than me would give an engineering overview of the SPR caverns. However, from what I understand I think its very likely that the US will simply tolerate the collapse or partial collapse of the caverns.
One important consideration: the construction of the caverns was only about 20% of the total cost of the SPR. The majority was the cost of purchasing the oil to begin with. AFAICT there isn’t a compelling reason to believe that new caverns could not be constructed if the current ones were rendered totally unusable, though construction time runs on the order of years to (few) decades. The geologic formations in which caverns are built (mined out) are large and may be abundant enough to afford totally rebuilding the SPR (though it would certainly be better to use new caverns for renewable energy storage as has been entertained elsewhere).
Other lay engineering considerations:
– There are actually 60+ caverns spread over 4 sites. So presumably degradation could happen in small chunks: say we only draw down to collapse 15 of the 60, then we still have a lot of existing storage capacity.
– Crude oil is lighter than saltwater, so the caverns get pumped out from the top. The bottom fills in with water (either brine, or fresh water that rapidly becomes brine). From what I understand, the collapses happen due to cracks that no longer self-heal once they’re surrounded by water/brine. This means in all likelihood collapse happens from the bottom up. The caverns are long and skinny, about the relative dimensions of a crayon. It’s not inconceivable that a collapse, once begun, nevertheless preserves the ability to pump remaining oil from the top of the cavern.
I’m pretty sure these considerations are correct but maybe not dominant. It would take getting our hands on a real engineering report to understand the severity of failure scenarios. My point is simply, while risking collapse for a stupid war is obviously a waste, it might not be as disastrous as it sounds. I wonder if the real limiting factor is more procedural, in that this scenario is not at all what the SPR was intended for and military planners may not want to give up the strategic value of the last 200 million barrels.
Given that you live in a country that routinely fails to fix potholes or damaged bridges, I fail to see how repairs of the magnitude envisaged can be achieved in anything less than a geological time scale…
Well, you are not wrong. The problem is that you present “reason against faith”, as I would call it.
As an example, and without giving too much away, in my own state where freshwater aquifer water is vital for western counties’ continuation, but also where Big Ag wants to pump aquifer water without limits and said Big Ag entices legislatures to ignore the science of sustainable groundwater management, legislators captured by Big Ag will actually make the argument that there’s plenty of water below the top level aquifer everyone relies on for life. Plenty of water below that aquifer level because ( I am really not kidding here) that’s where the waters went after Noah’s Flood.
And, OK, maybe, …but when those legislators are told that ancient sea water is salt water and likely filled with heavy metal contaminates after all this time, and is unfit for human consumption and crop irrigation, that seems to have an effect.
I guess my point is you have to argue or reach people in the mental world they live in. And sometimes that world is more biblical than scientific. And I think that a good scientist respecting the deeply held beliefs of others will know how to navigate the situation.
and adding to be clear: there are lower level aquifers below the upper level, fresh water aquifers. But those lower level aquifers, even more ancient than the freshwater aquifers, are not fit for human consumption or crop irrigation.
Is that where the flood waters went after Noah’s great flood? I don’t know. Maybe it is. Maybe it is. Whatever the case, those lower level aquifers are unfit for human consumption or crop irrigation or other human purposes now.
Adding again, and going on much too long:
William Jennings Byran was a Nebraska populist.
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=William+Jennings+Bryan+populiat&ia=web
He and some other populists threw their lot in with the Dem party on the theory aligning with a larger party would help their cause.
The Dem Party first suppressed their platform and then destroyed them as a national party. Until the Great Depression and FDR.
https://teachingamericanhistory.org/loser-wins-william-jennings-bryan-and-the-legacy-of-populism/
See the movie “Inherit the Wind”.
What was it said? ” The Dem party is where good ideas go to be snuffed out”, or something like that. / ;)
(The GOP took up their share of the populists in the end and snuffed out their ideas, too. Think of it as two monopoly parties crushing a competitor.)
About time they called out perfidious Albion
Sending a couple of hypersonic missiles to visit the UK base on Cyprus might focus a few minds back in Blighty.
Since the Brits are occupying a big chunk of Cyprus, I don’t think that the locals would care or not if this happened. They didn’t the last time. And everybody knows that the UK is using those bases to aid in the Israeli genocide of Gaza anyway.
The Iranians didn’t actually mention Cyprus – they did mention Fairford (central England). It’s about 4,500 km from Iran.
Oddly enough, that is the same distance from Iran as Diego Garcia, which the Iranians had a try at in March but were unsuccessful.
A missile travelling to the UK from Iran would pass over a lot of Europe – wake up quite a few more than just Blighty!
They mentioned Fairford as the pretext. Any base could be targeted. I have not checked but I would assume Cyprus is nearest. And Israel has been using it heavily.
True dat, but they already droned Cyprus once and at least one of the drones in that attack punched a big hole in the hangar where the U-2 spy planes are usually stashed (the U.S. had wisely moved them planes elsewhere it seems), so hitting the UK base there is easily just another item on the proverbial drop-down menu for target co-ords.
Is the new PM as ardent a zionist as the recently departed sir?
This is probably at least partially a test of his commitment to the cause and if a vassal with useful operational assistance can be knocked out following change of leadership.
Done for today! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please reload this page and reskim. We have the promised albeit short Saudi nuclear deal updates, some informative added tweets in the energy discussion, and a surprising bit of possible good news at the very end.
While Trump was never known for his composure in the face of disaster, he is just openly expressing the general sentiment that the neocon/neolib warhawks are also feeling.
Iran was not supposed to put up this much of a fight, and it was supposed to be a swift victory as the country was stereotyped as being a third-world, Islamic theocracy. Now that Iran has embarrassed the US and Israel and shown the MIC to be incompetent for all the world to see, our political elite will never forgive the utter humiliation that they have suffered from Iran.
There is too much hubris and too many bruised egos among our leadership in both parties for this to stop anytime soon. Plus, as most of our politicians are in thrall to Israel, they would never defy their bloodthirsty Israeli masters. Because of all of these factors, I think that the nuclear weapons will start coming out shortly out of desperation as a the US-Israeli regime might have already lost from a practical standpoint, but they are sore losers.
This is not going to end by getting rid of Trump as both parties are largely on-board with the Iran war. We will continue to suffer as the citizenry is dragged along with what our elites want as public sentiment does not matter to them. It never has, really.
Hepativore: As you write, “Now that Iran has embarrassed the US and Israel and shown the MIC to be incompetent for all the world to see, our political elite will never forgive the utter humiliation that they have suffered from Iran.”
Which makes one wonder: What happens when these corrupt Usonian elites turn their attention to Cuba? What happens when Cubans resist, having seen what happened in Iraq and Venezuela (left as severely crippled states) or Iran (which fought back and has kept the U.S. of A. away, for now)? Are the foam-at-the-mouth South Florida Cuban bitter-enders going to propose carpet-bombing Havana?
Maybe those South Florida Cuban bitter-enders will be like the Israelis. They will expect US troops to fight and die taking over Cuba whereupon they will land by charted jets afterwards and use phony documents to take over huge tracts of land in Cuba for themselves because their grandparents “owned” them.
They don’t have to bomb. They can just do what they have been doing for decades, embargo the island. Cuba can’t fight back and like the other disasters the US is doing there is almost zero chance of anyone doing anything about it. Cuba will fold, they will not have a choice.
The rules based order is truly dead and gone. Sure it’s been on life support for a while but it’s over now.
Iran knows that Trump is out to destroy not damage their country.
If Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon it’s hard to believe they don’t understand the need for one at this point. Ie North Korea, or Libya.
Truly terrifying times and no end in sight
The big question in Cuba is the exact same one that was faced in Venezuela. A conventional military resistance like that which bigger countries like Russia, China, and Iran is impossible (presumably all significant military sites on Cuba will be rubble within the first few hours), so the only method of resisting the US is a land-based guerrilla war with good old-fashioned guns. Perhaps there will be the odd smattering of drones depending on what can be smuggled/manufactured, but certainly much less than Iran or even Hezbollah.
So, in the face of this situation, does the national will exist to perform this guerrilla war? The most optimistic case I can think is “only” a few hundred thousand Cubans dead and “only” large swathes of the cities and towns bombed with the US’s plentiful JDAMs.
Venezuela answered this for themselves with a resounding “No.” The will to do this did not exist, and so they are ultimately going along with a pseudo-occupation by the US and seeing where that path takes them. Perhaps it eventually takes them to guerrilla war anyway if the daily humiliations become too unbearable, or perhaps the socialist party loses power due to mass disillusionment and we see an Allende -> Pinochet situation.
While Cuba is not Venezuela, this very nearby example is, I think, fairly indicative of what the Cubans will do if US troops come knocking and US planes fly overhead – I believe they will fold without a prolonged campaign. I will admit though that the main factor going against this prediction is that Cuba has been granted an abnormally long time to prepare itself, as Iran has kept the US very busy. What this means is that Cuba has 1) at least a good few extra months to do what preparations it can do under siege conditions; 2) the rare privilege of being able to learn lessons on precisely how to defeat US military aggression due to just watching Iran, *and* 3) an example close by in Venezuela of what surrendering to the US entails.
It’s unfortunate that China and Russia are basically out of this military scene entirely, but it is what it is. Russia breaking through the blockade to deliver fuel was admirable, but insufficient. Similarly, China’s aid via solar panels is the dictionary definition of too little, too late, to the extent that I wonder if Xi is purposefully snubbing Cuba for not getting on the Reform and Opening Up program sooner and making all this trouble for itself. I suppose a country of 1.4 billion just can’t find the change between the couch cushions to help provide the critical supplies for a long-time friendly country of 11 million while in perhaps the worst crisis of their history.
Re the Cuban capacity for resistance, I’d recommend Richard Gott’s Cuba: A New History, pubbed in 2003 to very good reviews. In a nutshell, Castro’s assault on Batista in the 50s had many, many forerunners in Cuba’s history, dating back to the currents of resistance to Spain, intertwined with resistance to slavery, in the 16th c. It’s a country where the overused metaphor “X is in their DNA” has some plausibility regarding the Cuban capacity to fight an externally-imposed regime. That Rubio has indicated some hesitation regarding trying a Venezuelish coup suggests he’s quite aware of this.
The cuban exile mafiosi and the Yanks will quite likely do everything at all possible to push the Cubans towards resistance and towards the realisation that folding was a mistake at least as suicidal as resistance from the start would have been.
Unlike in Venezuela there will be no semi/pseudo occupation but the real deal.
And between the hardcore fascists in Washington and the Miami gangsters and all the frustration and humiliation in other theaters there is zero chance that they won’t try to make an example of the Cubans, to punish, crush, rape, break and humiliate to the maximum extent.
I fully expect systematic mass murder and torture to weed out the commies for good and that probably will only be the start of what the Epstein cannibals will do.
Expect Cuba to become a new hotspot of the global organ trade, child trafficking and so on.
Replying to: Gretzn
July 24, 2026 at 12:34 pm
…and to the all the sensible comments above regarding Cuba. During the last few weeks the US State Department has been announcing new sanctions against all kinds of Cuban financial and economic entities, industries, and government enterprises, and those individuals that are in charge of them. The foreign companies that have been investing in different areas of the Cuban economy, from tourism to mining to ports have departed the country; they are (rightly) scared of becoming the target of US sanctions themselves. Don’t forget, according to the US official line, Cuba is “a state that sponsor terrorism” and the worst menace to Western democracy.
The tightening of the embargo and all the related sanctions that go with it have gone to a level never seen before, in scope and depth. Meanwhile, in Havana, on a good day people are suffering 30 hours of blackouts followed and 3 to 4 hours daily (max) of power, then back to darkness. Most neighbourhoods don’t have running water regularly. Trash is not being collected or is collected to a bare minimum. Hospitals and schools are closed or open only at an almost symbolic level, meaning they can barely function. The situation is exponentially worse outside of Havana. It is not uncommon to find people cooking on the sidewalk using charcoal or wood, sometimes using a big pot to make a large meal that several can share (no electricity means the stuff in your fridge can be inedible when you try to cook it and eat it). People in Cuba are exhausted and stressed to the max. The exodus towards Central and South America via Guyana and Suriname (Cubans don’t need visas and/or can easily get visas for flying to those countries) is by the thousands weekly; from there people try to get into Brazil or go elsewhere. Cuba’s population is the oldest in Latin America at this point, and even some of the elderly are trying to leave. In short: don’t expect any popular resistance to an American military intervention, because there’s simply no energy among the people for that, plus Cubans blame their own government for the situation, and to a great extent they are right: the Cuban government, particularly post-Fidel Castro became a force against any meaningful change that could open up the economy and society to some fresh air and good ideas, and a lot could have been done by the government before the first Trump administration and then Biden made life extra difficult for Cubans. And the government elites (and few private entrepreneurs close to that elite) are not suffering the same punishment and poverty that ordinary Cubans are suffering daily. Most of that elite, I bet you, is dying to make a deal with Trump and Rubio, and Trump and Rubio are just waiting for the green light from the old Cuban exile in Florida.
i am too exhausted to deal with potential gusano nonsense, right now.
cuba libre!
John Helmer has an article about it. Basically Putin put the kibosh on the additional transports of fuel to Cuba. Somehow Poutin thinks he can endear himself to US and Trump. And Poutine has form: disclosed transcripts with conversations btw Poutine and various US leaders highlight Poutine’s thinking for instance about Iranians and Arab/Islamic world in general, which was quite simplistic.
IRGC to UK: We warn the Kingdom of England, which has had the greatest involvement in the recent US and Israel aggressions, not to further burden its own case; any base used for aggression against Iran is a legitimate target for us.
If the war continues, and everything suggests that it will, almost inevitably, the IRGC will strike targets in Europe or regional European interests. As Europe comes under attack and gets involved, it is not clear how the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the US/Iran conflict avoid getting linked, even if it is not explicit. Europe facilitating attacks deep into Russia, Iran striking European/NATO capabilities, there may be some Article V invocation. Its not clear that any side wants this result, but it will become unavoidable at some point.
We have already seen the conflict expand into the Houthi/Saudi region, if it goes to Europe we will have a full-on Eurasian conflict. Further, the more each side “escalates to de-escalate” the more conflict will spread horizontally, and the impossibility of shutting things down will diminish as well.
KD: “As Europe comes under attack and gets involved, it is not clear how the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the US/Iran conflict avoid getting linked, even if it is not explicit.”
I think that at least here in the Naked Capitalism comments section, the groundlings have linked NATO expansion / Ukraine as Trojan horse to devastating Iran for the sake of the colonial / settler state of Israel, the aircraft carrier of Euro-Usonian imperialism in West Asia.
Many of the “inexplicable” actions of Turkiye become more readily understood if you think of that country finding itself between two active fronts in this colonialist war. Likewise, the strange flailing and attempted suicide of Armenia. Likewise, the acceptance of the current mess that is the government of a Syria.
There is also a high likelihood that Russia will view its war as tied to Iran’s war (it is, but I mean Russia’s view). If Russia destroys the 500 European drone manufacturing targets it has listed at the same time as Europe declares war on Iran, a true S-storm would occur with Europe and the US never weaker – remember Russia has its article 4 demand that NATO retreat to western Europe.
I can’t even envision how that scenario would play out, aside from the high likelihood of very bad decisions that would continue the trend that brought us to the point of disaster.
Russia could set off the S-storm by hitting a lot fewer than 500 targets. How about the 14 (IIRC) LNG importing sites?
The potential for expanded global conflict is enormous. Pakistan is making noise against the Houthis and is party to a security agreement with the KSA that seems to compel Pakistan to joining the fray.
Other tinderboxes,
Pakistan/India
Pakistan/The Baloch
India/China
The entire Horn of Africa
I’m sure I’m missing some. Iraq and Syria seem likely self detonate.
I guess my point is the escalation ladder looks like a bad choice, but here we are.
On Cyprus and the “extraterritorial” colonial tumors, Akrotiri and Dhekelia. The sooner they are destroyed, the better. I have been commenting for a couple of years that it is more than obvious that the U.K. is using the bases in Cyprus to supply Israel. The U.K. government maintains that the bases are there for security and to grow prize-winning rhododendrons. Neither the Iranian government nor I seem to believe that.
Whether the Iranians will aim missiles that far depends on their strategy of destroying the rings of bases around them in order. If the strategy is that after Syria and Jordan are neutralized, the Iranian armed forces will attack Israel, well, Cyprus can go into that sweep. The distance from Nicosia, Cyprus, to Haifa, Israel, is abut 260 miles.
As to the current scandal in Italy about the flights from Sigonella, now estimated to be more than 500, the controversy rages. Italy seems to be out of Iran’s range, which is small consolation.
As ever, when dealing with the Anglo-American colonialists, it isn’t that Italy is relatively safe. It’s that Italy is completely expendable. We’re like Kurds, but with pizza.
PS: I have been keeping an eye on Oman, after Yves Smith sent me into some interesting background information. Note that Iran has now “neutralized” Oman’s side of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Oman, because of its size, age, and remarkable geography, can in a sense sit out much of the conflict — so long as the Americans don’t get too brutish. I suspect that the Omanis will try to stay on the sidelines, and I suspect that there are still highly active diplomatic channels between Iran and Oman. One would hope that Usonians would be smart enough to work with the Omanis, but Usonians are too self-absorbed to end this war.
PPS: And don’t count on the Democrats. The Partito Democratico in Italy was modeled after the U.S. Dems, and the Partito Democratico is just a bunch of excuses and hand-waving held together by more excuses and hand-waving.
Ummm southern Italy is very likely within Iran’s range (Khorum-E extended is proposed to reach 4000 km, and was proposed to be behind the Iranian missile attack on Garcia Diego, if it wasn’t a false flag).
Would Piedmont be unduly bothered by destruction in Sicily?
And would Italians rally round the flag or turn on the perfidy of Meloni?
The attack at Diego Garcia was a false flag. Origin not from Iran. Iran denied it, and the point was to freak out Europeans about Iran.
The edge of Sicily is within range for Iran with acknowledged range drones, and if the range is 3200 km, all of Sicily can be hit. There are rumors of a Khorramshahr-Extended with 4000 km (Prof David Oualalu, for one), and I guess in a few days we will see if the rumors have backing among the new weapons that no one has seen, which Iran has promised to show in the next round.
https://www.rferlo2zxgv23tct66v45s5mecftol5vod3hf4rqbipfp46fqu2q56ad.onion/a/32810660.html
Note that Bulgaria and Romania are in the Khorramshahr range (a slightly smaller payload and its range increases to cover these countries.
Italians are like Kurds, but with pizza.
I am totally stealing that.
But the curds have their wheys.
and wheyfores
Alright youse guys. Stop it with trying to butter up the site admins and definitely cut the cheesy puns.
Too late. The puns have already o’kurd.
Ouch! This mini-thread is becoming quite the calabberation.
On the udder hand, I am a bit ashamed of myself for milking this theme so much.
Time to put it out to Pasteur?
I had my first $70 tank fill up since the summer of ’22.
I should consider myself lucky I don’t drive a diesel truck. $5.25/gallon.
Heckuva job, Donnie!
If Donnie really blows up things, you will one day look back at a $70 tank fill with nostalgia. Trump no longer seems to care at what he does to the world’s economy so long as he can profit from it. Those latest round of tariffs are just the latest example.
I needed gas for the lawn mower, I filled my tank too from 1/2, yesterday. Today the gas station across from my favorite coffee regular rose $.11 over night.
That said parallels to Hitler spring 1945 are stark
Parallels to Hitler: why, it’s almost the Donroe Doctrine in western hemisphere and mid-east resemble Hitler’s march through the 30’s and early 40’s.
Wonder if the world will join together with Iran and others (Cuban pearl-clutch?) against the US transgressions.
Nothing new Under The Sun?
I am reminded of my local bike shop sticker: Image of Dr. Che Guevara on small-output skeletal motorcycle: “When the Revolution comes, will your bicycle be ready?”
Can one prep for The Jackpot? Attenuate the bend of the arc of misery?
It’s $6.89 for diesel here in coastal central CA. I filled my sprinter up when it was 3/4 full and it cost me $70. Then it was 20 cents cheaper, last week. Not good.
$6 diesel here in the Deep South seems quite likely by Labor Day. That will have some “shock effect” around here; lots of farmers and Good Ole Boys drive diesel pickups.
and use diesel for their tractors – “if” the harvest covers costs.
Won’t they just blame the Mullahs and Antifa?
‘NEW: RETIRED GENERAL KEITH KELLOG SAYS TRUMP MUST “DECAPITATE” IRAN… WOAH💣
“DECAPITATION MUST continue… TAKE IRAN’S ISLANDS, give POTUS LEVERAGE”
“I’m not negotiating with these guys… we’re gonna DICTATE the terms of the WAR” ‘
It gets aggravating when they bring on these has-beens and war mongers while describing them as experts. Just the other day they had an “expert” on TV here in Oz giving his opinion on the war on Iran and it was no less that ex-Admiral James G. Stavridis. Hardly anybody down here would know who he is but I sure as hell do-
https://spoilsofwar.substack.com/p/admiral-fabuloso-thumps-his-tub
Ret. General Kellog followed Ret. General Flynn as national security advisor in the first T admin. This was after the FBI ousted Flynn within 22 days of his appointment as nat. sec. advisor on the flimsiest of reasons. Flynn wanted to rein in the intel agencies and color revolution efforts. My guess is that Kellog is completely onboard with whatever the intel agencies want. He’s their man “not in Havana,” not yet anyway. /heh
My (not totally unserious) theory on Trump 2: Electric Boogaloo is that everyone knows he’s off his rocker, but they keep humoring him, just to stop him crying, much as you would do for a baby. They went into this thinking that he would soon ascend to the great McDonald’s in the sky, but much to their chagrin he’s been hanging on for much longer than they assumed. No grand conspiracies – with Trump, the dumbest reason is probably the closest to being correct.
He’s surrounded by neocons. Suzi Wiles was Netanyahu’s campaign manager. They all love T being off his rocker. So much easier to manipulate. Wiles is supposed to “manage” T. People say she’s failing at that task. I say she’s succeeding. / imo
Thanks for the insight.
Could Mz Wiles be Trumps Dr. Morell?
Dr. Morell: https://allthatsinteresting.com/theodor-morell
Stranger things have happened in Washington.
Wiles is very likely Israeli intelligence and Trump’s handler. I imagine Miller has been sidelined a bit, as I’m pegging him being more about election success/ furthering along project 2025. He can’t be too happy about the war.
Did Chris Whipple miss a little something?
lol, I could not finish it for the puffy little clouds coming off my screen, heh heh.
To go all Lord of the Rings on you, Grimetta Wormtongue controlling the puppet king Trumpeoden, reporting to Sarumanyahoo.
The scripted lamentations from Rubio, Miller, and Trump struck me as an abusive drunk father who had a bad night playing the ponies and set out to beat the kids to restore his sense of masculine dominance and make the wife party love him again.
I keep getting reminded of the scenario that turned out to be necessary for his father, Fred. According to biographical details (multiple sources) his dementia got so unmanageable the family finally decided to build him a “pretend office” in the estate so he could go to “work” without disrupting the actual real estate operation.
Will wiles build him a “pretend Oval Office” in or near Maragrifto? There is a historical precedent.
Electronic intifada showed destroyed MQ9s on the ground (Which seem not to be reported as they are not shot down) and cratered container bunkers on the ground – no way everyone survived. Its not a winning sign when a nation is unable to honor its dead’s sacrifice.
I assume the US used its freshest munitions first – this last gasp attack will be using the oldest and least reliable (30% failure to explode in Africa for the fresher) of everything – yet another headwind aside from a lack of assembly points or radar/early warning systems, etc. etc. etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igBf7Lj4wbg
‘🇸🇦Abdulsalam Saleh
@abdulslam2017
Your Excellency, the President of the United States,
In response to your post a few hours ago on Truth Social, we would like to inform you that you have miscalculated, and we invite you to review the terms of the officially signed contract between the Ministries of Energy of both countries, which is entirely devoid of these newly introduced conditions you are now bringing up.’
I’m thinking that Trump blew this deal up on purpose. Such a deal would have to be approved by Congress so maybe Netanyahu rang Trump and told him that Israel does not want a nuclear Saudi Arabia and will use their trained seals in Congress to kill any approval of that deal. So rather than being humiliated this way, he elected to kill the deal himself.
Well, if Trump blows the deal maybe MBS can claw back the billions to Kushner.
Trump’s mental and physical deterioration seems to be accelerating and the Saudi’s seem to have underestimated that reality.
Agreement incapable is one thing, it still assumes some degree of rationality which is no longer in evidence.
Based on his behavior Trump is bonkers, depicting himself as Jesus Christ healing Epstein was a clue and his behavior since doing that has become substantially less rational.
He is a Mad King.
I am inclined to give the Saudis the benefit of the doubt. They gave Trump a chance knowing that Trump being Trump would lead to where we are now – an offer then CAN refuse. Then when the Chinese or Russians take a run at the same deal they will just say: Trump, you had your chance but you blew it.
As Americans have “turned their backs” on DONALD J. TRUMP (their Only Hope), I have decided that they are a nation of LOSERS who will never be GREAT. While I have selflessly dedicated My LIFE to This Country, my “Reward” has been the Ingratitude of the Vermin and SCUM I have always known all of you to be. I therefore have No Choice but to direct my Loutish, Drunken Secretary of WAR to launch a FULL-SCALE NUCLEAR FIRST STRIKE against Russia and China, to bring about the JUDGMENT you all richly deserve. You could have been a Country with all the Cards, that no one would have ever seen anything like, but you threw away your one Chance with a WINNER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
(satire)
You know, reading this, I thought you were gonna follow “China” with “the US”. It then occured to me that narcissists literally would blow themselves up rather than get outed as mere humans.
I still remember when Ukraine was going to force Russia to negotiate when they invaded and briefly held Russian territory of no strategic value; I guess Trump learned the wrong lesson from that gambit.
I think Trump watched too much Homeland; thinking whacking key Iranian leadership was going to result in moderation.
Kharg means Snake in Farsi.
From Due Dissidence:
Support For Iran War is LOWEST in POLLING HISTORY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myMLH4oLVqg
(The “participation trophy” is a nice dig. / ;)
So we’ve seen how devastating is the aftermath of nasty things burning, like the recent warehouse fire in LA. Rather than trying to knockout the Iranian grid, what if they’re of a mind to produce another Tehran style dirty bomb by striking infrastructure that burns nastily? Just an unpleasant thought. If you just want to maim and kill, there are a lot of creative ways to accomplish that.
“🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 US refiners are buying Venezuelan crude at the fastest pace since 2017, with July arrivals on track to reach 804,000 bpd.
The reason is simple: wildfire risk threatens Canadian supply just as refineries from Texas to Louisiana are running at full capacity. Venezuela is…” pic.twitter.com/6UZZdgFGVg
Turning out to be useful. Seems like yesterday Venezuela was being called a “nothingburger”.
Wildfires could happen in Venezuela too.
Why don’t all the countries just come out and say they will pay Iran to use Hormuz?
Well, since Trump seems to be keeping all the sales money, I hope Rodriguez got her cut upfront.
-Trump said Israel “would join in two minutes if I ask them to,” but added that “we don’t need anybody” to launch a new operation against Iran.
-He also said there would be “consequences” for Israel joining the strikes, hinting at Iranian retaliation against Israel.”
Trump administration and Iran currently pretending Israel isn’t the USA’s largest “aircraft carrier”.🙄
Well, since Congress approved a merger, Isr is now officially part of the US military. It’s now officially a target. It is a US military installation.
The USA might invade Cuba, but with what troops?
And the Cuban Government might surrender, but what about the Cuban people?
They may only have rifles and other small arms, but that’s enough to make an occupation expensive and manpower intensive.
The usual method of dealing with that is increased brutality, which creates more resistance and it does not look good…
I don’t think the USA has the gold, the troops or the will to do more than make life increasingly ugly for both the Cuban or the American people.
It’s not necessary to prove once again that Human stupidity is infinite, but it’s happening anyway.
What is stopping the US from just bombing Cuba for months on end until Cuba offers an unconditional surrender?
The worst case scenario for the US is that this doesn’t cause the Cuban people to outright break, but devastates them and makes it so the eventual occupation force doesn’t have to contend with a complex urban environment, but rubble and debris. That’s… it. The genocide in Gaza has finally, definitely proven that the “international community” is mythical, and does not need to be pandered to at all. You can, in fact, just bomb the shit out of a group of people for years on end and if there isn’t a strong regional ally around – and Cuba doesn’t have one – nobody will do anything but write letters and try and use international organizations that are designed like car crumple zones to absorb and disperse energy without harming the occupant (the US, in this case).
China and Russia are so unwilling to stick their necks out that they won’t even break off *trade* with the people committing genocide, and that was just with Israel. Who’s left in the “international community” with any real ability to influence American foreign policy and who would even *theoretically* be on the side of Cuba and against the US? The EU is the only power I can think of in that category, and everybody already knows what they’re going to do and say in response to the US carpet bombing Cuba – nothing.
Modern drone warfare changes everything. South Florida is well within medium and large sized drone range of Cuba. A few burning condos in Miami and an attack on the US Military headquarters situated in Tampa can definitely bring the pain home. Iran could supply lots of said drones to Cuba. They already are manufacturing them at high speed. (I would not be surprised if Cuba were already doing this in preparation for “kinetic” activities by the Americans.)
Be safe.
Manufacturing with what fuel?
The USA could light up Cuba nonstop without bothering to worry about where to refuel.
Manufacturing them was in reference to Iran.
Countries like Cuba have learned from years of blockade and sanctions to keep their Strategic Oil Supply (SOS) truly strategic. There will be fuel from somewhere available.
Homestead Airforce Base in South Florida is only 205 miles “as the crow flies” from Havana. That item can cut both ways.
Now think of if Cuba were to be found to have intermediate range missiles.
Why would Cuba fire at South Florida? Where many relatives live…in many instances? A fair amount of aid reaching Cuba is coming from South Florida.
Remember the class and demographic make up of the Cuban Exiles living in South Florida. Except for the master stroke pulled of by Fidel and Company with the Mariel Boatlift, most Cuban exiles are of the “Doctors, Lawyers, Indian Chiefs” variety. thus, the upper-class European people of Cuba. Not widely mentioned is that Cuba imported a lot of slaves from Africa during the Layenda Negra days. The population of Cuba today has a high percentage of ‘mestizo’ and ‘mulato’ people.
The “White Exiles” might send remittances back home, but those ‘exiles’ are mainly “white” and those monies go to mainly “white” relatives. Racism is still around in South and Central America. It is also an equal opportunity attitude. Look up the “brown bag test” still clandestinely used here in the North American Deep South for an example.
Brown Bag Test: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_paper_bag_test
I remember seeing an episode of the television comedy drama program “Frank’s Place” doing a show on the Brown Bag Test.
Stay safe.
I’m done trying to figure out the ways other people can die because people here in the USA can’t figure out what to do about the state of things.
Cuba will not be trying to go to war with the USA. Please…stop…
The USA started the blockade of Cuba BEFORE the latest West Asia dustup for a reason.
Agreed. I would caution however that the reasons for the imposition of said blockade of Cuba will not withstand close scrutiny. There is too much corruption of both an official and private nature to give moral or ethical cover to this exercise in hegemonic “displeasure.”
The blockade stays at least as long as the US is disrupting other Gulfs.
It’s not about morals or ethics. It’s about covering a flank (so to speak) during war…and other old scores thrown in the mix.
“They may only have rifles and other small arms, but that’s enough to make an occupation expensive and manpower intensive.”
Recent history (Iraq, Afghanistan) demonstrated that IEDs are the way to go for an insurgency — not rifles and small arms.
Less recent history (Mozambique, Namibia) had already shown that mines were a good way to go for anti-colonial wars.
Even older history (Vietnam) showed that booby traps were the way to go to deal with invaders.
I hope the leaders of the Cuban armed forces have been duly training soldiers, militiamen/women, and other paramilitary personnel in the construction and effective deployment of all those exothermic contraptions.
please see: ‘war of the flea”
one of the best books ive ever read regarding asymmetric warfare.
Here we go again
Dow jumps 300 points as oil retreats on report of Pakistan push for new Iran-U.S. peace talks: Live updates (CNBC)
I wonder how many MSM “journos” stole a page out of DJT’s book and are now playing the market to cash in on these announcements?
The much-vaunted collective wisdom of “The Market” seems to be about that of a paramecium.
Netanyahu to be in the US Monday-Wednesday to meet with Trump and attend Graham’s funeral
subheader: If Netanyahu makes the trip, it would suggest that major US escalation against Iran is on hold, but leaders have pulled off deception campaign ahead of attack on Tehran in the past
Two of the most hated men in Iran together, at the funeral for the third most hated man in Iran…
Hmn.
This may be a ridiculous stretch, but perhaps Wednesday night when Iran swiftly retaliates against the sudden surprise, Netanyahu is coincidentally continents away, strictly due to official business, of course.
The Sykes-Picot Agreement is rotting out past its Expiration Date while the Globalists preach that it’s embedded in the Old Testament. Reality will hit really hard…
Iran’s New Leader Is More Open to Pursuing a Nuclear Weapon, U.S. Intelligence Says
Today’s episode of are you fucking kidding?
This ought to be fun
Saudi Arabia strikes Houthi-held Hodeidah, Yemeni group says (Al Jazeera)
Little reason to expect them to stand down and concede. Saudi Arabia failed in suppressing the Houthis, despite help from Obama, then Trump’s direct bombing. Why would it work now?
It is within range of US ground-based air force flying out of Djibouti…..
Houthis missiling the heck out of pipelines and airbases in response per Mid East Spectator
Crude futures dipped slightly on “talks” hopium but now back at 90 and heading upward.
In the absence of any coherent strategy Trump makes noise to distract the masses from Iran’s ‘winning’ strategy and from his falling poll numbers. 1) Iran is constricting the Arabian Peninsula by shuttering nearby US bases, by restricting naval movements around the land mass, by conducting a war of attrition which depletes the US ‘s capacity to retaliate & by following an asymmetrical approach of diplomacy, violence, and posture to persuade its neighbours that banking on the US is a bad bet. 2) Iran is aiming its efforts at Israel, not only kinetically,( at the moment, peripherally) but with the idea to split US (popular) resolve in backing Israel First above all other domestic concerns. Israel creates its own bad press and US domestic support is fading naturally, so Iran need not interfere to much, 3) Iran continues to pressure the Trump regime with actions that promote its collapse: a) High treasury interest rates, b) Inflation, c) high gas and diesel prices, d) policies that deplete reserves, e) policies that threaten the world economy.
If Trump could read and think, he might consider perusing Pape’s ” Bombing to Win”.
mario had a flag officer on, which i thought was rather remarkable. dude is obviously a superpatriot, but still.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0YFydeLBAI
i thought it was important.
computer actin weird so im shutting down for night.
Offtopic: my silly comment made it into the post! 🐸
If your silly post made it into the post, it wasn’t silly then. :)